2012年最離譜的11項預測

標普500指數持平于1,250點

????《巴倫周刊》（Barron's）每年都會請一些專家猜猜下一年結束時標普500指數（S&P 500）將達到什么水平。這是一個騙人的游戲，但有些時候他們碰巧也會預測得非常接近。2012年就是這樣的一年。這些專家平均預測標普指數將達到1,360點，較2011年12月中旬上漲12%。瞧，標普指數本周已站穩(wěn)1,450點，年度漲幅達到更高的16%。

????每位分析師看起來都很聰明，除了唯一的一位看空者。高盛（Goldman Sachs）美國首席股票策略師大衛(wèi)?克斯汀曾預計2012年股市將持平，標普指數收于1,250點。今年不適合像克斯汀這樣的看空者。不用害怕，他正在用看多的2013年預期進行彌補：他預測，標普指數達到1,575點。

S&P 500 at 1,250

????Barron's convenes a panel of stock experts every year to guess where the S&P 500 will wind up next year. It's a fool's game, but sometimes they happen upon a close number. 2012 was such a year. The experts on average predicted the S&P will reach 1,360, a tidy 12% gain from the date in mid-December 2011. Lo and behold, the S&P is holding steady this week at 1,450, which amounts to an even bigger 16% gain.

????Every expert looked smart except the lone bear. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said stocks would flatline in 2012 and the S&P would finish at 1,250. The year was not for bears like Kostin. Fear not, he's making up for it with a bullish prediction for 2013: S&P 500 at 1,575.