蘋果失約三月新品發(fā)布季

????蘋果（Apple）遇到大麻煩了，如果說(shuō)低迷不振的股價(jià)、接連放緩的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)，以及中國(guó)市場(chǎng)飽受詬病的售后服務(wù)還只是前奏的話，那么無(wú)法推陳出新可能會(huì)成為它致命的考驗(yàn)。自去年10月iPad Mini上市后，蘋果至今尚未發(fā)布任何新品。過(guò)去四年，有三年蘋果都在3月舉辦過(guò)盛大的新品發(fā)布會(huì)，但今年該公司沒(méi)有這樣做。而除3月份之外，蘋果通常還會(huì)在每年6月份的年度開(kāi)發(fā)者大會(huì)上發(fā)布多款新品。假如今年蘋果真要一直等到6月份才發(fā)布新品的話，將出現(xiàn)一個(gè)長(zhǎng)達(dá)8個(gè)月的主打產(chǎn)品發(fā)布真空期。要知道，13年來(lái)，蘋果公司從來(lái)沒(méi)有讓用戶等過(guò)這么久。

????最近幾年，蘋果新產(chǎn)品的推出頻率非常有規(guī)律。9月份，一場(chǎng)極具特色的發(fā)布會(huì)會(huì)帶來(lái)iPod和iTunes等音樂(lè)產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)的升級(jí)；等到10月，登臺(tái)亮相的是蘋果標(biāo)志性的Macintosh計(jì)算機(jī)產(chǎn)品；而踏入三月份，迎接我們的是一場(chǎng)混搭發(fā)布會(huì)：從2009年驚艷亮相的iPod Shuffle到2011年經(jīng)過(guò)重大改進(jìn)的iPad 2，再到2012年的全新iPad。（2010年是蘋果最后一次未在3月召開(kāi)發(fā)布會(huì)，不過(guò)它在1月推出了第一代iPad，隨后又在6月推出了全新設(shè)計(jì)的iPhone 4。）蘋果過(guò)去曾多次在IDG World Expo舉辦的Mac世界（Macworld）展銷會(huì)上發(fā)布重磅產(chǎn)品。但2009年以后，蘋果停止了在這個(gè)活動(dòng)上進(jìn)行的主題發(fā)言，此舉使得3月的新品發(fā)布會(huì)變得更加重要。

????三月春已到，但庫(kù)比蒂諾仍然毫無(wú)風(fēng)聲，不少蘋果觀察家們對(duì)此議論紛紛?！疤婀至恕Ｎ覀?cè)?jīng)認(rèn)為，按照慣例，他們應(yīng)該在三月做點(diǎn)什么?！蓖顿Y銀行Piper Jaffray的分析師吉恩?蒙斯特表示。“我們沒(méi)指望蘋果發(fā)布多款新品，但居然連一款都沒(méi)有，真是失望透頂?！狈治鰩熢A(yù)測(cè)蘋果將發(fā)布視網(wǎng)膜版的iPad Mini，還將推出一項(xiàng)名為iRadio音樂(lè)訂閱服務(wù)。雖然新服務(wù)還未發(fā)布，但鋪天蓋地的謠言已讓互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣播提供商Pandora的股價(jià)倍受打擊。

????從去年10月發(fā)布iPad mini，到今年6月的全球開(kāi)發(fā)者大會(huì)，中間有整整八個(gè)月，這意味著蘋果必須在今年夏天大放異彩。除了升級(jí)版iPad mini和音樂(lè)訂閱服務(wù)，明斯特預(yù)測(cè)，蘋果在6月還將推出iPhone 5S和針對(duì)蘋果電視的應(yīng)用程序商店。而應(yīng)用程序商店意義重大，它意味著蘋果電視（這是真正的電視，不是之前推出號(hào)稱是蘋果電視的機(jī)頂盒）有望在今年12月發(fā)布。明斯特稱：“他們屆時(shí)很可能要發(fā)布以上四款（新品）中的三款，才能使今年6月的發(fā)布會(huì)成為一場(chǎng)真正的盛會(huì)?！?/p>

????蘋果沒(méi)有回應(yīng)發(fā)表評(píng)論的請(qǐng)求。

????當(dāng)然，這對(duì)蘋果而言可能未嘗不是件好事，或許漫長(zhǎng)的等待意味著接下來(lái)會(huì)有大動(dòng)作。蒙斯特預(yù)測(cè)，由于產(chǎn)品升級(jí)換代步伐加快，蘋果的新品發(fā)布數(shù)量將有所上升。分析師們同時(shí)還預(yù)測(cè)蘋果將在明年推出蘋果手表（或許名為iWatch？）和廉價(jià)版的iPhone。

????話雖如此，蘋果一直將這些重大活動(dòng)視為公司長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃的關(guān)鍵步驟。眼下蘋果很可能將長(zhǎng)達(dá)8個(gè)月沒(méi)有新品推出，不禁令人生疑：蘋果到底在打什么主意？（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????As if a plunging stock price, slowing earnings growth, and customer-service woes in China weren't enough, Apple hasn't released a new product since October, when it released the iPad Mini. In three of the past four years, Apple has held a signature new-product event in March, but not this year. Were the company to wait until June, when it typically unveils new gadgets at its annual conference for developers, it would mark an eight-month gap in major releases, the longest wait Apple has inflicted on its customers in 13 years.

????Apple's (AAPL) product launch cycle in recent years has followed a metronome-like precision. September featured events to promote music products and services including the iPod and iTunes. October has been reserved for upgrades to the bedrock Macintosh computer line. The March event has seen a grab-bag of product releases, from a new iPod Shuffle in 2009 to the significantly improved iPad 2 in 2011 and a "new" iPad in 2012. (In 2010, the last year Apple didn't hold an event in March, it unveiled the first iPad in January and a redesigned iPhone 4 in June.) For years Apple announced major products at the Macworld trade show. But it stopped keynoting the independently produced event after 2009, making its March announcements all the more important.

????This year, March came and went without a peep from Cupertino, causing concern among avid Apple watchers. "It was a surprise. We had expected them to do something in March like they typically do," says analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray. "We weren't expecting a ton of fireworks, but the fact that it wasn't there was incrementally disappointing." Analysts had speculated that Apple would release an updated iPad mini with a retina display and a music subscription service. The rumored iRadio service has been enough to crater the stock of Internet radio provider Pandora (P), yet Apple hasn't released it.

????The long stretch between October's iPad mini announcement and June's Worldwide Developers Conference puts pressure on Apple to hit a homerun this summer. In addition to the iPad mini update and a music subscription service, analyst Munster expects an iPhone 5S in June, as well as a new app store for Apple TV. The App store would be significant because it would most likely signal that an Apple television -- an actual television as opposed to the set-top box known as Apple TV -- could be on track for a December release, he says. "They've probably got to do three out of four of those (new products) for it to be considered a real respectable June event," says Munster.

????Apple did not respond to requests for comment.

????The cup could be half full for Apple of course, with the long pause presaging a burst of activity. Munster expects the number of Apple announcements to increase as the pace of product upgrade cycles become shorter. Analysts are also anticipating an Apple watch (iWatch?) and a much cheaper version of the iPhone to come out in the next year.

????Even so, Apple has traditionally viewed these major events as important stepping-stones in the company's long-term plan. An eight-month silence begs the question: What has Apple been up to?