中國國內消費抬頭

????由于出口下滑和房市降溫政策對經濟的影響，中國經濟增速降至2009年以來的最低點。但是，這些并沒有拖垮中國的消費者。

????中國國家統計局（China's National Bureau of Statistics）上周公布的數據顯示，與去年同期相比，2012年第一季度經濟增速下降至8.1%，低于此前分析師8.4%的預期，進而引發了國際市場的擔憂：即這個世界上增速最快的大國內部需求正在趨于疲軟。

????但是，也有亮點：政府及家庭消費表現活躍，相比過去十年的平均貢獻率只有41.6%，今年第一季度政府及家庭消費對GDP的貢獻率達到了76%。由于中國長期以來被稱為儲蓄國，這一點著實令人吃驚。

????確實，消費的大幅增長反映了出口和投資的下滑。多年來，在國際市場上銷售的中國產品和服務促進了中國經濟的發展。但是，全球金融危機爆發以來，中國的出口就已經呈現出放緩之勢。歐洲是中國最大的出口市場，而歐洲的債務危機尚未見底，因此出口的前景依然慘淡。至于投資，中國在基礎設施方面的支出幾乎占到經濟的一半。經濟學界和官方都指出，這一比例將難以為繼。

????為了降低貿易順差，中國經常提出目標，要求實現增長的再平衡，促使公民減少儲蓄，擴大消費。這并不是說中國不久就能實現這個目標，但是上周公布的GDP數據顯示，中國或許已經取得了初步進展。即使沒有取得進展，至少也說明中國國內消費堪稱穩健。

????當然，中國消費者的消費能力一部分要歸功于他們苛刻的儲蓄習慣，而中國政府嘗試通過“十二五”規劃（2011－15年）改變這種習慣。麥肯錫咨詢公司（McKinsey & Company'）公布的2011年中國消費者年度調查顯示，中國消費者通常把收入的三分之一用于儲蓄，而在美國，這一數據僅為4.4%。

????但是，即使中國經濟增速放緩，消費者仍然保持著非常樂觀的態度。這是因為，“十二五”規劃要求最低工資每年至少增長13%，地方政府通過提高工資水平，刺激國內消費。今年年初，中國兩大主要城市北京和深圳均提高了最低工資水平。第一季度，城鎮實際工資與去年相比增長了9.8%，而農村地區的工資同比增長了12.7%。過去兩年中，全國工資已經增長了22%。

????但是，在工資上漲的同時，物價也在迅速上漲。因此，如果不是因為通貨膨脹的因素，工資增長產生的額外消費原本應更高。雖然如此，大多數中國人認為工資未來仍會繼續上漲，所以消費依然保持了穩定。麥肯錫咨詢公司的調查顯示，2010年接受調查的消費者中，39%的人預計，工資在未來一年將出現增長，而2011年58%的受訪消費者都認為漲薪在即。

????總部位于上海的中國市場研究集團（China Market Research Group）總經理肖恩?賴因指出，如果將全國各地的數十萬家小型餐廳和商店計算在內，家庭實際消費將遠遠超過統計數字。這是因為，地方政府往往使用預先估值而不是實際的銷售額實施協商征稅，結果造成小型餐廳和商店的銷售額被大幅低估。

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????China's economy is growing at its weakest pace since 2009, as slumping exports and measures to cool the property market weigh on the economy. But that's not dragging down consumers.

????GDP decelerated to 8.1% during the first three months of 2012, compared with a year earlier, according to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics last week. The growth was lower than the 8.4% that analysts expected, fueling concerns in international markets about weakening demand in the world's fastest-growing large economy.

????But there was one bright spot: Spending by households and government proved resilient, contributing to 76% of GDP – up from an average of 41.6% during the past decade. This is particularly surprising, given that China has long been known as a nation of savers.

????True, the rise largely reflects the drop in exports and investments. China's goods and services sold abroad have driven its economy for years, but that has slowed since the global financial crisis. And the outlook remains bleak as the debt crisis in Europe, China's biggest export market, sees little end in sight. As for investments, what China spends on infrastructure and the like accounts for almost half of its economy – a level many economists and officials have said can't continue.

????To narrow its trade surplus, China's oft-stated goal has been to rebalance growth so that its citizens save less and spend more. Not to say that China today is anywhere close to achieving that, but last week's GDP data suggests that perhaps tentative progress has been made. If not that, then it at least speaks to the steadiness of the Chinese consumer.

????Of course, part of the resilience of China's consumers comes from their rigid saving habits, which the Chinese government has been trying to reverse under its five-year plan for 2011-15. On average, they save one-third of their incomes, compared with 4.4% in the U.S., according to McKinsey & Company's 2011 annual Chinese consumer survey.

????But even as the Chinese economy slows, consumers appear quite optimistic. This comes as local governments push wages higher in efforts to boost consumption at home, as part of the five-year plan to raise the minimum wage at least 13% annually. Earlier this year, two of China's leading cities, Beijing and Shenzen, raised minimum wages. During the first quarter, urban real wages rose 9.8% from a year earlier, while wages in rural areas rose 12.7% during the same period. And for the past two years, wages grew 22% nationwide.

????However, higher wages have been met with rapidly rising prices. So the extra spending that the pay bumps would have generated could have been higher if not for inflation. Nevertheless, consumption has stayed steady as most Chinese think wages will rise further in the future. Whereas 39% of consumers in 2010 said they expect their incomes to rise in the next year, 58% surveyed in 2011 said they see higher pay in the horizon, according to McKinsey.

????If we take into account the hundreds of thousands of smaller restaurants and shops that dot across the country, households are spending markedly more than statistics would suggest, says Shaun Rein, managing director of Shanghai-based China Market Research Group. This is because sales at such businesses are often grossly underreported, since local governments often negotiate tax payments on sales upfront using an estimate rather than basing it on actual transactions.