eBay、惠普等科技公司分拆，對云計算的未來有何預示？

????SAP并沒有坐以待斃。為什么？因為在科技平臺的轉型中，“站錯隊”的經濟后果可能極為嚴重。

????我們不妨看一下目前十家最大的企業科技巨頭的市值（SAP也是其中之一）：它們的總市值超過1.3萬億美元。但如果再看看2012年到2014年的IPO數據，你就會發現，這些IPO只創造了600億美元的市值（Workday一家公司就貢獻了其中的25%）。如果把同一時期十巨頭的并購行為也計算在內（在SAP以83億美元收購Concur之前），我們發現收購總額只有300億美元。其中大多數收購標的并不是真正意義上的云技術。

????所以說，盡管最近企業科技領域的一連串IPO讓很多人興奮不已，但現在還沒有到云技術向傳統平臺發起“總攻”的時候，甚至差得還遠。正如前文數字所說，傳統技術占據的市值與最近的IPO和并購所創造的市值相比，相差何止十倍。

????這意味著，我們將會看到收購領域的“軍備競賽”持續升級，同時，加入IPO大軍的企業科技公司也會越來越多。不僅傳統科技公司會進行更多的收購行為，一些新興科技巨頭很可能也要大舉收購，以保持競爭優勢，比如Saleforce.com和Workday。

????不過，收購并不等于全部。更有意思的是前文提到的企業分拆與剝離。傳統企業科技公司現在正想方設法地使自己變得更專注，更苗條，進而成為更靈活的競爭者，以便更好地在這個全新的世界中競爭致勝。（對新型科技公司進行定向收購，幾乎肯定是這些傳統科技公司在分拆后會采取的策略。）

????不管怎樣，信號都是明顯的：目前平臺轉型正在發生。這一次，傳統科技公司恐怕難以依賴老舊的業務吃老本。上一批初創公司即將變成新的“傳統”公司，同時一些“守成者”則試圖瘦身成類似初創公司那樣的企業。這又是另一種逆變。

????不管是收購還是分拆，似乎沒有人愿意自發地從內部變革自己。人們大概忘了：Concur一開始也是一家傳統軟件公司，后來它做了個艱難的決定，付出了高昂的代價，才轉型成一家軟件即服務類公司。該公司CEO五年前曾表示：

????“我不相信大公司能實現這種轉型。且不說什么‘基因密碼’，有多少家公司愿意承受這種痛苦？企業都不想重塑自己……現金流會被摧毀，而且你需要裁員。轉型的過程是非常艱難的，而且非常突然。如果你的市值是1億美元以上，轉型會非常艱難；如果超過10億美元，那就是不可能的事情。”

????至少從這個角度來看，目前還沒有多大改變。（財富中文網）

????本文作者Scott Kupor是安德里森?霍洛維茨基金的常務董事，全面負責該公司的運營。他此前曾任惠普公司全球客戶支持與軟件即服務副總裁兼總經理。安德里森?霍洛維茨基金的聯合創始人馬克?安德里森目前同時出任惠普和eBay的董事會成員。拉爾斯?達爾加德在加盟安德里森?霍洛維茨基金前，以合伙人身份創辦了SuccessFactors公司，目前仍是該公司的顧問。安德里森?霍洛維茨基金也是Nicira公司的投資人。

????譯者：樸成奎

????SAP is not standing idly by. Why? Because the financial consequences of being on the wrong side of technology platform shifts can be monumental.

????Take a look at the market cap of the 10 largest enterprise incumbents (of which SAP is a member): There’s more than $1.3 trillion of market cap in this group. But if you look at the 2012 to 2014 class of enterprise IPOs, we’ve created only about $60 billion in new market cap (and one company, Workday WDAY -1.08% , is around 25% of that amount). Add in enterprise M&A by the top incumbents in that same timeframe (before the $8.3 billion SAP-Concur acquisition) and we’ve seen only $30 billion in acquisitions. And most of those acquisitions were not really of modern cloud-based technologies. There’s much more to come.

????So despite all the excitement about the number of new enterprise technology IPOs of late, we haven’t seen the final salvo in the battle. Not even close. As the above numbers illustrated, there’s more than 10 times the amount of legacy market cap outstanding compared with the amount of new market cap created through IPOs or acquisitions to date.

????That means we’re going to see the acquisition ‘arms race’ escalate, and number of new enterprise IPOs continue to grow. And not only will we see the legacy players engage in more acquisitions, but we will likely see acquisitions from some of the larger new incumbents — like Saleforce.com and Workday — as they seek to stay ahead of the curve.

????Acquisitions alone don’t tell the entire story, though. Perhaps even more interesting is the corporate splits and spinoffs I mentioned earlier. The legacy enterprise players are now reconfiguring themselves into more focused, slimmer, and presumably more agile players so they can better compete in the brave new world. (To further complicate things, making targeted acquisitions of new technology companies will most certainly be part of the legacy players’ post-split strategy, too).

????Either way, the signal is clear: There’s a platform shift happening. This time, the legacy players won’t survive by relying on their old lines of businesses. And as previous startups are becoming the new legacy players, some of the older incumbents are trying to reconfigure themselves into startup-like businesses. Another inversion of sorts.

????Acquire or split. No one seems to be going at this organically, from within. Something that’s been forgotten is that Concur started out as a conventional on-premise software company before making the difficult and sometimes costly shift to being a SaaS company. As its CEO noted over five years ago:

????“I don’t believe large companies can make the conversion. Forget their genetic code. How many will take the pain? Companies won’t reinvent themselves… Cash flow will get crushed. You have to layoff. The transition is really hard and it’s very sudden. If you’re north of $100M it’s hard. Over $1B it’s impossible.”

????There, at least, not much has changed.

????Scott Kupor is the managing partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he is responsible for all aspects of running the firm. Previously, he was VP/GM of Global Customer Support & Software-as-a-Service at Hewlett-Packard. Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, currently sits on the boards of HP and eBay. Lars Dalgaard founded SuccessFactors before joining Andreessen Horowitz as a General Partner, and remains a consultant there. Andreessen Horowitz was also an investor in Nicira. Follow Scott on Twitter, @skupor