歷史的啟示：底特律重生的三條出路

????怎樣才能讓汽車之城底特律復蘇？上個月底特律申請破產以來，許多人一直都在思考這座城市能否轉危為安，以及怎樣才能做到這一點。重新崛起從來都不是一件輕而易舉的事，而不論是破產還是違約都能摧毀一座城市的經濟以及它的信用評級。

????市政破產較為罕見。美國以前也有幾座城市曾瀕臨破產，但60年來申請過破產的城市和縣只有61個。它們的情況都和底特律不同，但有些城市和縣也曾面臨類似的困難，底特律當然有可能從它們那里了解到如何按照類似的途徑重現往日的光輝。

????底特律可以從下面三個死而復生的案例中汲取一些經驗：

匹茲堡：發展

????匹茲堡沒有破過產，但它的衰退過程和底特律很像：兩座城市都在20世紀下半葉出現過急劇的人口流失。它們都見證了本市主要產業的消亡——匹茲堡的主要產業是鋼鐵，這個行業衰敗于上世紀80年代；而曾經興盛的汽車產業給底特律帶來的損失至今也沒有得到彌補。

????湯姆?墨菲在1994年到2006年期間曾擔任匹茲堡市市長，在他治下，匹茲堡的建筑業實現了復蘇。墨菲說：“（底特律必須）想清楚自己要發展成什么模樣。”

????底特律可以效仿匹茲堡對自身進行再造。鋼鐵業崩潰后，匹茲堡就業市場出現了不匹配現象，它的那些制造業工人不具備從事其他工作的資質。但幾年之后，隨著醫療保健和教育業的發展，匹茲堡的經濟重心轉向了服務領域。最終，匹茲堡人也適應了新行業中的工作。

????1998年，《匹茲堡郵報》（Pittsburgh Post-Gazette）發表社論，宣布“匹茲堡正在重建”。匹茲堡在墨菲任內實現了稅收增長，和大公司建立了合作關系，興建了兩座體育場和一座新的會議中心。《匹茲堡郵報》指出，新開工的寫字樓和購物中心是匹茲堡出現第三次復興的原因之一，它們重新把商業活動帶回了中心市區。

????在底特律，政府官員已經表示，他們樂觀地認為底特律的核心地帶能夠重現繁榮景象。

????申請破產前，緊急狀態管理人凱文?奧爾提出了多項計劃，打算向底特律每況愈下的基礎設施投資12.5億美元（77.13億元人民幣），以期刺激經濟增長。他多次提到，個人按揭貸款機構Quicken Loans等新興企業搬到市中心表明底特律已經走上了復蘇之路。

橘子縣：增加收入，提升房地產價值

????1994年，加利福尼亞州橘子縣破產，但富裕的民眾減輕了破產對當地整體經濟的打擊。雖然破產規模達到令人瞠目的15億美元（92.55億元人民幣）而且市政方面裁員41%，但隨后幾年橘子縣經濟總體上仍處于穩定增長狀態。從1994年到1999年，當地人均總收入提高了42.8%，高于34.7%的全國平均水平。給當地帶來繁榮的是多元化的經濟——橘子縣的主要行業囊括了高科技、零售和旅游（畢竟這里是迪士尼樂園的發源地）。

????考慮到高達16%的失業率（是全國平均失業率的兩倍多）以及勉強超過2.5萬美元（15.43萬元人民幣）的平均家庭收入，很難想象底特律怎樣才能復制橘子縣的復蘇之路。但底特律制定了促進市中心商業發展的政策，比如基礎設施建設，這將給底特律帶來薪酬較高的工作機會。

????How do you get the Motor City revving again? Since Detroit filed for bankruptcylast month, many have wondered if and how it could make a comeback. Recovery is never easy; bankruptcy or default can wreck a city's economy and kill its credit rating.

????Municipal bankruptcies are rare. Several cities have come close, and only 61 cities and counties have filed in the last six decades. They all have a different story from Detroit's, but some faced similar hurdles and could certainly teach the Michigan city a thing or two about how to follow a similar path to recovery.

????Here are three lessons for Detroit from cities that fell before it and survived:

Pittsburgh: Grow up

????While Pittsburgh never went bankrupt, its decline played out similarly to Detroit's: Both saw acute population loss during the second half of the 20th century. Both also witnessed the demise of their city's major industries -- for Pittsburgh, it was steel in the 1980s; Detroit has never recovered from losing its once thriving auto industry.

????"[Detroit must] figure out what it's going to be when it grows up," says Tom Murphy, who was mayor of Pittsburgh from 1994 to 2006 and oversaw a resurgence in construction.

????Like Pittsburgh, Detroit could reinvent itself. After the collapse of the steel industry, Pittsburgh suffered an employment mismatch, where workers who specialized in manufacturing weren't qualified for other jobs. Over the years, however, the city shifted into a services economy with growth in the health care and education industries. Eventually, Pittsburghers adapted to jobs in the new sectors.

????"Pittsburgh is rebuilding again," declared a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial in 1998. Murphy oversaw an infusion of tax dollars, in partnership with major businesses, to construct two stadiums and a new convention center. The paper cited new construction of offices and shopping centers as a reason for the city's "Renaissance III" that brought commerce back to the downtown.

????In Detroit, officials have expressed optimism that the city's downtown could see revitalization.

????Prior to the bankruptcy filing, Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr announced plans to invest $1.25 billion in Detroit's failing infrastructure with the hopes of spurring economic growth. He often cites the movement of young businesses, such as Quicken Loans, to the city's downtown as evidence that Detroit has a renaissance of its own underway.

Orange County: Boost incomes and raise property values

????In 1994, Orange County, Calif., went bankrupt, but the wealth of its citizens cushioned the blow to its overall economy. Despite a staggering $1.5 billion bankruptcy and a 41% cut in municipal services, the county's overall economy grew steadily through the late 1990's. Total personal income rose by 42.8% between 1994 and 1999, compared with 34.7% nationwide. A diverse economy -- with major sectors ranging from high-tech to retail to tourism (it's the home to Disneyland, after all) -- propelled the boom.

????It's hard to imagine how Detroit could replicate this, given an unemployment rate that stands uncomfortably high at 16% (more than twice the national average) and a median household income that barely clears $25,000. But policies designed to accommodate the growth of business in the downtown, such as infrastructure development, would bring higher-wage jobs to the city.