惠普重振雄風(fēng)差什么？

????積極的并購(gòu)交易可以讓一家公司進(jìn)入新的市場(chǎng)，進(jìn)一步壯大它的實(shí)力。當(dāng)然，它也可能讓這家公司焦頭爛額地應(yīng)對(duì)復(fù)雜的IT整合，一輪又一輪的裁員，以及數(shù)十億美元的資產(chǎn)減記，結(jié)果反而消耗了實(shí)力。不幸的是，惠普的命運(yùn)正是第二種情況。到2012年11月，惠普股價(jià)已跌至11.35美元，在25個(gè)月內(nèi)累計(jì)下跌了79%。同期，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)卻上漲了18%。

????惠特曼正是在惠普股價(jià)自由落體之際閃亮登場(chǎng)，在2011年成為惠普CEO。但她已經(jīng)注定要面對(duì)更多的裁員和減記，特別是在富有爭(zhēng)議的Autonomy公司收購(gòu)交易之后。但是惠普股價(jià)從去年11月開(kāi)始反彈，表明她帶領(lǐng)惠普走出風(fēng)暴中心、進(jìn)入平靜水域的努力發(fā)生了作用。

????上個(gè)月，惠普股價(jià)攀升至27.78美元，較去年秋季低點(diǎn)回升了145%。接下來(lái)，這家公司公布了最新的業(yè)績(jī)報(bào)告。惠普公布收益報(bào)告后，它的股價(jià)在幾小時(shí)內(nèi)下跌13%，回落到每股22美元。主要是因?yàn)樽钚聵I(yè)績(jī)報(bào)告使得市場(chǎng)質(zhì)疑這家公司是否真的能夠華麗轉(zhuǎn)身，盡管惠特曼已經(jīng)做出許多努力。此后三周內(nèi)，惠普股價(jià)一直保持在每股22美元左右。

????股價(jià)下跌與惠普上一季度的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)沒(méi)什么關(guān)系：收入及盈利均符合華爾街分析師業(yè)已悲觀(guān)的預(yù)期。個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)收入下滑了11%，打印機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)收入（惠普長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的搖錢(qián)樹(shù)）下滑了4%，企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)收入下降了9%，金融服務(wù)收入降了6%。唯一的亮點(diǎn)是惠普的軟件業(yè)務(wù)，它的收入增長(zhǎng)1%來(lái)到了9.82億美元，占惠普總收入的3.6%。

????但這一切均在預(yù)期之內(nèi)。傳統(tǒng)個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)的下滑以及企業(yè)在IT服務(wù)上的支出停滯拖累了惠普等高科技巨頭。但真正導(dǎo)致股價(jià)大跌的原因是惠普對(duì)未來(lái)的預(yù)期——無(wú)關(guān)復(fù)蘇的東西。惠特曼在電話(huà)會(huì)議上說(shuō)了這樣一番話(huà)：

????“上個(gè)季度服務(wù)器市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)率出現(xiàn)下降。個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)企穩(wěn)的程度不及我的預(yù)期。我預(yù)期的企穩(wěn)還需要繼續(xù)等待。最后，企業(yè)服務(wù)今年表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)，今年這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)收入流失進(jìn)一步放緩……”

????這些讓分析師們驚慌失措。花旗集團(tuán)（Citigroup）擔(dān)心，惠普的“電話(huà)會(huì)議揭示了該公司面臨的一些挑戰(zhàn)”。Needham & Co.公司指出，此前就表示過(guò)對(duì)惠普能否扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢(shì)的懷疑，“圍繞惠普的超級(jí)樂(lè)觀(guān)情緒終于開(kāi)始消退了。”還有分析師因?yàn)榛萜?014年收入無(wú)增長(zhǎng)的前景感到大驚失措，而企業(yè)部門(mén)管理層變動(dòng)則讓另一些分析師大跌眼鏡。惠普一直希望企業(yè)部門(mén)成為一個(gè)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)。

????過(guò)去一個(gè)月內(nèi)發(fā)生的事已經(jīng)描繪出一種場(chǎng)景：惠普不僅僅是在艱難時(shí)期墜落的硅谷先驅(qū)，而且即使未來(lái)幾年也可能沒(méi)希望重振雄風(fēng)了。鑒于它的員工總數(shù)超過(guò)33萬(wàn)人，這樣的情景發(fā)人深省。惠普被剔除道瓊斯指數(shù)后還將生存下去。但如果作為硅谷標(biāo)志性企業(yè)的身份也被剝奪，它的境遇也許會(huì)進(jìn)一步惡化。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????

????Aggressive M&A can strengthen a company by broadening its reach into new markets. Or it can deplete its strength by distracting the company with complex IT integration, endless rounds of layoffs, and billions of dollars in write-downs. HP's fate ended up being the latter. By November 2012, its stock had fallen to $11.35 a share, a decline of 79% over 25 months. During that same period, the S&P 500 rose 18%.

????Whitman came in during the middle of that freefall, becoming HP's CEO in 2011. She had her work cut out for her: more layoffs and writedowns, particularly in the wake of the controversial Autonomy deal. But starting last November, the stock rallied, suggesting that her efforts to steer HP out of the storm and into calmer waters was actually working.

????HP's stock reached as high as $27.78 last month, an increase of 145% from its low point last fall. Then came its most recent financial report. The stock dropped 13% to $22 a share in a matter of hours after HP posted its earnings, largely because the numbers raised questions about whether this company could ever be turned around, even with the work that Whitman has done. The stock has stayed around $22 a share in the three weeks since then.

????The reason has nothing to do with HP's last quarter: Revenue and earnings came in line with Wall Street's expectations, which were grim ones. PC revenue fell 11%, printer revenue (long HP's cash cow) fell 4%, enterprise business fell 9%, and financial services fell 6%. The only bright spot was HP's software, which saw revenue rise 1% to $982 million, or 3.6% of HP's total revenue.

????All that was expected. The fall of the old-school PC and the stagnant spending by companies on IT services have hurt HP and other tech giants. The killer was what HP saw ahead, which was not the stuff of recovery. In the conference call, Whitman said things like this:

????"The server market growth rates have come down in the last quarter. The PC market has not stabilized as much as I had anticipated it would. That stabilization is yet to occur. Then finally, Enterprise Services, which is good for this year is the revenues running off more slowly this year ..."

????Analysts kind of freaked. Citigroup fretted that its "conference call unveiled several challenges." Needham & Co., noting its earlier skepticism in a turnaround, said "euphoria is finally wearing off." Others were taken aback about the prospect of no revenue growth in 2014 and still others by the management changes in the enterprise division, an area that HP long hoped would be a growth area.

????The past month has painted a picture where HP is not only a Silicon Valley pioneer that has fallen on hard times, but one where a turnaround may in fact be impossible even in the next few years. Given it employs well over 330,000 people, that's a sobering scenario. HP will survive being jettisoned from the Dow. It may fare less well if it also slips from being an icon of Silicon Valley.