南極一冰架崩解在即，或致全球經濟遭受嚴重損失

英國科學家上周三表示，再過“幾周、幾天甚至幾小時”，一座巨大的冰山就將從南極的拉爾森C冰架上分離出來。

英國科學家寫道：“冰山一旦崩解，拉爾森C冰架將會失去超過10%的面積，其冰蓋也將退縮到有記載以來最靠后的位置。這一事件將徹底改變南極半島的地形地貌。”

這座預計將分離出來的冰山的面積與美國的特拉華州大致相當，這也使它成為科學家們有史以來觀測到的最大的冰山之一。科研人員估計，這一災難有可能引發整個拉爾森C冰架的坍塌，最終可能導致全球海平面升高4英寸。

此次災難甚至有可能導致全球經濟都遭受到其負面影響。今年三月，英國《衛報》報道稱，全球沿海地區有價值數萬億美元的資產正面臨著被海水淹沒的危險。德國的研究人員估計，全球海平面每升高4.3英寸（約11厘米），帶來的經濟損失就會增加一倍。（有沒有人借機發“海難財”呢？當然有。一些保險公司和風險分析師都認為，銷售“海水損失險”，是借助冰山融化大賺一筆的好機會。）

此次發布南極冰山斷裂警報的，是一個叫做“MIDAS工程”的南極研究組織，該組織主要研究全球氣候變化對南極冰架的影響。

《今日美國》指出：“并無證據表明這道裂縫的增大乃至冰山的最終斷裂與氣候變化之間有任何聯系。”不過科學界已經普遍認為，海洋與大氣溫度的升高是導致此前南極半島上幾次冰山崩解事件的因素之一。（比如1995年的拉爾森A冰架，和2002年的拉爾森B冰架。）（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

A massive iceberg is “hours, days, or weeks” away from separating from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf, scientists based in the United Kingdom said Wednesday.

“When it calves, the Larsen C Ice Shelf will lose more than 10% of its area to leave the ice front at its most retreated position ever recorded," the scientists wrote. "This event will fundamentally change the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula."

The iceberg that forms from the predicted separation could end up being roughly the size of Delaware, making it one of the largest icebergs that scientists have ever observed. The event could trigger a collapse of the entire Larsen C ice shelf, a catastrophe that could raise worldwide sea levels by four inches, researchers estimate.

That outcome has the potential to harm the world’s economy. In March, the Guardian reported that trillions of dollars of coastal assets were at risk of flooding. Researchers in Germany estimate that economic losses double for every 4.3-inch (11 cm) increase in sea levels. (The silver lining? Insurance companies and risk analysts see a potential big business in selling flooding insurance to capitalize on potential deluges caused by melting ice caps.)

The scientists behind the Larsen C prediction are part of an Antarctic research group called Project MIDAS that investigates how global climate change impacts the ice shelf.

"There is no evidence to link the growth of this rift, and the eventual calving, to climate change," USA Today notes—though it is widely accepted in the scientific community that warming ocean and atmospheric temperatures were a factor in earlier disintegrations of ice shelves (e.g. Larsen A in 1995, Larsen B in 2002) on the Antarctic Peninsula.