2045年的世界什么樣

云端大腦

????如果想一想，云端大腦在這個互聯的世界中將扮演什么樣的角色，這個話題就會變得更有意思了。庫茲韋爾說，大腦移植將成為司空見慣的事，但這不僅僅增強了大腦的能力，也開啟了云端的能力。

????和在智能手機上點擊屏幕以追蹤網上信息或從郵件中檢索電話號碼一樣，未來幾十年內，我們的大腦將能讀取云端收集的信息，以指數級程度進行延伸。新皮層中神經細胞組和神經網絡的數量是有限的，庫茲韋爾說，所以人類大腦能存儲和檢索的容量確實有限。但如果能直接連到云端，在理論上我們的大腦就能獲得無限的信息和處理能力。

????庫茲韋爾說，換言之，科技將在本質上對新皮層做無限的延伸。“還記得我們最近一次延伸新皮層時出現了什么情況嗎？”

2045年：永生成為現實

????或者說，科技將至少在可預見的未來極大地延長人的壽命。

????過去的200年里，我們成功地將發達國家的人均壽命延長了一倍，而且由于醫療技術和改善生活質量的技術不斷改進，我們將繼續以更快地速度延長壽命。庫茲韋爾說，到某個時刻（這個時刻很快將到來），我們將跨過一個臨界值。屆時，每過一年，我們的人均壽命將延長一歲。

????“從現在開始的10到20年里，這方面的技術將高速發展，可能在不到15年的時間里，我們就能抵達這個臨界點。到時候，借助科學進步，我們能增加的壽命將比已度過的歲月更長久，”庫茲韋爾說。“今后10到20年間的某個時刻，健康和醫療將會出現驚人的轉化。”

????當然，延長平均壽命對并不不能阻止死亡。（實際上，考慮到資源不足，它反而會導致痛苦和死亡的增加。）但庫茲韋爾討論的永生是數字化的永生，即讓大腦存活在機器替身里或上傳到硅片中——指的是在過去十年中出現的神經系統科學和腦機接口領域相對巨大的突破。能對大腦信號做出反應的假肢在10年前還只是科幻小說里的內容，但在全球未來2045大會上，觀眾看到了一個實際可用的腦控假體在運動。同樣地，在2013年聽起來荒謬的事可能在2023年會顯得更合理，甚至在2033年就成為司空見慣的事。

????伊茨科夫相信，到那個時候，永生行業將一派欣欣向榮，它將確保一個人生理壽命的結束不一定一定意味著意識生命的終結。他說，永生會變得很普遍，而不是只有富人才能買得起的特權。伊茨科夫用手機舉例解釋說，技術在10年內技術便宜了1000倍。雖然在手機時代的黎明期，只有富裕的人才能擁有手機，那時的技術很麻煩，功能有限，而且不是很好用，但現在的手機已經普及到人手一只了。

????伊茨科夫揶揄說，“只有富人才會花錢消費不成熟的技術。”當壽命延長和“永生”技術足夠成熟，能成為主流時，成本將會下降到大眾有能力支付的范圍。

Your brain on the cloud

????All of this gets far more interesting when one considers what it means in the context of the connected world. Brain implants are going to become commonplace, but they won't just enhance the power of the brain -- they'll unlock the power of the cloud, Kurzweil says.

????In the same way we tap our smartphones to track down information across the web or retrieve a phone number from an email, within a couple of decades our brains will be able to access the collected information in the cloud, extending its reach by an exponential degree. The number of neuron clusters and neural networks in the neocortex is finite, Kurzweil says -- there's quite literally a limit to what we can store and retrieve in the human brain. But with a direct line to the cloud, our brains could theoretically access infinite information and infinite processing power.

????In other words, technology will essentially extend the neocortex indefinitely, Kurzweil said. "Remember what happened the last time we expanded our neocortex?"

2045: Immortality is real

????Or, at the very least, technology will vastly increase the human lifespan in the foreseeable future.

????In the last 200 years we've essentially doubled the average life expectancy for people in developed countries, and we continue to extend it at faster and faster rates thanks to better medical technologies as well as technologies that make human life better. At some point -- and that point is coming soon, Kurzweil said -- we will cross a threshold where every year that goes by we will add a year to the average lifespan.

????"This will go into high gear within 10 or 20 years from now, in probably less than 15 we will be reaching that tipping point where we add more time than has gone by because of scientific progress," Kurzweil said. "Somewhere between 10 and 20 years, there is going to be tremendous transformation of health and medicine."

????Of course, extending the average lifespan isn't a hedge against all death. (In fact, where resource scarcity is concerned, it's a recipe for increased misery and death.) But where the kind of immortality Itskov is talking about -- the digital kind, where the brain is either kept alive in a robotic surrogate or uploaded to silicon -- he points to the relatively huge breakthroughs in the realms of neuroscience and brain machine interfaces that have emerged over the last decade. Prosthetic limbs that respond to brain signals remained the stuff of science fiction a decade ago, yet at Global Futures 2045 the audience saw a working mind-controlled prosthesis in action. Likewise, what sounds absolutely absurd in 2013 might seem a lot more reasonable by 2023 and even commonplace by 2033.

????Itskov believes a thriving immortality industry could be well underway by then, ensuring that the end of one's biological life doesn't necessarily spell the end of one's conscious life. And it will become ubiquitous; immortality won't be a privilege only the wealthy can afford, he says. Kurzweil points to the cell phone. In 10 years technologies tend to become 1,000 times less expensive, he said. Everyone has a cell phone now, and while it's true that at the dawn of the cell phone era only the well-heeled owned them, the technology at that point was cumbersome, limited in function, and didn't work very well.

????"Only the rich have these technologies when they don't work," Kurzweil quipped. By the time life extension and "immortality" technologies are mature enough to be mainstream, the cost will have come down enough to place it within the reach of millions.