原油供應創(chuàng)歷史記錄，能源價格卻再度高企，原因何在？

國際能源署于上周五發(fā)布的原油市場報告預測，能源價格可能很快就會上漲，但與“原油產量峰值”理論（原油產量很快將達到最大值然后開始回落）無關。

受一系列因素的影響，例如美國頁巖油的興起，以及利比亞和尼日利亞產量的增加，原油的整體供應量實際上已創(chuàng)歷史記錄，每日超過了一億桶。

其他一些因素則顯示原油價格應下跌：國際能源署將此前報告中對2018-2019原油需求增長的預測下調了10萬桶/天。而原油儲存量在2018年第二季度增長了50萬桶/天，國際能源署預測這一態(tài)勢將延續(xù)至第三季度，這意味著供應依然小幅領先需求。

但全球市場上的瓶頸，例如北美頁巖天然氣出口基礎設施的匱乏、貨幣波動、美國對伊朗的制裁以及貿易摩擦，都在推動能源成本的上升。

盡管印度政府已表示不會理會伊朗制裁，而且中國可能只會部分遵守，但伊朗原油產量自美國宣布制裁（11月4日生效）以來出現(xiàn)了巨大跌幅，約80萬桶/天。委內瑞拉正遭遇大規(guī)模通脹和政治動蕩，其原油產量也是越來越少。

正因為如此，盡管原油產量創(chuàng)下歷史新高，但布倫特原油期貨價格仍高于80美元/桶。國際能源署寫道：“我們認為，能源將回歸高價時代，原油、天然氣和煤的交易價格將創(chuàng)歷史新高，但這一現(xiàn)象將不利于全球經(jīng)濟的增長。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Energy prices may soon rise, but not for anything to do with Peak Oil—the theory that production will soon reach a peak and begin to fall—the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its Oil Market Report released last Friday.

Overall supply has actually grown to record highs of over 100 million barrels a day thanks to a mix of factors such as the American shale boom and more production in Libya and Nigeria.

Several other factors suggest that prices should fall: The EIA is revising its forecast demand growth for 2018 and 2019 downward by 100,000 barrels a day from its previous report. And stored oil grew by about 500,000 barrels a day in the second quarter of 2018—a growth the IEA estimates has continued in the third quarter—suggesting that supply is still somewhat ahead of demand.

But choke points in the global market—such as lagging infrastructure for exporting North America’s shale-derived natural gas, currency fluctuations, U.S. sanctions on Iran, and trade squabbles—threaten to make energy costlier.

While the Indian government has said it will not respect the Iran sanctions and China may only comply partway, Iran’s drop in production since the U.S. announced the sanctions (which take effect Nov. 4) has been huge: some 800,000 barrels a day. And Venezuela, in the midst of massive inflation and political instability, is producing less and less oil.

And so, despite record production, prices for Brent crude oil remain over $80 a barrel. The EIA writes, “our position is that expensive energy is back, with oil, gas and coal trading at multi-year highs, and it poses a threat to economic growth.”