2015年五大科技趨勢

????初創(chuàng)公司估值泡沫將破裂

????每隔幾周，都會有一家虧本的初創(chuàng)公司得到投資者的天價估值。圖片社交網站Pinterest被估價50億美元，數字支付公司Square被估價60億美元，照片信息服務Snapchat甚至得到高達100億美元的估價。今年該是泡沫破裂之時了。門羅風投公司的風險投資家溫基?加納森表示：“今年將會有許多引人注目的初創(chuàng)公司跌下神壇?！鳖A測技術業(yè)泡沫將何時破裂，是硅谷專家們最愛玩的游戲。盡管過去幾年有過許多悲觀預言，但初創(chuàng)公司的估值依舊節(jié)節(jié)攀升。加納森所在的公司投資了打車服務商Uber（估值410億美元）等雄心勃勃的公司。他說，現(xiàn)在的勢頭促使投資者進一步推高那些還沒有站穩(wěn)腳跟的公司的估值，這就像在玩搶椅子游戲，到最后肯定會有投資者損失一大筆錢，有的現(xiàn)在已經虧本了。電子商務初創(chuàng)公司Fab曾經得到過10億美元的估值，卻在2014年崩潰，這也許昭示著未來的景象。（門羅也是Fab的投資者。）不過，加納森也表示，擁有真正優(yōu)秀業(yè)務的初創(chuàng)公司依舊能得到很高的估值，至于其他公司，好吧，“當事態(tài)不妙時，沒有人會通知記者的?！?/p>

????Start-up valuation bubble springs some leaks

????Every few weeks, a money-losing start-up gets a sky-high valuation from investors. Pinterest, the online bulletin board, gets a $5 billion valuation. Digital payments company Square is priced at a hefty $6 billion. Meanwhile, Snapchat, the photo messaging service, gets an even bigger $10 billion valuation. This year, look for some air to go out of the bubble. "There will be some really high-profile blow ups," says Venky Ganesan, a venture capitalist with Menlo Ventures. Timing when the tech industry will deflate is a favorite Silicon Valley parlor game. Despite dire predictions over the past few years, startups keep rising in value. Ganesan, whose firm has invested in high-fliers like ride hailing service Uber ($41 billionvaluation), says momentum is pushing investors to bid up valuations in shaky businesses like a game of musical chairs. In the end, some investors will lose a lot of money, he says, if they haven't already. Fab, an e-commerce startup that had a valuation over $1 billion before imploding in 2014, may be a sign of things to come. (Menlo was an investor.) Still, Ganesan says that companies that have a real business will continue to command high prices. As for the others, well, "No one is calling reporters when bad news is happening," he says.