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          專欄 - 財富書簽

          兵馬未動,糧草先行:后勤緣何壓倒戰略

          Michael Schrage 2013年02月19日

          《財富》書簽(Weekly Read)專欄專門刊載《財富》雜志(Fortune)編輯團隊的書評,解讀商界及其他領域的新書。我們每周都會選登一篇新的評論。
          保羅?肯尼迪的《勝利的工程師》和史蒂芬?布迪安斯基的《布萊克特的戰爭》是兩本最新的有關二戰史的著作,這兩本書都指出,戰爭勝利與否的決定性因素是強大的后勤和嚴密的組織管理,而不是戰場上的雄韜偉略。

          ????相比較而言,人們越了解帕特里克?布萊克特,就越會被他的事跡所震驚。從防空火炮到反潛裝備,從戰略轟炸到原子彈,整個二戰之中,布萊克特始終居于盟軍武器裝備的設計、理論以及決策的中心。這位曾在1948年角逐諾貝爾獎的物理學家曾經是英國海軍的一名軍官,他通過將簡單的數學、實驗以及數據分析進行極其精巧的跨學科綜合應用,徹底改變了他所參與開發的每一件武器裝備。

          ????經過在海軍和拉瑟福德郡卡文迪什實驗室的歷練,布萊克特深知如何把事情搞定。他的傳記作者認為,布萊克特早就應該為大眾所知。“布萊克特堪稱他那一代科學家中的傳奇人物,因為他能將對物理學與數學的深厚功底與非凡的實踐技能結合起來,”布迪安斯基寫道。“當他去進行實際操作時,他還會展現出其他同事所稱之為的‘卓越的深思熟慮’的天賦。”

          ????《布萊克特的戰爭》一書不僅是一本有關科學家或軍事家的傳記文學,它還是一本精心寫就,有著詳實史料的精英科學家在戰爭時期動向的社會歷史著作。本書中講述了希特勒崛起之后,德國的學術界開始驅逐猶太裔科學家。而當時的英國,無論從機構上還是組織上都沒有做好準備,有效地利用亨利?蒂澤德和布萊克特這些由科學人才轉變而來的頂尖科學家,把他們變成掌握技術的企業家。

          ????“傳統的軍事理論認為,科學家的任務就是開發‘武器和裝備’然后交到部隊的手上就可以了,” 布迪安斯基寫道。“但是如今,科學家們卻可以深度參與到曾經只有軍事指揮官才能觸及的項目和行動中去。”

          ????高大英俊、散發著領袖氣質的布萊克特自然就是其中的典型。除了超高的智商和堂堂的儀表之外,布萊克特的影響力還體現在他的分析、實驗以及建議可以令同事或是合作者產生醍醐灌頂感覺的天賦。他能夠啟發他人的智慧,激發他人的靈感。

          ????開發新的雷達系統或是在飛機上增加副油箱所需的分分秒秒都決定著前方成千上萬名士兵和平民百姓的生死。訓練技術人員或是團隊成員以開發似乎不斷增多的技術改進開始變成一種不受贊賞的人力資源的負擔。能令對科學一竅不通的軍隊指揮官理解精密的統計數據分析開始成為一種科學的藝術。布萊克特所開創的“運籌學”就是后勤學作為新的新經驗科學所取得的重大突破。事實上,他將軍事上的作戰區轉化為未來戰術和武器的試驗場。

          ????By contrast, the more closely one looks at Patrick Blackett, the more impressive he appears. From anti-aircraft gunnery to anti-submarine warfare, strategic bombing and the atomic bomb, Blackett was at or near the center of Allied military design, doctrine, and decision-making throughout the war. This British naval officer turned physicist (he went on to win the Nobel Prize in 1948) transformed every military service he counseled through the clever, interdisciplinary application of simple mathematics, experimentation, and data-driven advice.

          ????A polished product of the Navy and Rutherford's Cavendish Lab, Blackett knew how to get things done. He richly deserves to be better known; his biographer delivers. "Blackett would become legendary among his fellow scientists for his ability to combine physical insight, mathematical insight and extraordinary practical skills," writes Budiansky. "[H]e displayed what one colleague would call 'his remarkable facility' of thinking most deeply when he was working with his hands.'"

          ????Far more than a scientific or military biography, Blackett's War is also a finely wrought and well-sourced social history of elite science's wartime mobilization. Hitler's rise, German academe's expulsion of its Jewish scientists, and the growing realization that Britain was institutionally and organizationally unprepared to effectively utilize its scientific talent turned elite scientists like Henry Tizard and Blackett into technocratic entrepreneurs.

          ????"The traditional military view was that the scientists' role was to develop 'weapons and gadgets,' hand them over, and that was that," Budiansky notes. "But now scientists were intimately involved in what previously had been the exclusive purview of military commanders, in running operations."

          ????Tall, handsome, and blessed with command presence, Blackett led by example. His influence derived not just from an intimidating intellect and style but a genius in making his analyses, experiments, and proposals palatable to his military colleagues and collaborators. He made others think better. He inspired insight.

          ????The time needed to develop a new radar system or add "drop tanks" to planes determined the fates of tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians. Training technicians and crews to exploit seemingly incremental technical enhancements became a human capital imperative that was often underappreciated. The ability to make sophisticated statistical analyses persuasively accessible to innumerate commanders emerged as a new scientific art form. "Operational research" -- Blackett's baby -- broke through as a new empirical science of logistics. In effect, he turned military theaters of operations into research laboratories for future tactics and weaponry.

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