美國建筑業怪現象

????經濟與市場預測機構IHS環球透視（IHS Global Insight）的經濟學家奈杰爾·高爾特表示，政府可能少算了從事相對較新工作的建筑隊數量。每月就業報告以兩份調查為基礎，一份為家庭調查，用于確定失業率；另外一份則為公司調查，用于計算增加和減少的工作崗位總量。

????建筑商通常會雇傭分包商負責粉刷、水管設施等工作，而由于這些工作的雇主通常是規模更小、更年輕的公司，因此統計中并未將這些工作計算在內。我們可能要等到幾個月之后才能弄明白美國勞工部的統計數據，確定建筑行業的具體就業率。另外一種情況可能是房地產蕭條帶來的剩余效應——建筑工人短缺。要知道，經濟衰退期間，數百萬人離開了建筑行業。

????即便如此，也不可能造成這么大的差別。總體就業中，建筑業僅占一小部分。私營行業超過1.11億份工作中，建筑類僅占約550,000個。

????誠然，健康的房地產市場應該能刺激美國總體經濟，畢竟美國人的財富與其住房有著直接聯系。這也向從零售到生產各個領域的美國公司發出信號，美國消費者消費的可能性在增加。而反過來，公司管理者也會增加投資和招聘。

????這一次，經濟周期可能會出現不同的結果。由于“大衰退”的影響太過深遠，有人曾經表示，房地產市場會對總體經濟產生更有意義的推動作用，“房地產業必將會是一針興奮劑。”

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????The government may be undercounting construction crews who've taken on relatively new jobs, says Nigel Gault, economist at IHS Global Insight. The monthly jobs report is based on two surveys -- one polling households, which determines the unemployment rate; the other businesses, which calculates the overall number of jobs added and lost.

????Because builders typically hire subcontractors to do everything from painting to plumbing, many of those jobs may not be accounted for since they work for smaller and newer firms. It may take several months before we know exactly how many jobs in construction have been created as the Labor Department catches on. It could also be a?shortage of construction workers?-- the residual effect of the housing bust when millions left construction amid the economic downturn.

????Even then, that might not make that much of a difference. Construction jobs make up only a small part of the employment picture. Of the more than 111 million jobs in the private sector, construction reflects roughly 550,000.

????To be sure, a healthy housing market is supposed to stimulate the overall economy because Americans' wealth is closely linked to their homes. It signals to corporate America -- from retailers to manufacturers -- that consumers are more likely to spend. In turn, executives invest and hire more. And so on.

????This time, the business cycle may pan out differently. Since the Great Recession was so deep, some have said "housing would have to be on steroids" to give the economy a meaningful boost.