歐亞集團(tuán)：2018年是“巨大突發(fā)危機(jī)”醞釀成熟之時(shí)

歐亞集團(tuán)（Eurasia Group）在年度展望中警告稱，今年可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)地緣政治危機(jī)，其規(guī)模堪比十年前的金融危機(jī)。

這家位于紐約的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)咨詢公司認(rèn)為全球的政治挑戰(zhàn)“令人生畏”，表示“如果我們不得不選擇巨大突發(fā)危機(jī)——那種堪比2008年金融危機(jī)的地緣政治危機(jī)——會(huì)發(fā)生的一年，那可能就是2018年。

歐亞集團(tuán)的總裁伊恩·布雷默在彭博電視臺(tái)（Bloomberg Television）的訪談中對(duì)湯姆·基恩和弗朗辛·拉奎表示：“由于政府的干涉日益增加，全球市場變得更加分裂。部分原因在于中國人成為了一個(gè)可選的投資模式，他們?cè)絹碓奖豢醋魅蚱渌?jīng)濟(jì)體最重要的驅(qū)動(dòng)者?！?

以下是歐亞集團(tuán)2018年最為擔(dān)憂的一些問題：

錯(cuò)估

一旦出現(xiàn)過失或錯(cuò)誤判斷，就可能激起嚴(yán)重國際沖突的領(lǐng)域?qū)嵲谔唷＞W(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊、朝鮮、敘利亞、俄羅斯和恐怖主義等，都是可能犯錯(cuò)并導(dǎo)致對(duì)抗的危險(xiǎn)問題。

歐亞集團(tuán)表示：“我們并非處在第三次世界大戰(zhàn)的邊緣，但現(xiàn)在沒有誰可以保證全球的安全。隨著有能力采取破壞行動(dòng)的次國家和非國家行為體增多，這個(gè)世界如今更加危險(xiǎn)?！?

技術(shù)冷戰(zhàn)

技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展會(huì)重塑經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治秩序，而這一過程將混亂不堪。對(duì)市場支配地位的爭奪，市場分裂和新技術(shù)研發(fā)競賽等都會(huì)導(dǎo)致分歧。

歐亞集團(tuán)表示：“隨著我們的汽車、房屋、工廠和公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開始產(chǎn)生堆積如山的數(shù)據(jù)，隨著互聯(lián)互通演化為增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)，新一代人類將會(huì)不知疲倦地努力工作，這對(duì)社會(huì)和地緣政治具有重要的意義。不過在那以前，為了擴(kuò)大經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，全球會(huì)展開最為激烈的競爭?！?

伊朗

美國與伊朗在2018年的關(guān)系將是廣泛的地緣政治和市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一大源頭。如果伊朗核協(xié)議在今年被撕毀，中東地區(qū)將陷入真正的危機(jī)。

歐亞集團(tuán)表示：“特朗普討厭伊朗。無論正確與否，他把伊朗看作世界上許多邪惡問題的根源。”

保護(hù)主義

在民粹主義、國家資本主義和地緣政治加劇緊張的情況下，保護(hù)主義將更加大行其道。政府也在介入數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)和創(chuàng)新密集型行業(yè)，保護(hù)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)和相關(guān)技術(shù)。

歐亞集團(tuán)表示：“發(fā)達(dá)國家市場反政府運(yùn)動(dòng)的興起已經(jīng)迫使（在某些情況下是允許）決策者采取更加重商主義的手段去應(yīng)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)競爭，并表現(xiàn)得像是在采取措施奪回流失的工作崗位。墻壁正在建立起來?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

This year could see a geopolitical crisis on the scale of the financial crash a decade ago, Eurasia Group warned in its annual outlook.

Describing global political challenges as “daunting,” the New York-based political risk consultancy said that “if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018.” The biggest uncertainty surrounds China’s move to fill a vacuum as U.S. influence continues to decline, stoking tensions between the two powers, it said. That’s likely to affect economics as well.

“We see a much greater fragmentation of the global marketplace because governments are becoming more interventionist,” Eurasia President Ian Bremmer said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua. “Part of that is because the Chinese have an alternative model for their investments and they’re increasingly going to be seen as the most important driver of other economies around the world who will align themselves more with Beijing than with Washington.”

Here are some of Eurasia’s biggest worries in 2018:

Miscalculations

There are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict. Cyberattacks, North Korea, Syria, Russia and terrorism are some of the risks that could trigger a mistake that leads to confrontation.

“We aren’t on the brink of World War III,” Eurasia said. “But absent a global security underwriter, and with a proliferation of subnational and non-state actors capable of destabilizing action, the world is a more dangerous place.”

Technology Cold War

As rapid technological developments reshape the economic and political order, the process will be messy. Fault lines include a struggle for market dominance, fragmentation and a race for new technologies.

“As our cars, homes, factories, and public infrastructure begin to generate mountains of data, and as connectivity morphs into augmented reality, a new generation of humans will be ‘on the grid’ around the clock, with important implications for society and geopolitics,” Eurasia said. “But until we get there, it’s the world’s biggest fight over economic power.”

Iran

Relations between the U.S. and Iran in 2018 will be a source of broad geopolitical and market risk. If the nuclear deal doesn’t survive the year, the Middle East could be pushed into a real crisis.

“Trump has it in for Iran,” Eurasia said. “Rightly or wrongly, he sees the country as the root of much evil in the world.”

Protectionism

Protectionism will make further inroads led by populism, state capitalism and heightened geopolitical tensions. Governments are also intervening in the digital economy and innovation-intensive industries to preserve intellectual property and related technologies.

“The rise of anti-establishment movements in developed markets has forced (in some cases, enabled) policy makers to shift toward a more mercantilist approach to global economic competition and to look as if they’re doing something about lost jobs,” Eurasia said. “Walls are going up.”