IBM陷入雙重困境

????收入下降很大一部分來自于對華硬件銷售，在美國國家安全局(NSA)爆發間諜丑聞后，中國開始限制從美國公司購買硬件產品。上一季度，IBM來自中國的收入下降了23%。上個月，羅睿蘭對中國進行了為期3天的訪問，據報道稱是為了重建近30年的商業信任。

????羅睿蘭迅速地壓縮了疲弱的硬件業務。1月末，就在IBM表示硬件業務拖累整體收入后不久，這家公司宣布將低端服務器業務以23億美元出售給聯想，較去年春季提到的40億美元價格有很大折扣。

????IBM還將從43.1萬個職位中裁員1.3萬人，這是它10億美元重組計劃的一部分，旨在幫助公司實現到2015年每股收益20美元的目標。3月初，有報道稱IBM的硬件業務職位將縮減達1/4，這還不包括它把低端服務器業務出售給聯想之后受到影響的那7,500人。

????就在IBM努力精簡硬件業務的同時，羅睿蘭正在鼓吹有望帶來未來增長的一些新計劃：云、大數據、移動應用和其Watson 人工智能系統。它的智慧地球（Smarter Planet）計劃結合了云技術與分析，去年增長了20%。基于云技術的服務收入大幅增長了69%。而且，3月初，羅睿蘭鼓勵開發者開發基于Watson的應用。

????推進新領域尋求增長讓人想起近10年前IBM開辟個人電腦之外的業務、深耕軟件和IT服務領域（2005年，IBM個人電腦子公司賣給了聯想）。此次的不同之處是，羅睿蘭試圖開拓的有些領域（比如分析）符合IBM的強項，但其他領域（比如云計算）卻存在以低成本模式蠶食公司核心IT和軟件業務的風險。

????鑒于所有這些動向，如果IBM不能實現到2015年每股收益20美元的目標，也是可以理解的。更有力的一個手段是回購。過去20年中，這家公司已通過回購將流通股數量從23億股減少到了10億股。去年末，這家公司新增回購資金150億美元，未來必能通過降低（流通股數）分母推高每股收益。

????越來越多的人表示，需要關注的是每股收益數據中的分子，尤其是在收入下降的情況下。IBM手頭的110億美元現金可以有更精明的用處，購買前景良好的小型數據、云或人工智能公司。一位知名的賣空人士稱，IBM大舉回購可能是走弱的一個跡象。

????在企業信息技術這樣競爭激烈的行業，一家公司要保持領先地位，裁員、回購和出售薄弱業務都是必要的舉措。但這些舉措也只能幫到這么多。如果公司身處科技行業，而投資者看不到增長，他們將剔除股價中的成長估值。每股收益對于投資者確實很重要，但還比不上股價。（財富中文網）

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????A good portion of revenue declines came in hardware sales to China, which has curtailed purchases from U.S. companies in the wake of the NSA spying scandal. IBM's revenue from China declined 23% last quarter. Rometty paid a three-day visit to China last month, reportedly to restore trust in a business relationship that stretches back three decades.

????Rometty is also wasting no time cutting back on the weak hardware business. In late January, shortly after IBM said hardware weighed down overall sales, the company announced a sale of its low-end server business to Lenovo for $2.3 billion, a discount to the $4 billion price cited last spring.

????IBM is also cutting as many as 13,000 of its 431,000 jobs as part of a $1 billion restructuringplan aimed at helping the company meet its goal of $20 EPS by 2015. Late last week, reports emerged that IBM was cutting up to a quarter of its hardware jobs, beyond the 7,500 workers affected by the sale of its low-end servers group to Lenovo.

????While IBM is trimming back its hardware division, Rometty has been trumpeting its initiatives that could lead to future growth: cloud, big data, mobile apps, and its Watson AI system. The company's Smarter Planet initiative, combining cloud technology and analytics, rose 20% last year. Revenue from cloud-based services rose 69%. And last week Rometty encouraged developers to create apps powered by Watson.

????The push into new areas of growth is reminiscent of the push IBM made nearly a decade ago, away from PCs -- selling that division to Lenovo in 2005 -- and further into software and IT services. The difference this time is that while some of the areas Rometty is pushing into, like analytics, suit IBM's strengths, others like cloud computing risk cannibalizing its core IT and software businesses with lower-cost models.

????Given all these moving pieces, it would be understandable if IBM didn't meet its $20 EPS target by 2015. One of the more powerful levers it has is buybacks, which have reduced its shares outstanding to 1 billion from 2.3 billion over the past 20 years. The $15 billion the company added to its buyback arsenal late last year will surely help prop up the earnings-per-share figure by shrinking the denominator.

????Increasingly, some are suggesting that it's the numerator in the EPS figure that needs attention, especially as long as revenue is declining. The company has $11 billion in cash on hand that could be better directed at shrewd purchases of small but promising big data, cloud, and AI companies. One prominent short-seller is suggesting IBM's heavy buybacks could be a sign of weakness.

????Layoffs, buybacks, and selling off weak divisions are necessary moves for a company trying to stay ahead in a competitive arena like enterprise IT. But they only take you so far. If you're in tech and investors aren't seeing growth, they'll take it out of the stock price. As important as EPS is to investors, it's not as important as the simple price that the market is paying for a stock.