創(chuàng)可貼治不了歐洲債務(wù)之傷

????歐洲中央銀行（ European Central Bank）干預(yù)西班牙和意大利債務(wù)市場的措施，對于席卷整個歐洲大陸的危機(jī)來說并不是什么靈丹妙藥。盡管這一措施使歐洲暫時遠(yuǎn)離了危險，但這只不過是權(quán)宜之計，目的是讓歐元區(qū)各國政府有時間制定解決方案，應(yīng)對日益嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)危機(jī)。歐元區(qū)核心成員國政府表示，他們將致力于維護(hù)貨幣聯(lián)盟的團(tuán)結(jié)，但德國的政治阻力和法國的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題（傳言可能調(diào)低其債務(wù)評級），使歐洲很難拼湊出一套行之有效的長期解決方案，把歐洲從當(dāng)前的債務(wù)危機(jī)泥潭中拯救出來。

????日前，歐洲央行決定在二級市場大量買進(jìn)無人問津的意大利和西班牙債券，正式成為歐洲所有國家的最終貸款人。上周，由于擔(dān)心這兩個國家的國債可能出現(xiàn)違約，因此投資基金紛紛撤離，導(dǎo)致這兩國國債收益率飆升。

????但歐洲央行的措施成功穩(wěn)定了市場的情緒，在早間交易時，意大利和西班牙的國債收益率下降了70到80個基準(zhǔn)點。歐洲央行稱，這一措施只是權(quán)宜之計，并敦促歐元區(qū)各國政府協(xié)同行動，同意對歐洲金融穩(wěn)定機(jī)構(gòu)（EFSF）的改革方案，即允許這家去年成立的特殊目的公司在二級市場購買國債。

????歐元區(qū)各國政府已經(jīng)原則上同意，允許EFSF進(jìn)入二級市場，但救助基金擴(kuò)張的授權(quán)必須獲得每一個歐元區(qū)成員國議會的批準(zhǔn)。而這可能需要數(shù)月時間——但歐洲根本等不了這么久。因此，歐洲央行的措施被認(rèn)為是一種過渡性貸款，使成員國可以有足夠的時間通過必要的改革議案。

????歐洲央行表示，在西班牙和意大利兩國政府“通過新措施，并決定對財政和結(jié)構(gòu)政策領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行改革后”，歐洲央行最終決定干預(yù)西班牙和意大利市場。上周晚些時候，意大利政府表示，將加快執(zhí)行計劃中的預(yù)算措施，希望在2013年之前實現(xiàn)預(yù)算平衡，而西班牙則在其自治區(qū)內(nèi)對預(yù)算進(jìn)行了微調(diào)。歐洲央行認(rèn)為，歐洲面臨的麻煩是財政危機(jī)，而不是貨幣危機(jī)，除非這兩國政府對預(yù)算進(jìn)行大刀闊斧的改革，否則歐洲央行不會介入。

信心危機(jī)

????歐洲央行行長讓?克洛德?特里謝做出如此巨大的承諾，實際上是在拿歐元區(qū)的未來賭博。歐洲央行無法一直支持西班牙和意大利的債務(wù)市場——因為他們的規(guī)模過于龐大。但特里謝卻斷言，這兩個原先流動性正常的債務(wù)市場缺乏流動性只是臨時現(xiàn)象，歐洲央行的措施將幫助這兩個市場迅速將投資者吸引回來。日前，國債收益率的下降便表明市場已經(jīng)趨于穩(wěn)定，只是對市場的信心還需要重建。

????荷蘭一家著名的資產(chǎn)管理公司的投資組合經(jīng)理稱：“市場并未陷入恐慌，只是市場情緒受到挫折而已。”該投資組合經(jīng)理不愿透露自己的身份，因為他并未獲得授權(quán)接受媒體采訪。“歐洲央行的措施還不足以打消我們對市場安全性的疑慮，使我們安心地重返市場？目前采取的措施象征性意義更大，但市場需要實實在在的行動。”

????歐洲央行認(rèn)為，如果歐元區(qū)各國政府最終能夠投票通過擴(kuò)大EFSF緊急救助基金的授權(quán)，并允許其在二級市場購買國債，那時候，就會有“實實在在的行動”。但為了保證效率，EFSF需要增加可用于該基金的資金數(shù)量。目前，EFSF的資金數(shù)量僅為4,400億歐元。如果僅用于支撐希臘和葡萄牙的債務(wù)市場，這筆資金還算充足，但EFSF要想成為西班牙和意大利這些國家的最終貸款人，這點資金卻只能算杯水車薪。例如，到明年年底，西班牙和意大利需要融資8,400億歐元——幾乎相當(dāng)于整個基金的兩倍。

????擴(kuò)大基金的授權(quán)看來已經(jīng)是板上釘釘，但擴(kuò)大它的規(guī)模才是真正的難題。EFSF任何程度的擴(kuò)大，首先都會對該基金背后的歐元區(qū)核心成員國的信用評級造成負(fù)面的影響。法國目前的財政狀況危機(jī)重重，因此它將面臨最大的風(fēng)險。歐洲交易市場內(nèi)部傳言稱，如果該基金規(guī)模擴(kuò)大，法國將成為下一個喪失3A信用評級的國家。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾公司（S&P）負(fù)責(zé)歐洲市場的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在接受《回聲報》（Les Echoes）采訪時表示，法國的債務(wù)評級預(yù)期非常穩(wěn)定，但當(dāng)被問及今年12月份法國信用評級接受復(fù)核時是否會有所變化，他卻閃爍其詞。如果讓法國在為EFSF出資和保持3A評級之間做出選擇，它會如何抉擇，目前尚無法確定。

