隨著火箭發射變便宜：500強公司將競逐“太空資源”

????“這次離成功也就一步之遙。”

????請留意SpaceX公司創始人埃隆?穆斯克說的這句話。1月初，該公司一枚一級火箭助推器拖著熊熊烈焰，墜落在大西洋的一個鉆井平臺上，他隨后發表了一番“行動總結”。它聽起來倒是很符合這位億萬富翁一貫的語言風格——很有喜感地輕描淡寫。這條發布于Twitter的評論還附帶一段視頻。從中可以看出，這枚火箭降落得太快太陡，隨即爆炸起火，變成熊熊火球。這與穆斯克和SpaceX公司當初計劃的軟著陸相去甚遠。

????多數媒體認為，這次發射徹底失敗，但穆斯克認為它“接近成功”。熟知民用航天業的專家則給出了一個恰當評論：很明顯， SpaceX公司將在2015年竭力回收一枚一級火箭助推器和它的9個火箭引擎，以重新使用。一旦成功，這將使得航天發射的成本減半，從而徹底顛覆商業發射業。

????火箭發射（及墜毀）時驚心動魄的轟然巨響背后，隱藏著巨大的成本，而這正是Space X公司的可循環火箭技術不僅將影響航空業，還將影響通訊和衛星成像等其它行業的原因所在。依靠這種技術，太空探索的成本可能會從現在的6500萬到7000萬美元降至3000萬美元左右，讓那些此前從未考慮過這種事情的企業和行業也能嘗試一下。

????NewSpace Global公司是一家航天信息供應商，該公司首席執行官迪克?戴維稱：“一旦發射成本下降，新客戶就會涌現。但很多潛在感興趣的客戶直到現在都還沒意識到，太空探索將對其商業模式產生什么影響。”

????SpaceX公司想回收一級火箭助推器的原因很簡單：推進器的研發和制造過程都耗費了巨資，燃料用盡后，它們就會被當做垃圾丟棄。如果該公司能完整回收推進器，翻修后重復使用，就能顯著降低航天業歷來被認為高不可攀的巨額成本。

????不過人們仍有很多疑問：比如，翻修要花多少錢？一枚推進器能重復使用多少次？而航天業分析師認為，成本還會不斷下降。穆斯克曾表示，他將全力以赴，最終讓發射價格降到1000萬美元以下。但僅僅讓發射成本減半，就會帶動發射服務的需求大幅增長，從而使太空軌道迎來大批新成員。

????這些情況會對《財富》500強公司產生何種影響還有待觀察，但近期肯定會出現兩大新動向。首先，國防、航天及科技咨詢公司金牛座集團執行合伙人卡瑞薩?克里斯滕森稱，企業及個人所獲得的航天技術服務會變得更加質優價廉，也更容易獲取。這也許不是什么巨大的突破，但一定是意義深遠的進步。目前凡是由軌道衛星采集并傳送的通訊、影像及其他數據，各公司都要花大價錢才能獲得。在某些行業，衛星服務的高昂成本使一些小型公司無法與大型企業有效抗衡。克里斯滕森稱：“由航天技術提供的更便宜、更先進、也更優質的服務將是一樁大買賣。價格更低的衛星服務帶來的好處不容小覷。”

????其次，大批新面孔和大量資本將涌入軌道領域——其實已經是這樣了。就在上周，SpaceX公司宣布將在未來五年打造一個覆蓋全球的微型衛星網絡。本周該公司又宣布，谷歌公司和投資銀行富達投資公司已對該項目投資10億美元，使SpaceX公司估值達到100億美元。另一家名為OneWeb的衛星網絡初創公司——由去年九月從谷歌離職的前衛星網絡項目負責人格里戈?惠勒創立——上周也宣布，該公司已獲得理查德?布蘭森的維珍集團和高通公司的投資，并且將打造自己的衛星網絡。這個耗資20億美元的項目計劃從2018年開始發射648顆小型衛星，每顆重285磅，而且每顆都需要進入一個運行軌道。

????分析師們樂觀預計，航天發射將會創造各種新機會，這反過來又會進一步促進航天領域的投資。

????“Close, but no cigar. This time.”

????Behold the words of SpaceX founder Elon Musk, offering a post-op summary of the fiery crash-landing of one of his company’s first stage rocket boosters aboard a floating barge in the Atlantic earlier this month. It smacked of the billionaire entrepreneur’s typical comedic understatement. Video accompanying the comment, delivered in a tweet, shows the rocket coming in too fast and too steep before exploding in a magnificent fireball. It was a far cry from the soft landing Musk and SpaceX had planned.

????Most of the press called it a failure. Musk called it “close.” Experts familiar with the commercial spaceflight industry are calling it what it is: evidence that 2015 will be the year SpaceX manages to successfully bring a first stage rocket booster and its nine rocket engines safely back to Earth for reuse, potentially cutting the cost of space launch in half and upending the commercial launch industry.

????But lost in the whiz-bang awesomeness of rocket launches (and crashes) is the way SpaceX’s reusable rocket technology could impact industries beyond those associated with space, such as telecommunications and imaging. The cost of space access could drop from its current range of between $65 million and $70 million to something more like $30 million, or even $20 million, putting it within reach of companies and industries that couldn’t consider it before.

????“When launch costs drop, new customers will emerge,” says Dick “Rocket” David, CEO of space industry information provider NewSpace Global. “But most of the customers that will be interested don’t even realize today what impact access to space will have on their business models.”

????SpaceX wanted to bring its first stage booster back to Earth for a simple reason: the rocket boosters that are typically jettisoned after their fuel runs out cost millions of dollars to develop and manufacture. If the company can return a stage to Earth intact for refurbishment and reuse, it can dramatically reduce what has long been considered a cost of doing business.

????There remain questions: how much it costs to refurbish a rocket booster and how many times a single booster can be reused, for example. And space industry analysts think costs could go lower still. Musk has suggested that he’s eventually shooting for a sub-$10 million launch price. But merely halving the cost of launch could stoke increased demand for launch services and bring a flood of new entrants into the orbital domain.

????How all this impacts the average Fortune 500 firm remains to be seen, but two things are almost certain to happen in the near term. First, the services that companies and individuals currently get from space will become better, less expensive, and more accessible, says Carissa Christensen, managing partner at defense, space, and technology consultancy Tauri Group. That’s not necessarily a groundbreaking development, but it’s certainly a meaningful one. Companies spend a whole lot of money on communications, imagery, and other data collected and relayed by orbiting satellites. In some industries, the high cost of satellite services keep smaller companies from competing as effectively with their larger counterparts. “Cheaper, cooler, and better things from space is kind of a big deal,” Christensen says. “The benefit of much cheaper satellite services is not trivial.”

????Second, a huge number of new entrants and new dollars will pile into the orbital domain—and in fact already are. Just last week, SpaceX announced plans to build out a network of micro-satellites over the next five years that would blanket the globe in internet. This week the company announced that Google GOOG -3.10% and investment bank Fidelity FNF -0.80% have invested $1 billion in the project,valuing SpaceX at $10 billion. Another satellite internet startup known as OneWeb—launched by Google’s former satellite internet project lead, Greg Wyler, who left the company in September—also announced last week that it has secured funding from Richard Branson’s Virgin Group and Qualcomm QCOM -1.16% to create a satellite network of its own. The $2 billion project plans to launch 648 small satellites weighing 285 pounds each starting in 2018, each of which will require a ride into an orbit.

????Analysts are optimistic that space launch activity will create new opportunities that could in turn further boost investment in the space.