10億女性將如何改變商界？

????首先，國際最具影響力女性排行榜將變得更加多元化。隨著幾個發展中國家的經濟增速繼續遠超美國，全球經濟重心將發生轉移。2040年上榜女性將更多地來自博茨瓦納、巴西、埃及、薩爾瓦多、中國和智利等國。

????事實上，有可能到將來某個時候，排行榜將不再像今天這樣，繼續分為美國女性和國際女性兩大塊。隨著經濟影響力由多個經濟大國分執，排行榜可能會從地域上反映新的經濟力量中心，出現“亞洲最具影響力女性排行榜”、“歐洲最具影響力女性排行榜”以及“美國最具影響力女性排行榜”。

????排行榜可能還會包括更多的創業家和白手起家的女性，取代那些經營成熟公司的管理者。由于最大的發展中國家經濟增長迅猛（包括“金磚四國”的巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國），它們的經濟比歐洲和北美發達國家更具活力。受科技推動，這些市場所發生的變化將使它們非常適合孕育顛覆性的觀念和改變世界的企業。這意味著有才華的女性將有機會加快晉升的步伐。

????如今，全球白手起家的女性億萬富翁有一半來自中國，中國有1/4的企業家是女性。在埃及，約20%的企業家是女性，而且不像其他很多國家的女性所有企業（通常聚集在當地服務行業中），這些公司的業務涉獵廣泛。在埃及，女性所有企業在化工醫藥行業占20%，在食品行業占15%。

????2040年最具影響力女性榜單可能出現更高的更替率，上榜女性很快就會被其他人趕超。這就像是20世紀90年代末以及今天我們所處的美國科技繁榮的國際版。好點子很快就會開花結果，無需太多資本，最主要的擔心是可能被其他更好的點子所取代。在全球層面，全球變平意味著女性具有更多的機會和更激烈的競爭。

????最后是一個大膽的設想是：“最具影響力女性排行榜”的最大變化是到2040年，有可能這份榜單已經不復存在，因為已經沒有必要再繼續發布。如果女性繼續推進她們在全球很多市場取得的成就，商界將變得真正公平，不會再有單獨編制的“最具影響力女性排行榜”，只需編制“最需影響力高管排行榜”即可。男性或女性是否上榜的主要標準是他們的表現，而非性別。這將代表真正的進步。

????戴安妮?埃格瑞是舊金山Booz & Company的高級合伙人。她在公司負責組織和人才效能業務。

????譯者：早稻米

????First, the international MPW list will become far more diverse. As several developing economies continue to post growth rates far in excess of that of the United States, the world's economic center of gravity will shift. The women who make up the list in 2040 will increasingly be from countries like Botswana and Brazil, Egypt and El Salvador, China and Chile.

????In fact, it's possible that at some point, the list won't have two main categories -- U.S. women and international women -- as it does today. Instead, with economic clout disbursed among a handful of strong economies, the list could change to geographically reflect and align to the new centers of power. There could be, say, a list for the most powerful women in Asia, another for Europe, a third for Latin America, and another for the U.S.

????The list will also likely include far more entrepreneurs and self-made women, rather than those running long-established companies. Because the largest developing countries are growing so quickly (including the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China), their economies are more dynamic and vibrant than the developed economies in Europe and North America. Fueled by technology, the changes taking place in these markets make them ripe for disruptive ideas and world-changing businesses. This means that talented women will have the opportunity to rise faster.

????Already, half of the world's self-made female billionaires are in China, and a quarter of that country's entrepreneurs are female. In Egypt, about 20% of all firms are owned by women, and -- unlike the women-owned businesses in many other countries, which tend to cluster in local service sectors -- these span a broad range of industries. In Egypt, women-owned companies account for 20% of firms in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and 15% of firms in the food industry.

????The Most Powerful Women list in 2040 will likely see greater turnover, as women appear on the list and are then surpassed by others. This is akin to a global version of the U.S. technology booms of the late 1990s and the one we're currently in today. Good ideas can flourish relatively quickly, without requiring significant capital, and often their primary risk is in being overtaken by other, better ideas. On the global front, this translates into greater opportunities for women -- as the world flattens -- but also greater competition.

????Finally, here's a radical proposal: The most significant development of the Most Powerful Women list is that by 2040, it may not exist, because it won't need to exist. If women continue the progress they're making already in many markets around the world, and the business world becomes truly equitable, there won't be a separate, stand-alone list of powerful women but rather powerful executives, period. The primary criteria for the men and women on that list will be performance, instead of gender. Now that would represent real progress.

????DeAnne Aguirre is a senior partner with Booz & Company based in San Francisco. She leads the firm's work in organizational and talent effectiveness.