德國化解歐元危機的信心從何而來

????關于歐元危機，要聽大實話還得看看世界經濟論壇（World Economic Forum）的印度年會！

????周一，我在孟買主持了一個小組討論，探討發展中國家間貿易量的增長。與會者表面上洋溢著一派樂觀，但我卻試著讓討論增加點火藥味。

????我說，我是一個天生的悲觀主義者。為討論計，讓我們為歐洲假設一個最糟情景或近乎最糟的情景。我不信歐元區能維持現狀，繼續以目前的形式存在下去。我認為歐洲將進入深度衰退，而不是短時的、淺層次衰退。果真如此，它將會對印度、中國以及其他所有發展中國家，特別是與中印這兩個發展中大國的貿易量增長迅速的非洲國家，產生怎樣的影響？

????我忘了與會者在小組會上是怎么回答的，好像沒什么讓人印象深刻的。真正有意思的是后來發生的事情，在一次茶歇中我和出席會議的兩位德國高管展開了討論。

????參加這類會議，往往是走廊里的聊天要遠比正式討論有趣得多。之所以這樣，部分原因是因為商界人士或政客們往往認為走廊里的談話不會見諸報端, 與記者的談話尤其是這樣。因此，我在此也得遵守這個規矩。我能說的是當時的這兩位高管，一位是顧問，另一位是我得稱之為準官方德國機構的負責人。

????兩位仁兄對我當日的悲觀言論略感不快?！澳悴恢绬?？”這兩人中的一個說，“我們（德國）救助希臘的成本遠低于1989年柏林墻倒塌后重新統一東德的成本?！?/p>

????我差點被羊角面包噎住了。是的，我答道，我知道這一點。90年代中期，我就住在柏林，在那兒當記者。當年的經歷對德國來說是個(在經濟意義上)很痛苦的過程。但有一個問題，我委婉地問道，德國人接納冷戰期間被孤立和日漸貧困的同胞是美夢成真，不管付出的代價有多么沉重。但是，讓德國人掏錢救助希臘對普通德國人可能是個噩夢，難道不是這樣嗎？

????他擺了擺手。不，不，他說，這事兒得管。他說，德國人知道歐元區成員的身份給他們帶來了多少好處。如果沒有這個身份，這位先生說，德國馬克的匯率將比歐元高出50%或75%?！暗聡I將會從地圖上被抹去?！?/p>

????Leave it to the World Economic Forum's annual India conference to reveal some home truths about...the euro crisis.

????I was moderating a panel discussion here in Mumbai yesterday on the increasing amount of trade within the developing world, and amid an unrelenting stream of on-the-record optimism from the various panelists, I tried to spark things up a bit.

????Look, I said, I'm a born pessimist. For the sake of argument, let's assume a worst case or nearly worst-case scenario for Europe. I don't believe the euro zone can survive in its current form, and I think Europe is in for a deep recession, not a short shallow one. What would the impact of that be on India, China, and all the other developing countries, particularly in Africa, whose trade is rapidly expanding with developing world's two giants?

????Forget what the response on the panel was. It was unremarkable. What's interesting is what happened later, during a coffee break, when I got into a discussion with two senior German executives attending the meeting.

????The nature of these meetings is that the hallway chatter is always more interesting that the formal program. Part of the reason why is that, particularly when talking to journalists, the businesspeople or politicians tend to regard those conversations as off the record. So I'll abide by that here. One of the German execs was a consultant, and the other headed what I'll call a quasi-official German organization.

????They were slightly irritated by the pessimism I'd expressed earlier in the day. "Don't you realize," one of them said, "that the cost to us (Germany) of bailing out Greece is far less than it cost us to reintegrate East Germany after the wall came down in 1989?"

????I almost choked on my croissant. Yes, I replied, I am aware of that. I lived and worked in Berlin as a journalist in the mid 1990s, when that very painful (economically speaking) process was taking place in Germany. But doesn't that, I said politely, rather beg the question: Germany integrating their brethren, who'd been isolated and impoverished during the cold war, was a dream come true, whatever the cost. Germans, on the other hand paying to bail out Greece is, to average German, rather the opposite of a dream come true, is it not?

????He waved me off. No no, he said, it will be taken care of. The Germans, he said, understood how beneficial to them membership in the euro zone has been. Without it, the gentleman said, the value of the Deutschemark would be 50% or 75% higher than it is under the euro. "German industry would be wiped off the map."