2017年將是“零極世界元年”，全球面臨十大風險

一項最新研究認為，從2017年開始，全球將進入“零極世界”，也就是一個沒有全球老大的世界。

這項由歐亞集團發布的研究報告，旨在幫助投資者理解政治影響給國外市場帶來了哪些風險和機遇。這種“零極世界”理論主要基于以下一系列因素：美國當全球老大的興趣減弱；美國盟友的實力減弱；中俄宣稱要取代美國在國際安全和經濟領域的地位；英國脫歐；《泛太平洋伙伴關系協定》（TPP）崩潰；俄羅斯最近在敘利亞取得勝利。

但真正把這種“零極世界”引入決定性階段的，還是唐納德·特朗普當選為美國總統。這一事件引發了一場該公司所稱的“地緣政治衰退”。歐亞集團認為，2017年將是二戰結束以來政治環境最不穩定的一年，對全球市場的影響至少不亞于2008年的全球經濟衰退。”

為了進一步理解2017年的全球局勢，歐亞集團發布了2017年的政治風險預測報告，逐一列舉該公司認為今年最有可能出現的十大風險。

1.特朗普和他的“獨立美國”

在競選期間，以及即將到來的總統任期，特朗普始終圍繞一個本質上屬于美國的價值觀大做文章。那就是“獨立。”從“讓美國再次偉大”，到“美國第一”哲學，特朗普企圖“擺脫多邊機構和一系列盟友放置在美國身上的負擔，”從而讓美國從“全球事務不可或缺的角色”中“獨立”出來。

“這并非是孤立主義政策。”歐亞集團寫道，“作為全球最強大國家的領導人，特朗普拒絕擔任一位相對弱勢的總統。他希望讓美國實力更直接地為國家利益服務。他是一個堅決的單邊主義者。”

2.中國可能加大應對周邊形勢的力度

歐亞集團指出，東亞地區局勢日趨復雜。中國、中國周邊及日本、朝鮮等問題，都有可能導致中國采取強硬的手段。

3.德國總理默克爾趨于弱勢

最近，一項在國內和歐洲都缺乏支持的移民政策，一連串重量級企業（如大眾、德意志銀行和漢莎航空）相繼爆發的危機，以及民粹主義的興起，顯著蠶食了默克爾的領導力。

“歐洲現在比以往任何時候都更加需要一個強勢的默克爾，但是2017年，她可能無法扮演這個角色。”

4.缺乏改革

歐亞集團認為，無論是發達國家還是發展中國家的官員，都會不約而同地避免結構性改革，由此將影響經濟增長前景和投資者的新機遇。

“2017年不會出現什么改革步伐。除了少數亮點領域之外，資本將不知道向何處流動。”

5.中東的科技發展

事實證明，中東地區科技水平的發展不僅沒有促進經濟增長，反而成了一個影響該地區政局穩定的因素。能源、連通性、網絡、自動化等技術和急速的技術透明化等因素，都將對該地區的政府、威權體制乃至整個中東格局構成挑戰。

“科技是經濟增長和效率的推動因素，但它同時也加劇了中東的政治動蕩。”

6.央行更加政治化

政客們已經將政治和經濟問題歸咎在央行身上，但歐亞集團預測稱，這種攻擊“有可能顛覆央行以提供金融和經濟穩定為宗旨的技術官僚角色，”從而給2017年的全球市場帶來風險。

“德國財政部長沃爾夫岡朔伊布勒曾指出，低利率減少了歐洲邊緣國家改革其不可持續的經濟模式的動機。在美國大選期間，特朗普指責美聯儲支持希拉里。在這兩個例子中，央行的明顯政治化正在打破長期以來的國內政治文化禁忌。”

7.白宮與硅谷的關系

除彼得·蒂爾之外，加州的大多數科技界領袖都不支持特朗普的政策。特朗普呼吁國家安全，而硅谷提倡自由和隱私。特朗普想在美國創造更多的就業機會，而硅谷正在推動勞動力自動化。不過，對特朗普提出的稅制改革和減少政府監管的政策，硅谷想必還是很歡迎的。

歐亞集團指出：“特朗普肯定會給一些非常知名的公司找麻煩，不管他是因為何種原因對這些公司抱有成見。而很多被他盯上的公司也必定會吃虧。但這種行為只是針對某幾家公司，并不是一個結構性問題。特朗普跟硅谷的矛盾則完全是另一回事。加州在大選時是希拉里的大票倉，這些科技領袖肯定會跟新總統發生爭執的。”

8.土耳其

歐亞集團指出，去年七月那次失敗的政變進一步加大了土耳其的政局變數，尤其是在這樣一個緊急狀態不斷的國家。目前，土耳其總統埃爾多安已經“收緊”了對司法部門、官僚機構、媒體和商界的控制，繼續嘗試著將“事實上的權力擴充”合法化。

“隨著對領導人權力的制約越來越少，私人部門將更容易受到政治風波的影響。”

9.朝鮮

朝鮮日益增長的核武力是值得擔憂的，因為朝鮮當局已經“大大推進了他們的核武和導彈項目，并且必將進一步推進。”預計2017年美國將加大對朝鮮的制裁力度，并謀求推動朝鮮棄核。但朝鮮的核武力仍有進一步提高的風險。

“朝鮮正在洲際彈道導彈方面持續取得進步，最終可能擁有能夠打到美國西海岸的核武器。”

10．南非

歐亞集團預測稱，南非總統祖瑪將阻止“改革者采取必要步驟恢復該國的經濟穩定”。2017年，祖瑪與其反對者之間的政治危機也將惡化，而這將使南非經濟陷入更大風險，繼而損害該地區的穩定。

“南非的政治內斗將有損該國在地區安全上扮演的傳統角色。”（財富中文網）

作者：Madeline Farber

譯者：樸成奎

With 2017 comes the beginning of a "G-Zero world," or a world with no global leader, according to a new study.

