共和黨迎來新敵人：游擊大師奧巴馬

??? 要找到出路，共和黨還應研究奧巴馬的另一項游擊戰術——它來自2012年的競選活動。奧巴馬政府頒布了一條政策，要求天主教組織在其醫療方案中加入計劃生育條款，這就像給了共和黨人一把瞄準自己的手槍。當時，這項政策似乎是一記政治昏招：為什么要在大選年和天主教會及其強大的選民群體發生沖突呢？

???而現在看來，這樣做非常聰明。它在所有共和黨候選人都不愿談到這個問題的時候把“計劃生育”幾個字悄無聲息地放進了共和黨的基本詞匯表里。和墮胎【蓋洛普（Gallup）的調查顯示，稍多于一半的美國人認為計劃生育有利于生活】不同，計劃生育幾乎是美國人生活中普遍接受的一部分。

????要想給共和黨抹上極端主義色彩，還有什么途徑能比表明他們不想讓女性進行計劃生育更好的呢？特別是將在下一屆總統選舉中發揮作用的獨立單身女性？同時，在有頑固的社會保守派人士參加競選的情況下，為什么不讓共和黨自行瓦解呢？而且完全不會留下一點蛛絲馬跡。

????正如奧巴馬方面預料的那樣，共和黨主要候選人里克?桑托勒姆成了這一觀點的代言人。他說計劃生育不道德，不必為其提供保險。桑托勒姆隨后試圖劃清個人與政策的界限，他堅持說自己并未計劃剝奪數百萬女性的計劃生育權，但最終慘淡收場。這讓共和黨蒙羞，也成了2012年大選中共和黨許多自我傷害中的一次。

????從歷史角度而言，具有諷刺意味的一點是，長期以來現代共和黨人一直把他們的政治生涯想象成一場游擊戰，從上世紀80年代里根革新派觀看電影《巴頓將軍》（Patton， “全力進攻！讓他們血流成河！”（巴頓鼓舞士氣的演說詞——譯注）時歡呼雀躍，到前眾議院議長紐特?金里奇問那些可能成為總統候選人的共和黨成員，他們是否已經準備好像杰迪武士對抗達斯?維達那樣和自由主義進行斗爭，都是如此。拉斐爾?里德在他協助領導的基督教右翼意外崛起時也說過：“我在臉上涂上迷彩，在夜間行進。直到最后一刻，這一切才會結束。”

????當然，左翼也有自己的游擊策略，特別是現代社會改良主義者索爾?阿林斯基。他的“激進派規則”把重點主要放在剖析和擊敗政治對手上。其中一條規則是，“權力不僅包括你擁有什么，也包括敵人認為你擁有的什么”。另一條是“找到目標，凍結它，讓它人格化，兩極化。”為奧巴馬贏得政壇聲望的是他承諾要團結民主、共和兩黨。上任第一年，他一直在辦公室忙于如何避開共和黨人而實現目標，比如刺激經濟，進行醫保改革和規范金融行業。現在，連任讓他信心十足，而且他也找到了分化、削弱敵人的方法。

????當共和黨領導人展望接下來的一系列財政危機時，他們會饒有興致地大談特談政府倒閉或違約問題，但他們不應該忘記去年的教訓：在本屆政府遞過來一把供你自殺的手槍時，一定要分外小心。

????譯者：Charlie Zheng

??? In crafting a way forward, Republicans should study another Obama guerrilla tactic -- this one from the 2012 campaign. The Obama campaign handed Republicans a pistol to aim at themselves in the form of its rule forcing Catholic organizations to offer birth control in their health plans. At the time, the rule seemed politically dumb: Why pick an election-year fight with the Catholic Church -- and its powerful voting block?

??? In retrospect, the tactic was brilliant, slipping the words "birth control" into the Republican primary water table when none of the GOP candidates wanted to talk about it. Unlike abortion (Gallup shows a slim majority of Americans describe themselves as "pro-life"), birth control is a nearly universally-accepted fixture in American lives.

????So what better way to paint the GOP as extremist than to suggest the party wants to take birth control away from women, especially independent single women who will help decide the next presidential election? And, with staunch social conservatives in the race, why not let the party self-implode? No fingerprints needed.

????Right on script, leading GOP candidate Rick Santorum became the poster boy for the view that birth control is immoral and doesn't need to be covered by insurance. His attempt to parse the personal from policy -- insisting he didn't plan to take birth control away from millions of women --failed miserably, tarring the GOP and adding to the party's many self-inflicted wounds with voters in 2012.

????The historical irony here: Modern conservatives have long used the imagery of guerrilla war in their pursuit of politics, from Reagan revolutionaries in the 1980s celebrating the movie "Patton" ("Wade into them! Spill their blood!") to former Speaker Newt Gingrich asking potential candidates if they were ready to be Jedi knights against the Darth Vaders of liberalism. Here's Ralph Reed on the surprise rise of the Christian right he helped lead: "I paint my face and travel at night. You don't know it's over until you're in a body bag."

????Of course, the left have had their own guerilla strategists, especially the late community organizer Saul Alinsky, whose "rules for radicals" focuses largely on how to dissect and defeat political opponents. "Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have," is one. Another: "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it."

????President Obama rose to political fame on a promise to unite red and blue America. He spent his first years in office end-running Republicans -- on the stimulus, on healthcare reform, on Wall Street regulation. Now, emboldened by his re-election, he has figured out how to divide and weaken his foes.

????As GOP leaders look toward the next series of fiscal crises and entertain explosive talk of government shutdowns or defaults, they shouldn't forget the past year's lesson: Beware when this White House is handing you a suicide pistol.