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          專欄 - 蘋果2_0

          iPhone 5下周五登陸大陸市場

          Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年12月03日

          蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
          Wi-Fi版iPad mini和配備Retina顯示屏的第四代iPad將于12月7日星期五在中國上市,iPhone 5在中國的發售時間定于12月14日星期五。

          ????

          ????蘋果公司(Apple)剛剛宣布了新產品在中國上市的種類及發售時間,華爾街分析人士對此反應不一。

          ????主要觀點(刪去了令人不快的商標符號):

          ????Wi-Fi版iPad mini和配備Retina顯示屏的第四代iPad將于12月7日星期五在中國上市,iPhone 5在中國的發售時間定于12月14日星期五。iPad mini與配備Retina屏的第四代iPad目前已在42個國家和地區上市,iPhone 5已經在47個國家和地區上市,其中包括美國、澳大利亞、加拿大、法國、德國、日本和英國。

          ????分析人士第一時間作出了反應,下面是一部分節選:

          ????投資銀行Piper Jaffray的基尼·蒙斯特:iPhone在中國上市的時間略早于預期。“之前,我們預計這兩款產品將于本季度在中國上市,iPad的上市時間與我們之前的預測基本一致,而iPhone 5的上市日期則比我們預計的時間提前了一周左右。最主要的是,我們曾預測iPhone在12月份將取得4,500萬臺的銷量,iPhone 5在中國上市的消息讓我們對之前的預測更有信心。”

          ????投資公司Topeka的布萊恩·懷特:期待中國在蛇年“吞”下蘋果。“之前我們曾預測iPhone 5將于12月份在中國上市,但我們并未想過iPad mini和第四代iPad也會在今年登陸中國。此外,目前iPad已經在42個國家和地區開賣,而iPhone 5正式上市的時間雖然晚于預期,卻已經在47個國家上市,這讓我們非常吃驚。”

          ????國際戰略投資集團(ISI)的布萊恩·馬紹爾:對蘋果繼續向中國滲透的看法。“我們仍然認為,截至12月底,iPhone 5將在約100個國家和240家運營商全面鋪開(例如,其全部運營商合作伙伴)。從技術角度來看,iPhone 5具有重要意義,因為這是首款同時支持中國三大運營商網絡(中國移動、中國聯通和中國電信)的iPhone手機。不過,中國移動正式發售iPhone的時間目前仍是個迷。我們的預測是在2013年下半年。”

          ????敬請期待更多分析。

          ????譯者:劉進龍/汪皓

          ????There was mixed reaction on Wall Street to Apple's (AAPL)?announcement?about which new products are headed to China and when they might get there.

          ????The key paragraph (with irritating trademark symbols stripped out):

          ????The Wi-Fi versions of iPad mini and fourth generation iPad with Retina display will be available in China on Friday, December 7, and iPhone 5 will be available on Friday, December 14. iPad mini and the new fourth generation iPad with Retina display are currently available in 42 countries, and iPhone 5 is available in 47 countries, including the US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK.

          ????Excerpts from the early analyst's reactions:

          ????Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: China iPhone Launch Slightly Earlier Than Expected.?"We had previously expected both products to go on sale in China during the quarter and while the iPad timing is generally in-line with our prior thinking, the iPhone 5 will be available about a week earlier than we expected. The bottom line is that the China iPhone 5 announcement gives us slightly greater confidence in our 45 million unit iPhone estimate for December."

          ????Topeka's Brian White: During the Year of the Snake, Expect China to Devour the Apple."Although we expected the iPhone 5 to arrive in China in December, we were not expecting the iPad mini and fourth generation iPad to be launched in the country this year. Also, we were surprised on the upside by the fact the new iPads are now in 42 countries, while the iPhone 5 rollout seems a bit slower than expected and in 47 countries."

          ????ISI's Brian Marshall:?Quick Thoughts on AAPL's continued penetration of China.?"We continue to expect the iPhone 5 will be in ~100 countries and ~240 carriers by the end of Dec (e.g., nearly 100% of their total carrier partner base).?From a technology perspective, the iPhone 5 is significant as it is the first iPhone capable of running on all 3 major carrier networks in China (e.g.,?CHL,?CHU,?CHA.)?Big question remains however…when will China Mobile (CHL, world's largest carrier with ~700 million wireless subs) start selling the iPhone? Our best guess is 2H13."

          ????More as they come in.

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