美國軟件工程師神秘消失之謎

????美國缺軟件工程師嗎？其實不缺。

????盡管硅谷巨頭們紛紛要求美國政府修改移民政策，允許他們聘請外國電腦專家來填補軟件工程師職位的缺口，但一家硅谷公司的數據統計卻顯示，或許并沒有這個必要。

????位于加州的Bright.com公司利用大數據分析法把求職者與招聘者進行了配對，然后在上個月發布了一份報告。報告顯示，認為美國本土缺乏高水平軟件工程師的說法可能根本站不住腳。根據這家公司的統計，對美國H-1B工作簽證需求量最大的前十類工作中，只有三類缺乏合格的本國求職者前來應聘。

????Bright.com公司首席科學家大衛?哈德泰克認為：“有人認為我們需要更多的外國科技工作者，但這種看法并不正確。我們在雇傭外國求職者時應該更有針對性。”

????要注意的是，每當有人利用數據證明有爭議的政策問題時，總會引起一些人的懷疑。因為我們很容易過度關注某些方面的數據分析以證明某人的觀點，從而忽視了其它可能導致更多問題的因素。

????有鑒于此，Bright特別小心地避免了一些陷阱，而且使它的數據適用于更宏觀的層面。這家公司首先研究了美國的簽證的申請數據，然后把企業招聘所用的工作描述進行了修改，把它寫得更寬泛了一些（因為對于一家公司來說，把工作描述寫得非常詳細是很普遍的現象，導致通常只有臨時工才能滿足這些苛刻的要求。）然后它再利用自己獨有的Bright Sccore系統，把教育背景和求職者對職位的符合程度考慮進去，然后把這些工作描述與45天內美國的100萬名活躍求職者（來自2000萬人的樣本庫）進行了配對。

????分析結果并不令人吃驚，但是頗有些讓人苦惱。對H-1B簽證需求量最大的崗位是電腦系統分析師。雖然Bright公司認為，對于這個職業，很少有美國求職者算得上合格，但是與軟件工程師等職業相比，它畢竟是一個相對低薪的工作，而且只需要一個兩年制的學歷。要知道，H-1B項目主要目的是為了招攬高技術人才。

????對于電腦編程師、軟件開發人員和電氣工程師等高薪崗位，每有一個外國人申請一次這些崗位的H-1B簽證，就有一個以上的美國求職者也符合崗位要求。而對于每一個金融分析師的H-1B簽證來說，則有12名美國求職者符合同等要求。

????這個結果可能會激起某些人的排外主義情緒，不過在這些分析結果的背后隱藏著復雜的現象。如果你問紐約或硅谷的科技公司，找編程工作的求職者是否符合要求，他們的第一個反應就是：“如果你知道哪個美國人正在找這種工作，請你告訴我。”

????哈德泰克說：“必須要和兩個世界對話，一個是硅谷，一個是硅谷以外的美國其它地方。舊金山灣區的確存在科技人員短缺的問題。”?

????he U.S. has an engineering shortage, right? Well, not exactly, no.

????While the titans of Silicon Valley are calling for immigration reform that will allow them to nab foreign computer gurus to fill open engineering jobs, one of their own has crunched the numbers and discovered that may not be necessary.

????Bright.com, a California-based company that uses big data analysis to pair jobseekers with employers, released a report last month that showed that the supposed dearth of high-skilled engineers in the United States may be fiction after all. In fact, Bright's analysis reveals that for the top 10 jobs where H-1B visas are requested, only three do not currently have enough qualified American jobseekers to satisfy demand.

????"The main conclusion that we need more foreign tech workers is not true," says David Hardtke, Bright's chief scientist. "We need to be more targeted in our use of this program."

????To be sure, using data to argue about contentious policy issues should always prompt skepticism. It's too easy to focus on particular aspects of any data analysis to prove one's point and overlook those items that may raise more questions.

????Bright took great care to avoid several pitfalls and make its data applicable on a large scale. It looked at H-1B applications and rewrote company's job descriptions to make them more generic (it is common for a company to write a job description so specific that only one temporary worker fits the qualifications). Using the company's proprietary Bright Score, which takes into account education and fit as well as proximity to the job, the data crunchers then compared the job descriptions with 1 million active U.S.-based jobseekers (out of a total pool of about 20 million) over 45 days

????What they found was both troubling yet unsurprising. The most requested position when applying for an H-1B is computer systems analyst. Although Bright determined that this position has few qualified American candidates, it is also a lower-paying job compared to jobs like software engineer and requires only a two-year degree. The H-1B program is designed to recruit high-skilled workers.

????For higher paying jobs, like computer programmer, software developer, and electronics engineer, Bright found more than one domestic job candidate for every H-1B application. And for financial analysts, the company found 12 local candidates for every visa application.

????That evidence seems enough to get xenophobes up in arms, but these analyses are complicated. Ask tech companies in New York City or Silicon Valley if the pool of applicants for programmers is meeting their needs, and their first question will be, "Why? Please tell me you know someone who is looking for a job."

????"You have to talk about two worlds: Silicon Valley and the rest of America," Hardtke says. "There is, indeed, a shortage of tech workers in the Bay Area.".