特斯拉是“終極動力股”嗎？

????如果這個目標真的能夠實現，屆時特斯拉的規模將超過林肯（Lincoln）和保時捷（Porsche）等豪車品牌的美國分支。這兩個老字號豪車品牌都有更多樣化的產品陣容、長期的經銷商網絡、成熟的營銷和廣告策略。特斯拉如果真的能賣出預期的數字，那么其銷量的半數將來自現有的Model S轎車，其它一半則來自明年年初才會量產的Model X七座跨界車。

????這里并不是要給特斯拉澆一瓢冷水。它已經證明自己具有生產一款復雜、先進且外觀誘人的產品的能力。但無論是特斯拉自己的內部預測，還是投資人對其股票的追捧，都基于同樣一個預期，那就是特斯拉未來依然會延續最近的大熱勢頭。這是一種危險的假設，原因如下：

????? 特斯拉是一款富人車。在均價85,000美元的水平線上，可以說買特斯拉的人沒人會在意汽油錢。特斯拉在續航里程上的短板，也說明了它絕對不會是車主家里的唯一一輛車。如果這些人的新鮮勁兒過去了，特斯拉的訂單儲備就會縮水，也會像其它廠商一樣需要為銷量打拼。

????? 特斯拉的規模越大，運營的復雜性就越強。由于它直接銷售給終端顧客，免去了特許經銷商的環節，它必須開發一個自己的服務中心網絡來進行售后維修保養。另外它獨特慷慨的保修條款規定，車主在使用三年后，可以以原價50%的價格將車賣還給特斯拉。這種做法可能會催生一個二手特斯拉的專門渠道。“尋找阿爾法”上的一位博主寫道：“等到車主覺得他們的車不像一年前那么誘人和罕見，特斯拉可能會吃進大量有三年車齡的二手車。在我看來，這是個潛在的麻煩。”

????? 電池電力可能最終被證明是一種過渡性技術。最近電池成本的降低速度已經放慢了，特斯拉曾經承諾要在2017年生產出價格在35,000美元左右的Model 3。要實現這個目標，特斯拉的電池成本需要下降30%。相比之下，豐田（Toyota）最近的舉動非常出人意料。它與特斯拉簽訂的電池供應協議即將期滿，但豐田并未續約，而是準備加倍投入研發氫燃料電池。燃料電池的成本下降速度要快于普通電池。而且燃料電池的擁躉們認為，車主肯定會更喜歡充電速度相對更快的燃料電池，而不是要為充電等上好幾個小時。

????? 外部事件的影響。《消費者報告》（Consumer Reports）雜志曾經對Model S大加吹捧，但最近該雜志也報道了它的一些常見故障，包括門把手失效，中控觸屏白屏，導致車內大部分功能不能使用等等。汽車網站Edmunds.com也找了Model S的麻煩。更多此類報告無疑會影響特斯拉到目前為止非常正面的聲譽。

????不過目前來看，這些潛在的烏云似乎都沒有遮住特斯拉在帕洛阿爾托總部的陽光。特斯拉仍然堅持在2020年之前年產50萬輛汽車的中期目標。這在很大程度上要取決于Model X是否有能力維持當前的勢頭。特斯拉已經大大提高了資本和研發支出，以確保Model X的順利發布（雖然已經推遲了一年）。

????摩根士丹利的分析師喬納斯認為，Model X的銷量將會更加可觀，但不是由于它的燃油經濟性，而是它升級后的信息娛樂系統，以及獨特的“鷹翼”式后車門。他還表示，如果Model X沒有贏得所有的年度車型大獎，他會非常失望。他并不是唯一一個這樣想的人。埃隆?穆斯克和其他很多祈禱特斯拉繼續保持當前勢頭的人當然也會這樣想。（財富中文網）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Selling that many cars would make Tesla larger than the U.S. arms of luxury makers like Lincoln and Porsche, both of which have more diverse product portfolios, long-established dealer networks, and refined strategies for marketing and advertising. Half the sales would come from the aging Model S sedan and the other half the new Model X seven-seat crossover that goes into production early next year.

????This is not to take anything away from Tesla, which has demonstrated that it can create and manufacture a complex and sophisticated product with demonstrated customer appeal. But its own internal forecasts, as well as the swelling of its share price, are based on the expectation that the future will unspool in an orderly fashion identical to the recent past. That’s a dangerous assumption to make – for several reasons:

????? Tesla is a car for rich people. With an average price of $85,000, it is safe to say that few Tesla owners are buying one to save money on fuel, and the car’s range limitations mean that a Tesla is never the only car in an owner’s garage. At some point, these same people will stop viewing Tesla as the flavor of the month, its order backlog will shrink, and Tesla will have to scrap for sales like other manufacturers.

????? The bigger Tesla gets, the more complex its operations become. Since it sells directly to customers and eschews franchised dealers, it will have to develop a network of service centers to handle repairs on the cars it sells. Its unusually generous warranty, which obligates it to buy back used cars for 50% of their original base price after three years, could create a second channel of used Teslas. “Tesla will be eating a lot of three-year-old cars that aren’t as sexy or rare as they were a year ago,” wrote one Seeking Alpha blogger. ‘To me, it sounds like a potential mess.”

????? Battery power may turn out to be a transition technology. Cost reductions have been slow in coming, and Tesla needs a 30% improvement in order to build the $35,000 Model 3 it has promised for 2017. Toyota’s recent move was eye-opening. It is allowing a battery-supply deal with Tesla to expire and instead will redouble its work on hydrogen fuel cells. The cost of fuel cells is coming down faster than batteries and fuel cell proponents believe drivers will prefer a relatively rapid refuel with hydrogen to waiting hours to recharge their batteries.

????? Outside events can intrude.Consumer Reports, which raved about the Model S, reported a few “quirks” recently that included door handles that failed to activate and a center touch screen that went blank, blocking access to most of the car’s functions. Edmunds.com has had trouble with its Model S too. More reports like that will dent Tesla’s heretofore shining reputation.

????? None of these potential clouds appear to darken the sunny view from Tesla headquarters in Palo Alto. Tesla is sticking with its middle term goal of building 500,000 cars a year by 2020. Much will depend on the ability of the Model X to maintain the current momentum – and mystique. Tesla has steeply ramped up spending on capital expenditures and R&D to make sure the launch, already a year behind schedule, is a success.

????Morgan Stanley’s Jonas believes the Model X will sell more based on features like its upgraded infotainment system unique “falcon-wing” back-seat doors than fuel economy and he will be disappointed if the Model X doesn’t win every major car of the year award. He isn’t alone. So will Elon Musk and a whole lot of Tesla investors who pray that the momentum behind this amazing stock keeps building.