蒂勒森去職，“金特會”變數增多

美國總統唐納德·特朗普解雇最高外交官，使得他與朝鮮領導人金正恩的首腦會晤計劃，面臨更大的風險。

雷克斯·蒂勒森在被解雇前的幾個月內，曾就是否應該與朝鮮對話和總統發生沖突，特朗普同意與金正恩會面之前也未征求蒂勒森的意見。已被提名為國務卿的鷹派中央情報局局長邁克·蓬佩奧對特朗普倉促決定接受會談邀請的作法進行了辯護。

“金特會”存在巨大的風險。特朗普將成為首位與朝鮮領導人會晤的在任美國總統。如果會談順利，將為未來的談判奠定基礎。但雙方領導人也可能發生沖突，重提摧毀對方國家的威脅。

由于蒂勒森在被解雇之前就已經被邊緣化，因此可能正是蓬佩奧放大了特朗普依靠自己直覺的欲望，而這正是朝鮮觀察家們擔心的問題之一。此前特朗普多次警告采取軍事行動，以阻止金正恩開發核武器，而美國防部長詹姆斯·馬蒂斯和蒂勒森的態度卻較為溫和。

哈佛大學肯尼迪學院（Harvard Kennedy School）的韓國工作組主任約翰·樸表示，“金特會”將是一次復雜的談判，“在邁出第一步之前，你必須想到最后一步。”他說道：“這些年斷斷續續的談判如同在攀爬山峰，但在登頂之后又從山的另一面滑落下來。已經宣布的5月份‘金特會’就是一座高峰。如果會談失敗，我們會被摔得粉身碎骨。”

特朗普只是根據韓國官員的簡報接受了朝方的邀請，根本沒有看到任何書面文件。蒂勒森在最后一次官方發言中表示，朝鮮甚至沒有與美國接觸，確定會晤細節。

即便會談順利舉行，出現錯判的風險非常高。朝鮮到現在仍未確認是否愿意放棄核武器。最近與金正恩會面的韓國特使，著重向特朗普傳達了這一點。

特朗普在3月9日發推文稱：“金正恩與韓國代表討論了無核化議題，不止是凍結核武項目。”

另外，特朗普身邊缺少有經驗的朝鮮問題專家，也會增加“金特會”的不確定性。在蒂勒森被解雇之前，美國朝鮮問題特別代表尹汝尚已經宣布辭職。美國國務院目前仍未委任駐首爾常駐大使，也未任命東亞與太平洋事務助理國務卿。

前美國駐韓大使候選人車維德表示，如果特朗普對金正恩愿意提出的條件不滿意，戰爭風險將會加大。朝鮮將原子武器視為抵御美國入侵的底牌，并且一直希望美國將其作為核國家對待。

車維德在3月11日寫道：“首腦級別的談判失敗，將導致各方沒有任何外交回旋余地。”車維德在2004年至2007年期間曾擔任朝鮮問題多方會談的美國代表團副團長。

多條溝通渠道

上周一，對于蒂勒森被解雇一事，韓國方面反應平淡。韓國表示韓美之間有多個溝通渠道。與此同時，韓國外交部長康京和仍計劃在本周出訪美國。原訪問計劃中包括一次與蒂勒森的會面。

要求匿名的多位韓國官員表示，他們認為蓬佩奧接任國務卿，只是特朗普在提拔他所信任的人，并不代表美國將對朝鮮采取更強硬的立場。

盡管如此，韓國方面的擔憂仍在日益增多。

上周三，韓國世宗研究院（Sejong Institute）的研究員樸志光在一篇報告中寫道：“特朗普對于此次會談的態度，與韓國政府對美朝對話的預期不同，特朗普可能將其視為采取軍事行動之前的最后一次外交努力。韓國迫切希望確定蒂勒森離職的影響，以便于采取恰當的應對措施。”

前國會議員蓬佩奧在去年加入中央情報局。在去年七月份召開的一次安全論壇上，蓬佩奧稱朝鮮問題是特朗普最關注的問題。

他表示：“半島無核化和消除核武器當然是好事，但現在控制核武器的人才是最危險的。所以從美國政府的角度講，最重要的事是將武器和控制人分開。”

金正恩計劃首先與韓國總統文在寅舉行一次首腦會議。文在寅一直反對對朝鮮采取軍事行動。但隨著蒂勒森的離開，特朗普政府中支持這種觀點的人可能會越來越少。

堪培拉澳大利亞戰略政策研究所（Australian Strategic Policy Institute）的資深分析師馬爾科姆·戴維斯表示：“蒂勒森和馬蒂斯為特朗普提供了看待世界的不同視角，可以有效調和特朗普的立場。而白宮內部的鷹派增多，自然會帶來風險。”（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓?

