思科轉型曙光初現

????但這些指標無法讓人回想起思科公司在上世紀90年代末期風華正茂時的光輝歲月。它們描繪的是，一個已經步入中年的科技巨人面臨反復無常的全球經濟，終于邁出了成功轉型的第一步。思科這樣的科技巨人要實現華麗轉身絕非易事。IBM做到了這一點，但它的轉型方式是，脫離硬件制造業，進入服務和咨詢領域。而這并非網絡設備制造商思科可選擇的途徑。源自服務（主要是客戶支持）的收入僅占思科公司總收入的五分之一。

????此外，思科公司還沒有完全從近幾年來的幾項代價不菲的失誤中恢復過來。當初，路由器和交換機逐漸成為低成本商品，思科隨后進入了新的市場：視訊會議系統、機頂盒和翻轉攝像機。但事實證明，有些舉措是不明智的。對于惠普公司和其他競爭者向其核心市場發動的攻勢，思科的反應也很遲緩，并沒有嚴陣以待。

????這種情況在今年有所改觀。思科賣掉了機頂盒業務，終止了翻轉攝像機的生產，并開始啟動裁員1萬人的計劃。對其競爭對手，它變得強硬起來——思科公司在一個諷刺性網站上發布了一個視頻，嘲諷瞻博網絡公司的產品延時問題。銷售團隊的薪酬第一次跟其對毛利潤的貢獻掛上鉤?！拔覀儗⒏鼮橹鲃拥貐⑴c競爭，采用更強硬的手段來應對競爭對手，不管這種挑戰是來自瞻博網絡、惠普、華為（Huawei），還是亞美亞公司（Avaya）。我現在覺得我們過去的做法有點太君子了，”錢伯斯在財報電話會議上如是說。

????與此同時，在一些新進入的領域，思科的業績也出現了增長。面向互聯網服務供應商的視頻系統銷售收入增長了13%，源自視頻會議和企業社交網絡等協作式服務的收入增長了12%，數據處理中心的業績更是飆漲了107%。

????2月份，思科公司發布了又一份令市場失望的財季報告。之后，錢伯斯曾對華爾街表示，扭轉公司財務表現的各項措施已準備就緒。許多分析師對此嗤之以鼻，同時股價也出現了下跌。但現在回想起來，錢伯斯的這番表態或許是認真的。上周，三位分析師上調了對思科公司的評級，其他分析師則提高了該公司的預測股價水平。

????然而，市場并未完全打消顧慮。巴克萊銀行（Barclays）和美林證券（Merrill Lynch）的分析師稱，現在就宣布思科公司將確鑿無疑地實現轉型，依然為時尚早。惠普公司和瞻博網絡正忙于解決自身的問題，無瑕應對思科的反擊。一旦它們解決了自身問題，它們就有可能在交換機和路由器市場上發動新一輪的價格戰。

????或許吧，但思科公司依然擁有一項優勢——在這些公司中，它率先整頓了內部事務。思科今年已經完成了幾個高難動作，似乎正在認真地從事維系轉型所必須完成的事情。這可能并非思科公司為自己設想的第二春，但這些舉措或許足以讓投資者睡個安穩覺。

????譯者：任文科

????None of these metrics recall the glory days of Cisco's youth in the late-1990s. But they paint a portrait of a middle-aged tech giant in the early stages of a successful turnaround amid a skittish global economy. Turning around a tech giant like Cisco is no mean feat. IBM pulled it off, but it did so by pushing from hardware into services and consulting. That's not an option for a networking equipment maker like Cisco. Only a fifth of its revenue comes from services, largely customer support.

????Cisco is also recovering from a couple of costly missteps it made in recent years. As routers and switches became low-cost commodities, Cisco moved into new markets: teleconferences, set-top boxes, the Flip camcorder. But some moves proved ill-advised. The company was also slow to take seriously the competition that HP and others were presenting to its core market.

????That changed this year. Cisco sold off set-top box operations, killed the Flip camera and began laying off as many as 10,000 workers. It began getting tough with its competitors, including a snarky web site with videos poking Juniper for its product delays. For the first time, sales teams were paid according to their contributions to gross profit. "We are more aggressive on the competition, we are going to be tough on our competitors, whether they are Juniper or HP and Huawei and Avaya, and it's something that I think, we were a little bit to general on in the past," Chambers said in the earnings conference call.

????Meanwhile, Cisco is seeing growth in newer areas. Revenue grew 13% from video systems for ISPs, 12% from collaboration services like video conferencing and enterprise social networks and 107% from the data center division.

????In February, after Cisco posted yet another disappointing quarter, Chambers told the street that the pieces were in place to turn the company's financial performance around. Many analysts scoffed, and the stock price sank. But in retrospect, Chambers may have been right. Three analysts upgraded their ratings on Cisco last week, and others lifted their price targets.

????Still, some concerns remain. Analysts at Barclays and Merrill Lynch said it was too early to declare Cisco's turnaround a sure thing. HP and Juniper are distracted with their own problems, and once those are sorted out they could wage another price war in switches and routers.

????That may be, but Cisco still has an advantage of being the first of these companies to get its house in order. It's made several difficult moves this year and seems serious about doing what is necessary to keep the turnaround going. That might not be the second act Cisco imagined for itself, but it may just be compelling enough to keep investors in their seats.