Eurasia Group, which tries to help investors understand the impact of politics on the risks and opportunities in foreign markets, blames a number of factors: the U.S.’s decreasing interest in assuming leadership, weaker U.S. allies, Russia and China asserting themselves as security and economic alternatives to the U.S., Brexit, the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Russia’s recent victory in Syria.

But it was Donald Trump's election that brought this G-Zero world to a head, resulting in what the firm calls a "geopolitical recession." This year, according to the Eurasia Group, "marks the most volatile political risk environment in the postwar period, at least as important to global markets as the economic recession of 2008."

To comprehend what 2017 may bring on a global scale, the group has released its annual forecast of the political risks it says are the most likely to play out over the year:

Donald Trump and his "Independent America"

Trump has surrounded his campaign, and now his forthcoming presidency, on one core American value: Independence, according to Eurasia Group. From "Make America Great Again” to his America first philosophy, Trump plans to make the U.S. "independent" from its responsibility to play "an indispensable role in world affairs" by "shaking off the burdens placed on the U.S, by multilateral institutions and a range of allies.”

"This is not isolationism,” the group writes. “As leader of the world’s most powerful country, Trump rejects the comparative weakness of the presidency, and he wants to more directly project American power in service of U.S. national interests. He’s a resolute unilateralist."

China could overreact

Fear and frustration among China’s party and business elites are at their highest level since Mao Zedong’s time, according to Eurasia Group. Provocations in North Korea, the East China Sea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea all have the potential to cause an overreaction from Chinese leaders.

"[President] Xi will be extremely sensitive to external challenges to his country’s interests at a time when all eyes are on his leadership,” the group predicts. “The Chinese president will be more likely than ever to respond forcefully to foreign policy challenges."

Germany's Angela Merkel will be less powerful

A refugee policy that lacks support (both in Germany and in Europe), a series of corporate crises involving some of Germany’s most important companies, (Volkswagen, Deutsche Bank, and Lufthansa), and the rise of populism have all undermined Merkel's leadership as of late.

"Europe has never needed a strong Merkel more,” according to the group. “In 2017, she’ll be unavailable for the role."

No reform

Eurasia Group predicts that political officials, both in developed and emerging economies, will avoid structural reform—thus undermining prospects for growth and new opportunities for investors.

"The reform needle won’t move in 2017. Save for a few bright spots, money won’t know where to flow."

Technology in the Middle East

Technology has proven to be a force of political instability in the Middle East instead of enhancing economic growth. Energy, connectivity, cyber, automation, and forced technological transparency will all challenge many of the region's governments, existing and authoritarian regimes, and Middle Eastern systems.

"Technology, a force for economic growth and efficiency, also exacerbates political instability."

Central banks are becoming political

Politicians have blamed central bankers for political and economic difficulties, but these attacks represent a risk to global markets in 2017 by "threatening to upend central banks’ roles as technocratic institutions that provide financial and economic stability," the group predicts.、

"In Germany, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has argued that low interest rates have reduced the incentive for peripheral European states to reform their unsustainable economic models. Trump accused the Federal Reserve of supporting Hillary Clinton during the U.S. presidential election campaign. In each of these cases, overt politicization of central banking is breaking longstanding taboos in domestic political cultures."

The White House vs. Silicon Valley

Most of the technology leaders in California, aside from Peter Thiel, disagree with the President-elect's policies: Trump supports national security, while Silicon Valley promotes freedom and privacy. Trump wants to create more jobs in the U.S., while Silicon Valley is pushing for workplace automation. However, Silicon Valley will welcome Trump’s support for corporate tax reform and more streamlined government regulation.

"Trump will surely go after some high-profile organizations that he, for whatever reason, has a personal gripe with, and many of those companies will take a tumble,” according to the Eurasia Group. “But that’s a problem only for individual firms, not a structural issue. The conflict with Silicon Valley is different. Technology leaders from California, the major state that voted in largest numbers against Trump in the election, have a bone to pick with the new president."

Turkey

July's failed coup has led to even great political uncertainty, especially in a country with an ongoing state of emergency, notes the Eurasia Group. President Erdogan has been "tightening his hold" on the judiciary, bureaucracy, media, and business sector—continually trying to legitimize his "de facto expansion of powers," according to the firm.

"Ever-fewer checks on executive power will leave the private sector vulnerable to political whims."

North Korea

North Korea's growing nuclear power is worrisome, as the country's government has "substantially advanced their nuclear and missile programs and are set to expand them further," the group writes. In 2017, the U.S. will increase sanctions and make a push to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons, but the risk of nuclear capability will grow.

"[North Korea] is making consistent progress on an intercontinental ballistic missile capability that would allow it to hit the West Coast of the U.S. with a nuclear weapon."

South Africa

President Jacob Zuma will prevent "reformers from taking needed steps to restore the country’s economic stability," the Eurasia Group predicts. The political crisis between Zuma and his opponents will also worsen in 2017—a factor that will put the South African economy at an even greater risk and subsequently damage its regional stability.

"South Africa’s political infighting will undermine the country’s traditional role as a force for regional security."