奧巴馬民眾支持率下降到底意味著什么

????這兩條曲線是如此的吻合。對此，我們可以從這樣一個角度來理解：在小布什的第二個任期中，人們越發認為總統是問題的一部分。隨著情況惡化——小布什政府開始無法控制伊拉克局勢，在新奧爾良這座大城市遭遇洪災時又令人震驚地無所作為——既有人認為小布什有能力解決問題，可能也有同樣數量的人認為小布什本身就代表著壞消息。共和黨民調專家大衛?溫斯頓指出，卡特里娜颶風促使人們更快地重新評估小布什政府。他說：“那是個非常關鍵的轉折點。鑒于當時美國的局勢，人們對小布什的作用和對總統職能的看法出現了變化?！?/p>

????現在，讓我們來看一看按照同樣的標準奧巴馬的情況如何：?????

????One way to understand why these two trend lines match up so neatly in Bush's second term is that people increasingly viewed the President as part of the problem. As things got worse—with the Bush administration losing control of the situation in Iraq and mounting a shockingly incompetent response to the flooding of a major American city—Bush himself was as likely to be seen as a feature of the bad news as he was a potential solution to it. Republican pollster David Winston says Katrina accelerated that reassessment. "That was very much a key inflection moment in terms of how people viewed his role and the presidency given the situation with the country," he says.

????Now look at how Obama's fortunes relate to the same measure:??????

????作為倡導改變的候選人，奧巴馬首次入主白宮時整個美國都處于經濟崩潰的邊緣。這兩條曲線的起點相距這么遠并不奇怪，因為民眾知道奧巴馬接手的是一場危機，而且把票投給他的目的就是要化解這次危機。五年來，民眾對美國局勢的滿意程度一直在20%上下波動。而奧巴馬的支持率一直高于這個水平，主要是因為人們持久的善意。

????2012年大選期間，在投票站出口進行的調查有助于證明，這種善意仍在延續——53%的選民仍認為當時美國面臨的經濟問題應更多地歸咎于小布什，而不是奧巴馬，而持相反意見的選民只占38%。溫斯頓指出，2013年春末，選民終于開始認為奧巴馬應該為經濟復蘇緩慢負責——從那時起奧巴馬的支持率一路下滑，這正是民意發生轉變的體現；它同時表明，醫改困局的不利影響有可能擴大。

????奧巴馬也許可以度過這場危機，人們也可能一如既往地相信他能夠解決問題。正如《紐約時報》的這篇文章中部分批評人士所說，颶風災害是孤立事件。只要應對不當，小布什就不會有第二次或者第三次機會來予以糾正。而另一方面，實施醫改法案是個不斷推進的過程。本月底奧巴馬就會得到第一次重新來過的機會——政府已經承諾，屆時醫改網站Healthcare.gov將向絕大多數用戶開放。

????然而，如果醫改不斷地出岔子，對奧巴馬領導班子的信心就會繼續減弱，他的支持率曲線就會和民眾對美國現狀的滿意度曲線重合——這種情況將表明，實施醫改以來一直存在的重大管理失誤已經開始讓大批民眾重新對奧巴馬的工作進行評估。而且就像小布什當初所經歷的那樣，第二個總統任期苦不堪言的局面將難以改變。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie????????

????He rode a movement candidacy to office at a time when the entire country teetered on the brink of economic collapse. No wonder then that the two trend lines start so far apart: People understood that he inherited a crisis and had been elected to fix it. Over the last five years, popular satisfaction with the state of affairs has bumped along around the 20 percent line. But Obama has managed to float above that assessment on a cushion of enduring goodwill.

????An exit poll from the 2012 election helps explain that durability: By a margin of 53 to 38, voters continued to blame Bush more than Obama for the country's current economic troubles. Winston argues voters finally began assigning responsibility for the sluggish recovery to Obama in late spring of 2013—a development evident in his waning popularity ever since, and one that the healthcare fiasco threatens to exacerbate.

????It may be that the President can emerge from this crisis with his problem-solving credentials intact. As some of the critics of the Katrina comparison note, the hurricane was a discreet event. Once Bush bungled the response, he didn't get a second or third chance to make it right. The implementation of the healthcare law, on the other hand, is rolling process. Obama will get his first do-over at the end of the month, when his administration has pledged to have Healthcare.gov accessible to the vast majority of users.

????But if foul-ups keep dogging the law, look for confidence in Obama's leadership to continue its tailspin. His approval rating will merge with the gauge of the general state of affairs—a signal that the epic management failure defining the healthcare rollout so far has prompted a wholesale reevaluation of the President. And as Bush's example shows, second-term woes can be hard to shake.