經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測，2018年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速“為近年最佳”

高盛集團(tuán)（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）和巴克萊銀行（Barclays Plc）預(yù)測，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將在明年達(dá)到4%，G7經(jīng)濟(jì)體的表現(xiàn)預(yù)計(jì)將自2010年以來第一次超出預(yù)期。一位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，這種樂觀的預(yù)測“為近年最佳”。

彭博社（Bloomberg）報(bào)道稱，如果明年全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率達(dá)到4%，將會(huì)是2011年以來的最高值，也比高盛對今年的預(yù)估值3.7%更高。在高盛11月的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景報(bào)告中，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家揚(yáng)·哈祖斯表示，多數(shù)大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的表現(xiàn)比金融危機(jī)之前的平均水平更高。高盛的報(bào)告顯示，明年預(yù)期的GDP增長“將顯著高于輿論預(yù)期，并受到寬松的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和財(cái)政政策支撐?！?/p>

在另一份11月的報(bào)告中，巴克萊銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿賈伊·拉賈德哈爾克薩和邁克爾·加文寫道：“持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張勢頭良好?！?/p>

他們表示：“這種經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張沒有過度依靠某個(gè)單一地區(qū)、行業(yè)或需求來源。它似乎也沒有引發(fā)會(huì)帶來直接威脅的經(jīng)濟(jì)或金融過度?！?/p>

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）2018年的全球宏觀展望報(bào)告要保守一些，預(yù)測來年是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的一年，理由是穩(wěn)定的“調(diào)節(jié)性貨幣政策和更多的財(cái)政刺激”。

摩根士丹利的報(bào)告預(yù)測，成熟市場的穩(wěn)步增長在新興市場的對比下將略顯失色，后者的通貨膨脹率將與亞洲為首的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體相匹配。摩根士丹利表示，2018年的貨幣政策將保持?jǐn)U張性，這是包括美國在內(nèi)的一些關(guān)鍵的成熟市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體的財(cái)政政策。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面，包括通貨膨脹加速帶來的缺口，資產(chǎn)估值過高導(dǎo)致的財(cái)政緊縮，以及破壞全球貿(mào)易的行為可能導(dǎo)致的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義。

盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)增長，但幾乎沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為會(huì)出現(xiàn)通脹激增的情況，大部分人預(yù)測通脹速度會(huì)處于中央銀行家樂意看見的范圍內(nèi)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Outlooks for next year from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.?and Barclays Plc?predict global growth will reach 4%, with G7 economies expected to beat projections for the first time since 2010. One economist deemed that optimistic forecast “as good as it gets.”

A global growth rate of 4% next year would be the strongest since 2011, and an increase from the 3.7% Goldman Sachs estimated for this year, reports . Most major economies are even running ahead of pre-financial crisis averages, said economist Jan Hatzius in Goldman’s November Economic Outlook report. The Goldman report says the projected GDP growth for next year is “notably above consensus expectations and supported by still-easy financial conditions and fiscal policy.”

In a separate November report, Barclays economists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Michael Gavin wrote that “the ongoing economic expansion has substantial momentum.’’

“It is not overly reliant on any single geographical region, industry, or source of demand,” they said. “It does not seem to have generated economic or financial excesses that pose an immediate threat.’’

Taking a more moderate view, Morgan Stanley’s? 2018 Global Macro Outlook report predicts the year ahead will be one of global recovery, supported by unmoving “accommodative monetary policy and more fiscal stimulus.”

Morgan Stanley’s report forecasts steady growth in developed markets that will be eclipsed by emerging markets; inflation rates in the latter markets will match those in emerging economies, led by Asia. Monetary policy is set to remain expansionary in 2018, Morgan Stanley says, as is fiscal policy in several key developed market economies, including the U.S. Risks related to estimating the shortfall of faster inflation, tightening finances owing to rich asset valuations, and a disruption in global trade which could lead to protectionism.

Despite growth, few economists anticipate any surges in inflation, with most forecasting a gradual acceleration that central bankers should welcome.