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          大商機:美國成世界頭號產油國之后

          大商機:美國成世界頭號產油國之后

          Neil Suslak 2012-11-23
          有機構預測美國將在2020年成為世界頭號產油國,全球能源格局將出現重大變化。這種巨變將會帶來大量的投資機會。

          ????這個領域的投資毫無減退之勢。IHS Herold的數據顯示,從2011年1月到2012年4月,上游石油和天然氣公司參與了180億美元的私募股權交易,高于2006-2010年的40億美元。投資額的增長在一定程度上反映了科技進步,為進一步開發這些資源提供了可能。

          ????雖然在開采生產領域已經取得了難以數計的科技進步,但很多這類油氣資源的開發成本依然高昂。它意味著,如果要維持產量增長,技術必須進一步發展。如果商品價格依然受到抑制,這一點就顯得更加重要。今年西得克薩斯中質油(WTI)價格已下跌超過15%。

          ????如果沒有新的技術來降低勘探開采成本,開采這些新資源的經濟可行性就會下降。我們已經在頁巖氣領域看到了這樣的情況:一部分是由于價格持續低迷,生產商已經日益從干氣轉向濕氣。與此同時,低廉的天然氣價格也推動了乙烷加工廠的興建,以供應塑料和其他下游化工市場。

          能效問題越來越受關注

          ????我們在發電和運輸領域對化石燃料的持續依賴無疑將在能效和減排技術領域創造出巨大的商機。能效提升將變得更為重要。因為,如果我們繼續消耗化石燃料,向可再生能源轉換的進程可能就會放緩,特別是在能源發電領域。因為廉價的天然氣進一步拉升了它相對于可再生能源發電的成本差異。

          ????雖然國際能源署強調美國已經減少了石油進口,但該機構的《2012年能源展望》報告同時指出,造成這種情況一部分原因可能是因為美國石油消費量的減少。相比2006年,美國的石油消費量已經下降了8%。石油消費量的下降相當一部分是因為新技術降低了交通運輸行業的車輛耗油量。大多數車輛的耗油量都低于五年前,新技術提高了車輛的每加侖行駛里程,由此也降低了排放。

          ????因此,盡管清潔技術融資(取決于如何定義清潔技術)同比似乎略有下降,但能源技術投資依然強勁。很多具有顛覆性潛能的公司正在尋求風險投資,但相比之下,大部分的資金卻來源于美國、歐洲、中東和亞洲其他地區的大型能源公司。如今隨著行業格局加快變化,風投和大型能源公司興趣更加濃厚,希望合作投資新興公司,尋找解決方案。這種情況甚至對于跨國公司可能也是巨大的機遇。

          ????尼爾·蘇斯拉克是Braemar Energy Ventures的聯合創始人兼執行合伙人,他在以能源為主的風險投資領域擁有超過20年的經驗。Braemar Energy Ventures重點投資能源科技領域尚處于吸引風投和擴張階段的公司,以及與可再生能源和傳統能源領域的杰出公司和管理團隊合作。 更多信息,請登錄www.braemarenergy.com。

          ????譯者:早稻米

          ????Investment in the space is showing no sign of abatement. From January 2011 to April 2012, upstream oil and gas companies participated in $18 billion in private equity deals – that's up from $4 billion from 2006 through 2010, according to?IHS Herold. Part of this increase in value reflects the growth of technology, allowing for further development of such resources.

          ????Although numerous technology advancements have already been made in exploration and production (E&P), many of these hydrocarbon resources remain costly to develop -- meaning that further advancements must be achieved in order to sustain production growth. This is particularly important if commodity prices remain suppressed, with WTI prices down over 15% this year.

          ????Without new technologies to reduce E&P costs, the production of these new resources will become less economically viable. We are already witnessing this phenomenon with shale gas as producers increasingly shift from dry gas to liquids plays in response, in part, to the continued low prices. At the same time, these lower prices have enabled a significant build-out in ethane-based processing plants for the plastics and other downstream chemicals markets.

          Increased focus on energy efficiency

          ????Our continued reliance on fossil fuels for power and transportation will undoubtedly create opportunities in the fields of energy efficiency and emissions mitigation technology. Efficiency advancements will become even more important as we consume fossil fuels and perhaps observe a slower transition to renewables, particularly on the power side as cheaper natural gas raises the price differential versus most forms of renewable power.

          ????Although the IEA highlights the fact that the U.S. has decreased its petroleum imports, part of this drop can be attributed to a decline in U.S. consumption, which is down 8% since 2006, according to the?IEA's?Energy Outlook 2012.?In particular, a significant portion of the drop in consumption has been enabled by new technologies reducing vehicle fuel consumption in the transportation sector. Most vehicles burn less fuel than they did five years ago as new technologies allow cars to achieve more mileage per gallon and, as a result, cut their emissions as well.

          ????So while cleantech funding (depending on how you define it) looks to be down slightly year-on-year, investment in energy technology remains robust. Although many potentially disruptive companies are sourcing venture capital, the lion's share of investment is being carried out by large energy companies from the U.S., Europe, the Middle East and other parts of Asia. Today, there is much greater interest among VCs and large energy companies to act collaboratively in investing together in emerging companies as the industry landscape shifts ever more quickly and to identify solutions to what are enormous opportunities even for a multi-national.

          ????Neil Suslak, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Braemar Energy Ventures, has more than 20 years of experience in the venture capital and investment banking industries, largely in the energy space. Braemar Energy Ventures focuses on investing primarily in venture- and expansion-stage companies in the energy technology sector and partners with exceptional companies and management teams, in both alternative and traditional energy markets. Additional information is available at?www.braemarenergy.com.

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