西方世界錯失中東三大良機

????首先，關于戰爭的報道讓西方人看不到中東地區同樣顯著的經濟發展趨勢。十多年來，土耳其、埃及和沙特等國的宏觀潛力一直都能躋身增長型市場前十之列，而且幾乎每項統計都會得出這樣的結論。納克維說：“即使是今天，這些國家今后五年的年增長率預計仍能達到5%。所以，接下來的問題只應該是這一點對各個行業的投資需求意味著什么。”

????他說，設想一下，光是建筑、零售和醫療行業就會有怎樣的機會。“未來三年，沙特的新建住宅需求超過一百萬套；在較大的地區性經濟體，信用卡和借記卡普及率正從很低的起點開始呈幾何級數增長；海灣國家的醫院床位將在今后15年翻番。不身處其中，人們就無法理解這一切。這就是為什么我們在所經營的市場中一直保持著非常高的本地化程度。”

????其次，全球經濟力量顯然正在經歷一次由西到東的大轉移，從某種程度上說政治力量也是如此，而中東目前的情況正是這次大轉移的一部分。一個很好的例證就是，Abraaj Group通過50多家公司向非洲投入了15億美元資金。納克維指出，全球增長最快的十個國家有七個在非洲。管理咨詢公司麥肯錫（McKinsey）預計，到2060年，非洲將有6億（）中產階層消費者。這對中東有什么影響呢？納克維微笑著回答：“中東把中國、印度和非洲連在一起。正是出于這個原因，中東才會有世界上盈利水平最高的航空公司之一——阿聯酋航空（Emirates Airlines）和全球最大的港口之一——杰貝?阿里（Jebel Ali）港。隨著亞洲和非洲的增長，我認為中東在全球經濟中的作用只會越來越大。”

????第三，人口結構變化和新生代的渴望正在為中東的創業活動翻開全新篇章。納克維說：“15%的中東人都在25歲以下，其中許多人目前都處于貧困狀態。這是個非常大的挑戰，但同時幾乎所有人都希望提高自己的社會地位。”

????納克維相信，借助技術和對事業的開拓，這些新生代正通過一種新的方式來表明他們正在把握自己的機遇，納克維和他的團隊每周都能看到這樣的場面。

????納克維認為，曲解現狀還會讓人錯失中東等增長型市場所特有的互補性發展趨勢。

????隨著東西方經濟實力對比發生變化，城市變得越發重要。納克維感嘆道：“增長型市場每年的城市擴張規模都相當于八個紐約市，其中25個城市的人口數量就能超過整個美國。”它代表著14億潛在中產階層——14億較容易吸引的新生消費者。

????消費者有需求的時候，企業就會挺身而出。對納克維來說，“企業社會責任”不僅僅是一個公關口號。在他看來，對任何企業來說，責任都和盈利同樣重要。今天，所有的利益相關者都會要求企業具有包容性并能以創新方式來解決問題，今后將更是如此。這些利益相關者不僅包括消費者、投資者和企業員工等傳統成員，還包括他們居住或接觸到的社區。

????The first is that the narratives of war blind the West to equally clear economic trends in the region. For over a decade, in macro terms, countries like Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been consistently ranked in the top ten growth markets in terms of potential across almost every survey. "Even today," Naqvi notes, "These countries are expected to grow at 5% per annum over the next five years. So the next question should only be what this means in terms of the investment requirements in specific various sectors."

????Consider the opportunities for the construction, retail and health care industries alone, Naqvi says. "There is demand for more than a million houses to be built in Saudi Arabia over the next three years; credit and debit card penetration is rising exponentially from a small base in the larger regional economies; hospital beds will double in the Gulf countries over the next fifteen years. One cannot understand this from afar. That's why we remain very local in the markets in which we operate."

????Second, what is happening in the Middle East is part of a significant and clear shift in global economic and, to some extent political, power from West to East. Africa, where Abraaj has deployed $1.5 billion across over fifty companies, is a case in point. Seven out of ten of the world's fastest-growing countries are in Africa, Naqvi notes, and McKinsey estimates that by 2060 there will be 600 million middle class consumers on the continent. How will this affect the Middle East? "The Middle East is what connects China and India to Africa," he smiles. "It is for this reason that the region is home to one of the most profitable airlines, Emirates Airlines, and one of the largest ports in the world, Jebel Ali. As Asia and Africa continue to grow I only see a greater role for the Middle East in the global economy."

????Third, the demographic shifts and desires of the new generation are unleashing an entirely new era of entrepreneurship in the Middle East. "Fifty percent of the population here is below 25 and many are currently underprivileged," he says. "This is very challenging, but at the same time virtually all have aspirations for social mobility."

????Naqvi believes that what the new generation is doing with technology, and in the start-up businesses he and his team see every week, is a new expression of their taking control of their own opportunities.

????For Naqvi, misunderstanding these current realities also leads to missing additional and complementary trends tailor-made for growth markets like the Middle East.

????As economic strength shifts west to east, it is progressively more urban. "Every year cities are expanding in growth markets to the tune of eight New York cities," he marvels. "Twenty five cities in these markets represent more than the entire population of the U.S. This represents a potential middle class of 1.4 billion people – 1.4 billion new, relatively easy-to-reach consumers."

????And business themselves will step up as consumers demand it. For Naqvi, "corporate social responsibility" is not merely a term of public relations but it's a component of any company as important as making profit. All stakeholders today and increasingly in the future -- traditional ones like customers, investors and employees, but also the communities where they live or touch virtually -- will simply demand a sense of inclusiveness and, again, innovative problem solving.