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          中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩被夸大

          中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩被夸大

          Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-10-25
          中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長可能將出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)變,而非下滑。未來數(shù)年,中國欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將提速,而大城市的發(fā)展將降溫,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)整體而言仍然擁有巨大的發(fā)展?jié)摿Α5牵枰扇「嗯e措,才能真正釋放這種潛力。

          ????得克薩斯農(nóng)工大學(xué)(Texas A&M University)教授甘犁(音譯)稱,中國最富有的10%人口掌握著57%的家庭收入。他預(yù)計,未來十年中國所有地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長都將放緩。“由于富有的家庭早已達(dá)到了他們期望的消費水平,而貧困家庭仍舊受到收入有限的制約,在社會收入分配得到顯著改善之前,國內(nèi)消費難以出現(xiàn)高速增長。

          ????這些改變應(yīng)當(dāng)包括給予農(nóng)民工城鎮(zhèn)戶口等措施。農(nóng)民工為建設(shè)、清掃的城市貢獻(xiàn)了自己的力量,但中國僵化的體制卻拒絕讓他們在城市中享受醫(yī)療和教育福利。

          ????沒人否認(rèn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)增長的潛力。問題是,中國廣大的中低收入家庭是否會成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動力?

          ????China's richest 10% control 57 % of household income, says Li Gan, a professor at Texas A&M University. He expects the economy to slow down in all regions over the next decade. "Since rich households have already consumed at their desired levels while poor households are constrained by their income, no one should expect a fast-growing domestic consumption before drastic changes in income distribution occur."

          ????Those changes could include measures such as granting migrant workers urban residency. The country's rigid system denies them access to healthcare and education benefits in the cities many have helped build and clean.

          ????There's no dismissing China's potential for continued growth. The question is will the country's vast low and middle-income households drive it?

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