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          專欄 - 蘋果2_0

          中國電信下周預售iPhone 4S

          Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年02月22日

          蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
          中國第三大運營商及最大的Wi-Fi網絡商——中國電信即將發布iPhone 4S。

          ????在上周舉辦的高盛技術大會(Goldman Sachs technology conference)上,蘋果(Apple)首席執行官蒂姆?庫克告訴聽眾:“我們非常、非常關注中國市場。”

          ????本周一,庫克所說的“關注”終于有了明顯的成果:中國電信(China Telecom)——中國第三大移動運營商、最大的Wi-Fi網絡商以及固網提供商(總用戶數為2.16億)宣布,將于3月9日正式發布iPhone 4S,并從下周開始接受預訂。

          ????這樁交易究竟有多大?為了給大家一個參照,我們先來看看下面的數據:上季度,美國電話電報公司(AT&T)售出了創紀錄的740萬部iPhone, Verizon和斯普林特(Sprint)的這一數字則分別是420萬和180萬。

          ????"We've been very, very focused on China," Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook told the audience at last week's Goldman Sachs technology conference.

          ????One result of that focus became clear on Monday, when China Telecom (CHA), China's No. 3 mobile carrier and No. 1 Wi-Fi and fixed-line provider (total subscribers: 216 million), announced that it will begin taking iPhone 4S preorders next week for sales starting March 9.

          ????How big a deal is this? To put it in perspective, AT&T (T) sold 7.4 million iPhones last quarter -- Apple's biggest ever -- Verizon (VZ) sold 4.2 million and Sprint (S) 1.8 million.

          ????截止今年1月,中國電信擁有3,870萬3G用戶,其中大約1,500萬屬于高端用戶,根據摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近發布的報告,這些人不但能夠輕松負擔iPhone費用,而且對iPhone極為熱衷。(見上圖)

          ????中國第二大運營商中國聯通(China Unicom)雖然擁有更多3G用戶(4,300萬),但其高端用戶數與中國電信大致相當。根據摩根士丹利分析師利凱蒂?休伯蒂發布的報告,五分之一的中國聯通用戶已經購買了iPhone。她預計這一比例最終會長至六成以上。

          ????不過,蘋果至今未能染指中國市場最大的蛋糕。中國移動(China Mobile)是世界最大的運營商,擁有超過6億用戶,與蘋果已進行了多年的談判。數以百萬計的中國移動用戶正在其過時的2G網絡中使用越獄版iPhone。不過,蘋果目前還無法正式開展在中國移動的銷售,除非它能為中國移動提供一款定制版的4G iPhone。

          ????休伯蒂預計,一旦蘋果完成定制工作——最早可能是今年第三季度,屆時iPhone在中國市場的年銷量或將猛增至4,000萬部。

          ????譯者:項航

          ????As of January, China Telecom had 38.7 million 3G subscribers, roughly 15 million of whom, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report, are so-called high-end users who could easily afford -- and are eager to buy -- an iPhone. (See charts.)

          ????China Unicom (CHU), the country's No. 2 carrier, has more 3G subscribers (43 million), but roughly the same number of high-end subscribers as China Telecom. According to Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, 20% of China Unicom's users have already bought iPhones, a share she expects to eventually grow to more than 60%.

          ????The big prize for Apple in China is still out of reach, however. China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest carrier with more than 600 million subscribers, has been in discussions with Apple for years, and millions of its customers are already using jailbroken iPhones on its older 2G network. But sales won't begin in earnest until Apple offers a 4G version of the iPhone that can run on China Mobile's broadband network.

          ????Huberty estimates that once that happens -- perhaps as early as this fall -- iPhone sales in China could quickly grow to 40 million a year.

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