President Donald Trump’s firing of his top diplomat raises the stakes even further for his proposed summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In the months before his ouster, Rex Tillerson bumped heads with the president over whether to talk to North Korea — and wasn’t consulted before Trump agreed to meet Kim. Mike Pompeo, the hawkish CIA chief nominated to replace him as secretary of state, has defended Trump’s snap decision on the talks.

The stakes are incredibly high for any Trump-Kim meeting, which would be the first for a sitting U.S. president. The meeting may go well, and set the stage for further talks. Or the leaders may clash and revert to threats to annihilate each other’s country.

While Tillerson already appeared on the outer before his firing, Pompeo could amplify Trump’s desire to rely on his own instincts, and that’s a concern for North Korea watchers. Along with Defense Secretary James Mattis, Tillerson served as a voice for moderation as Trump repeatedly warned of military action to stop Kim’s nuclear weapons development.

A meeting with Kim would be a complex negotiation in which “you need to know the last step before you take the first one,” said John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at Harvard Kennedy School. “Those years of on-and-off negotiations were like climbing peaks and then sliding down the other side,” Park said. “The announced Trump-Kim meeting in May is a very high peak. If it fails, we crash.”

Trump accepted the invitation based on a briefing from South Korean officials without seeing anything in writing. In one of his last official remarks, Tillerson said that North Korea hadn’t even been in touch with the U.S. to sort out the details.

If a meeting materializes, the risk of miscalculation is high. North Korea has yet to confirm that it’s willing to give up its nuclear weapons. That was a crucial point conveyed to Trump by South Korean envoys who recently met with Kim.

“Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze,” Trump tweeted on March 9.

Adding to the uncertainty is the lack of experienced North Korea hands in Trump’s circle. Before Tillerson’s ouster, Joseph Yun, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, announced he was stepping down. The State Department doesn’t have a permanent ambassador in Seoul, or a confirmed assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

Victor Cha, once a candidate for ambassador to South Korea, said the risk of war would grow if Trump ends up disappointed over what Kim is willing to offer. North Korea sees atomic weapons as essential to deter a U.S. invasion, and has sought to be treated as a nuclear power.

“Failed negotiations at the summit level leave all parties with no other recourse for diplomacy,” Cha, deputy head of the U.S. delegation at multi country talks on North Korea from 2004 to 2007, wrote on March 11.

Multiple Channels

South Korea on Monday had a muted response to Tillerson’s firing, saying it has multiple channels of communication with the U.S., while Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha still plans a trip to the U.S. this week that initially included a meeting with Tillerson.

South Korean officials who asked not to be identified said they assessed Pompeo’s promotion more as a move by Trump to put in someone he trusts, rather than a shift to a harder line on North Korea.

Still, concerns in South Korea are growing.

“Unlike the South Korean government’s blueprint for the U.S.-North Korea dialogue, it could be that Trump is regarding this talk as the last diplomatic attempt before carrying out a military action,” Park Jee-kwang, a research associate at the Sejong Institute, said in a report Wednesday. “South Korea is in a desperate position to find out what Tillerson’s departure implies and come up with appropriate measures.”

Pompeo is a former member of Congress who joined the CIA last year. At a security forum last July, Pompeo said North Korea is at the front of Trump’s mind.

“It would be a great thing to denuclearize the peninsula, to get those weapons off of that, but the thing that is most dangerous about it is the character who holds the control over them today,” Pompeo said. “From the administration’s perspective, the most important thing we can do is separate those two.”

Kim is scheduled to first have a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who opposes any military action against the regime. With Tillerson out, Moon may have fewer people within Trump’s administration who agree with his position.

“Tillerson along with Mattis provided a natural break to Trump by providing alternative perspectives on the world,” said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. “There is certainly the risk that there are more hawkish elements in the White House.”