新掌門的實用主義能讓英特爾東山再起嗎？

????在英特爾（Intel）的傳奇歷史中，這家公司的投資實質上都是基于對摩爾定律（Moore's law）的信任。這個定律是一個觀測得出的推論，用英特爾創始人的名字命名，它的內容是：集成電路上可容納的晶體管數目每兩年就會翻倍。

????不過，如果說摩爾的定律今天依然有效，他共同創立的這家公司的股價就不怎么規律了。過去兩年中，英特爾的股價幾乎維持在每股25美元不動——嚴格意義上來說，是下降了4%，與納斯達克綜合指數同期上漲52%的走勢背道而馳。貝斯普克投資集團（Bespoke Investment）表示，過去八個季度，每當英特爾公布財報收益時，股價都會下跌。

????英特爾表現欠佳很大程度上是因為它長期依賴PC市場的芯片行業。而PC銷量在平板電腦時代一直在萎縮。這不是英特爾芯片的技術問題，而是使用芯片的設備問題——尤其是平板電腦和智能手機。英特爾正在努力開辟通往移動產品芯片市場的道路，力圖開發未來可穿戴式電腦和物聯網時代的設備。

????這就是給去年五月就任英特爾首席執行官的布萊恩?科茲安尼克肩頭的任務：將英特爾帶入后PC時代。1982年從圣何塞州立大學（San Jose State University）畢業后，科茲安尼克就加入了英特爾，在這家公司的制造業務部門經歷了多次升遷。他的工程出身受到了英特爾的歡迎，不過一些投資者懷疑他是否有能力讓這家芯片制造商東山再起。

????英特爾的前幾任首席執行官都很高調，而科茲安尼克被任命為英特爾的領袖時，仍然讓人感到些許神秘。之后，他便以一個安靜務實的領袖的形象出現，同時以明智而實際的舉措吸引了一些華爾街的投資者。加拿大蒙特利爾銀行資本（BMO Capital）的分析師安布里什?斯里瓦斯塔瓦在本月的一份報告中寫道：“在很大程度上，我們看見英特爾更愿意迎接和處理自己面臨的挑戰了。”

????去年11月英特爾的投資者日上，科茲安尼克展現了自己的一部分決心。英特爾董事長安迪?布萊恩特告訴投資者他“個人對公司似乎失去了前進的方向感到難堪”之后，科茲安尼克上前分析了導致英特爾遭到iPad意外打擊的公司文化問題。他說：“我們變得狹隘了。我們著眼于我們最好的產品，而忽視了市場前進的方向?！?/p>

????在那個時刻，科茲安尼克向投資者展現出了一個能夠把握市場脈搏、帶領公司回歸正軌的英特爾“土著”工程師的形象。仿佛要表現他打破陳規的決心一般，他承諾將擴張公司的合同制造業務規模，讓更多的芯片制造商能夠接觸到皇冠上的寶石——英特爾先進的處理器技術。

????科茲安尼克的復興大計還需要一些時間才能見到成效。上周，英特爾發布了最新季度的財報收益。由于當季PC發貨量降低了10%，這家公司傳統的PC芯片業務收入減少了4%。與之相反，英特爾數據中心集團的收入上漲了8%，遠低于分析家們預測的兩位數漲幅。英特爾認為，原因在于商品積壓和企業界在信息技術方面的開銷增長緩慢。

????All along Intel's (INTC) storied history, an investment in the company has essentially been a vote of confidence in Moore's law -- the observation, named after an Intel founder, that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years.

????But if Moore's law is still working well enough, the stock of the company he co-founded has not been advancing quite as steadily. Over the past two years, the stock is largely unchanged from its current $25 a share price -- technically, it's down 4% in that period, against a 52% rise in the Nasdaq Composite. And as Bespoke Investment noted, the stock has gapped down each of the past eight quarters Intel has posted earnings.

????Much of Intel's subpar performance is tied to its longtime dependence on chips for the PC market, which has seen sales dwindle in the era of the tablet. It's not an issue of the technology of Intel's chips, it's the devices they're going into -- tablets and smartphones, in particular. Intel has been struggling to find a way into mobile chips, as well as devices in emerging areas like wearable computers and the Internet of Things.

????That has left Brian Krzanich, appointed as Intel's CEO last May, tasked with pushing Intel into the post-PC era. Krzanich joined Intel after graduating from San Jose State University in 1982, rising through a number of positions in the company's manufacturing operations. His roots in engineering were welcome inside Intel, but some investors wondered whether he had what it takes to revive the chipmaker.

????Following in the footsteps of several high-profile CEOs before him, Krzanich was something of a mystery when he was tapped to lead Intel. He has since emerged as a quietly practical leader with a shrewd, no-nonsense approach that appeals to some on Wall Street. "At a very high level," BMO Capital analyst Ambrish Srivastava wrote in a report this month, "we see the company more willing to accept and address the challenges that the company faces."

????Some of Krzanich's grit became evident during Intel's investor day in November. After Intel Chairman Andy Bryant told the investment crowd he was "personally embarrassed that we seem to have lost our way," Krzanich stepped forth to diagnose the cultural problem that led Intel to be blindsided by the iPad: "We'd become insular," he said. "We'd become focused on what was our best product vs. where the market wanted to move."

????In that moment, Krzanich presented himself to investors as the born-and-bred Intel engineer who would find the market's pulse and reposition the company toward it. As if to show his resolve in breaking with tradition, he vowed to expand the company's contract manufacturing business, allowing more chipmakers access to a crown jewel, Intel's advanced process technology.

????For Krzanich's turnaround to work, it will need some time. Last week, when Intel reported earnings for the most recent quarter, its traditional business of PC chips saw revenue decline 4% in a quarter when PC shipments fell 10%. Conversely, revenue from Intel's data-center group rose 8%, well below the double-digit rate analysts were expecting. Intel blamed that on excess inventory and a slow recovery in corporate IT spending.