別被忽悠了：美國仍存在赤字問題

????美國國會預算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）最近公布了新的預算估算報告。這份報告已經讓評論人士迎來了一系列感覺良好的時刻。他們表示，債務已經得到控制。他們指出，聯邦醫療保險（Medicare）的預期成本將繼續下降。他們還宣稱，根據國會預算辦公室的估算，未來的利率水平也將下降，利息支出因而將減少。在一片歡呼雀躍聲中，值得指出的是，有兩個事實可能會延緩他們宣布贏得這場赤字戰爭“勝利”的時間。

????首先，和歷史正常水平相比，美國政府的債務總額仍處于高位。目前，聯邦政府債務占美國GDP的74%，除了二戰前后的7年，這是該比率有史以來的最高水平。二戰結束時，美國的政府債務占GDP的比率為106%，但隨后快速下降，原因是低利率、低通脹以及維持了二三十年的強勁經濟增長。如今我們只能盼望著這樣的經濟發展勢頭能在短時間內再次出現。

????但是，政府債務占GDP比率預期不會下降。今后十年內，這個數字預計將緩慢上升，隨后還將迅速增長。以前，人們擔心政府債務將達到很高的水平，比方占GDP的74%。而現在，這已經成為現實。在“經濟大衰退(Great Recession)”之前，就算布什政府大幅度減稅，增加社會福利，提高國內支出并擴大軍事行動規模，那時的政府債務占GDP比率也只有現在的一半。

????有意思的是，在當時的情況下，許多人都認為美國負擔不了喬治?W?布什總統的開支計劃。如今，在政府債務占GDP比率達到74%，并且預期還將進一步增長之際，這些人卻覺得沒什么可擔心的。

????然而，就像國會預算辦公室所提醒的那樣，赤字增多會擠占投資空間，降低經濟增長率，降低美國民眾生活水平的提升速度。更廣義地講，如果居高不下的政府債務占GDP比率不產生任何政治和經濟成本，許許多多國家就會在“經濟大衰退”之前出現高額凈負債。畢竟，如果政府債務占GDP比率無關痛癢，許多國家就可以毫無顧忌地增加開支并減稅。而實際上，政府債務占GDP比率超過70%的國家少之又少。無論是以往，還是和別的國家相比，如此高的政府債務都不是好現象。

????其次，目前預測的赤字水平可能會讓人們無端地產生自滿情緒，原因是這樣的預期既暗含了經濟好轉，還體現了政府支出和收入趨勢的改善。從下圖可以看出，在國會預算辦公室預測的基準情景中，今后5年內，政府赤字占GDP的比率基本上都將保持在3%以下，隨后略有上升。

????The Congressional Budget Office recently put out new budget projections and commentators have had a series of feel-good moments about it. Debt is under control, they say. Projections of Medicare costs continue to fall, they point out. The CBO’s estimates of future interest rates, and hence interest payments, have come down as well, they echo. Amidst all of the congratulations, it is worth pointing out two facts that might give one pause in claiming “victory” in the deficit wars.

????First, the overall debt level is already high relative to historical norms. At its current level of 74%, the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP is at its highest ever, except for seven years around World War II. At that time, the debt ratio peaked at 106% at the end of the war and then fell rapidly, due to low interest rates, inflation, and a generation’s worth of strong economic growth that we can only hope to see again anytime soon.

????Now, however, the debt-to-GDP ratio is not projected to fall. It is projected to creep up slowly over the next decade and then more rapidly in the future. It used to be the case that people worried about whether the debt would increase to high levels – like 74% of GDP. Now, we have arrived there. Before the Great Recession, even with the major tax cuts, new entitlements, increased domestic spending and the expanded military operations of the Bush administration, the debt-to-GDP ratio was just half as big as it is now.

????It is interesting that many people who thought former U.S. president George W. Bush’s agenda was unaffordable back when the debt-to-GDP ratio was half as big as it is now feel that a ratio of 74% is nothing to worry about as debt is predicted to rise further.

????But higher deficits, as the CBO reminds us, will crowd out investment, reduce economic growth and reduce the increase in living standards for the population as a whole. More generally, if sustaining a high debt-to-GDP ratio were politically and economically costless, one would have seen many more countries, before the Great Recession, in high net debt territory. After all, countries could spend more and cut taxes with impunity if the debt-to-GDP ratio didn’t matter. In fact, very few were above 70 percent. It is not a good place to be historically nor comparatively.

????Second, the current projections of the deficit could prompt unwarranted complacency because they reflect both an improving economy and underlying spending and revenue trends. The figure below shows the CBO’s baseline projection that deficits are basically flat at just under 3% of GDP over the next five years, then rise slightly.