????此外，德國對于擴(kuò)大EFSF的規(guī)模似乎興致不高。德國是上周投票反對歐洲央行進(jìn)入二級市場的幾個國家之一。EFSF任何程度的擴(kuò)張，都需要德國的支持，但鑒于當(dāng)前國內(nèi)的政治局勢，想獲得德國的支持似乎不太可能。

????如果EFSF維持目前的規(guī)模，歐洲央行將不得不無限期地支撐意大利和西班牙債務(wù)市場。特里謝宣稱不會出現(xiàn)那種結(jié)果，但EFSF如何擴(kuò)大規(guī)模，目前還不明朗。只有通過真正行之有效的解決方案并取得實實在在的效果，才能重塑投資者的信心，而歐洲央行目前的措施在短期內(nèi)或許會有所幫助，但長期來看，這項措施很難將歐洲帶回正軌。

????（翻譯 劉進(jìn)龍）

????The European Central Bank's intervention in the Spanish and Italian debt markets is no panacea for the troubles rocking the continent. While the move has brought Europe back from the brink, it is only a temporary measure to allow eurozone governments to come up with a solution to its crushing debt crisis. The core eurozone governments say they are committed to keeping the monetary union together, but political resistance in Germany and economic troubles in France (with talk of a possible downgrade of its debt), will make it difficult for Europe to put together a viable long-term solution to dig itself out of its current debt crisis.

????The ECB officially became the lender of last resort to all of Europe this morning as it moved to buy up unwanted Italian and Spanish bonds in the secondary market. Concern that the two nations could default on their debt caused yields to skyrocket last week as investment funds stepped out of the market.

????But the ECB's actions successfully calmed the markets down, sending bond yields on the two nation's sovereign debt down a significant 70 to 80 basis points in early morning trading. The ECB said the measure was temporary and urged the eurozone governments to get their act together and pass changes to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which would allow the special purpose vehicle set up last year to buy bonds in the secondary market.

????Eurozone governments have already agreed in principal to allow the EFSF to enter the secondary markets, but the expansion of the rescue fund's mandate requires the approval of each of the eurozone's member parliaments. That would take months – time Europe did not have. The ECB's move is therefore being seen as a sort of bridge loan to allow time for the member countries to pass the necessary changes.

????The ECB said it finally intervened in the Spanish and Italian markets after the two governments "passed new measures and reforms in the areas of fiscal and structural policies." The Italians said late last week that they would accelerate proposed budget measures to meet a balanced budget by 2013, while the Spanish made some budgetary tweaks within its autonomous regions. The ECB views the troubles affecting Europe to be a fiscal crisis, not a monetary one, so it needed to see that the two nations were making significant changes to their budgets before intervening.

Crisis of confidence

????Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the ECB, is effectively gambling with the eurozone's future by taking on this huge commitment. The central bank cannot continually support the debt markets of Spain and Italy forever - they are simply too big. But Trichet is betting that the lack of liquidity in these two normally liquid debt markets is just a temporary phenomenon, and that the ECB's actions would help bring investors back to the table in short order. The decrease in yields today is a sign that the market is calming down, but confidence remains in doubt.

????"There is no panic here, just frustration," says a portfolio manager at a leading Dutch asset manager, who wished to not be identified because he is not authorized to speak with the media. "The actions from the ECB are not enough to reassure us that it is safe to go back into the markets – today's move is more symbolic, real action is needed."

????The ECB believes that 'real action' will come when the eurozone government eventually votes to expand the mandate of the EFSF bailout fund to allow it to buy sovereign debt in the secondary markets. But to do that effectively, the EFSF will need to increase the amount of money it can spend in the fund. Right now it is locked at 440 billion euros. That might be enough to support the debt markets of Greece and Portugal, but it is not enough to be a lender of last resort to countries like Spain and Italy. For example, Spain and Italy need to raise 840 billion euros through the end of next year – almost double the entire fund's size.

????While expanding the fund's mandate seems to be a done deal, expanding its size is in real doubt. Any further increase in the EFSF could begin to negatively impact the credit ratings of the core members backing the fund. France is the most at risk given its precarious fiscal situation. There is talk on European trading desks today that it would be the next country to lose its triple-A credit rating if the fund expands. While S&P chief economist for Europe told Les Echoes that France's debt rating outlook was stable, he dodged any questions as to whether the country's rating might be changed when it is up for review in December. It is unclear what the French will do if they were given a choice between funding the EFSF or keeping their triple-A rating.

????Furthermore, Germany doesn't seem too keen on expanding the size of the EFSF. They were one of the few countries last week that voted against the ECB entering the secondary markets. Any expansion of the EFSF will need German backing and it appears unlikely to happen given the current political situation inside the country.

????If the EFSF stays small, the ECB will be forced to backstop the Italian and Spanish debt markets indefinitely. Trichet is betting it won't come to that point, but it is hard to see how the EFSF will be expanded at this point. Confidence will only return when investors see real progress toward a viable solution, and today's move by the ECB, while helpful in the short term, is not the long term solution needed to get Europe back on track.