美國經濟：貌似災難，實則不然

9月1日刊的《財富》雜志將連續刊發兩篇文章（包括本文及其姊妹篇——《美國人認為當前經濟極不景氣的六個原因》），探討了為什么大多數美國人依然認為當前的經濟是一場災難。

經濟學又被稱為“悲觀科學”，不過最近在圍繞國情咨文引發的爭議中，經濟學家們反而是最樂觀的一群人。

倒是政治家、選民和媒體最近都在哀嘆，覺得美國經濟最近這段還算平靜的日子怕是沒多久了，美國或許很快就會被另一次經濟危機所籠罩。但美國最知名的經濟學家珍妮特·耶倫卻向我們保證：“擴張不會死于年老。”她還表示，只要我們能夠避免政策錯誤或另一次打擊，我們就沒有理由認為經濟會再度下滑。

經濟學家們喜歡用數據支持他們的論點，對美國經濟增長持樂觀態度的經濟學家們自然也有很多數據給他們撐腰。比如最近一段時間的低利率周期。悲觀主義者認為，利率之所以會這么低，是因為私人投資者認為，除了政府債務以外，市場上已經沒有什么投資機會了。然而從另一個角度看，它也證明了投資者對美國政府的償債能力是有信心的。另外，低利率也為大規模的基礎設施建設打下了良好基礎——以拉里·薩默斯為代表的一些思想家認為，大規模的基礎建設投資將為美國未來數十年的增長提供強大動力，并且將有助于解決美國的失業問題。

就業市場的形勢又如何呢？我們總是聽見這樣一種說法：盡管目前美國的總體失業率低于5%，且就業市場每月新增職位數都在186,000個左右，但工資的增長依然趨于停滯，這充分說明了就業形勢正日趨嚴峻。但是如果你把其他一些人口因素也計算在內（比如低收入的年輕勞動者在勞動市場上了取代高收入的老年勞動者），你就會發現，自2002年以來，工資水平實際上是穩步提升的。據舊金山聯邦儲備銀行最近的一項研究顯示，按照這一標準，2015年，普通勞動者的工資水平實際上漲了3.1%——雖然從歷史上看，這一增幅并不算很大，但還是比很多媒體的悲觀預測高了不少。

工資水平也不是唯一上漲了的東西。今年8月，標普500指數再創新高。與此同時，全美多地的房地產市場也同樣高歌猛進。據房地產數據機構CoreLogic稱，近來美國40%的城市的房價再創新高，另外還有30%的城市的房價離泡沫年份的最高紀錄已相差不到10%。這表明很多擁有住房的美國人的身價已經比8年前高出了許多。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

In the September 1st issue of Fortune, a version of this article ran alongside “The Real Reasons Americans Think the Economy Is So Bad,” about why most Americans still think the economy is a disaster.

Economics is called the dismal science, but of late its practitioners have shown themselves to be most optimistic figures in the debate over the state of the union.

Politicians, voters, and yes, journalists, have all recently fretted that this placid moment in the American economy won’t last, and that the third-longest period between recessions in post-war history, will soon give way to another crisis. But it was America’s highest-ranking economist, Janet Yellen, who assured us that “expansions don’t die of old age,” and that there’s no reason to expect a downturn, as long as we can avoid policy mistakes or another shock.

Economists like to back their arguments up with data, and the case for optimism about American growth has a lot of it on its side. Take for, instance, the recent period of low interest rates. The bear case is that money is so cheap because private actors see few opportunities for investment other than government debt. But looked at another way, it proves the confidence investors have in the American government’s ability to pay them back. And those low rates have set the stage for the kind of aggressive infrastructure spending that Larry Summers and other thinkers say could fuel decades of growth and solve the American underemployment problem.

And what about that job market? We hear all the time that wage growth is stagnant even as a sub-5% unemployment rate and average monthly job growth of 186,000 suggests that labor markets are getting tighter every day. But pay has actually risen steadily since 2002 when you control for other demographic trends (lower-paid younger workers replacing higher-paid older ones). According to a recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, by this measure, on average workers saw their pay rise 3.1% in 2015—historically not gangbusters growth, but picking up much faster than the gloomy headlines suggest.

Wages aren’t the only thing on the rise. The S&P 500 touched a new high this August, while many housing markets across the country are doing the same. According to real estate data firm CoreLogic, the real estate markets 40% of U.S. metro areas have reached new peaks, with another 30% are within 10% of their highs during the bubble years. That means that many Americans that own their own homes are far richer today than eight years ago.