四大當家投資品種新年行情預測大碰撞

美國樓市：看跌

????不是所有預測都這樣樂觀。很多經濟學家估計2012年的美國樓市相比前幾年的低迷走勢不會有太大改觀。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）首席經濟學家馬克?贊迪預計，住房價格將繼續下跌4%至5%。而德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的分析師們預計，全美平均房價“可能繼續下滑”，因為市場需要更多時間來消化過多的空屋庫存，目前空屋庫存量仍比歷史水平多出約100萬套。

????另外，還有所謂的“影子庫存”，即仍處于止贖流程、尚未進入樓市的房屋。尚不確定這部分庫存會給樓市帶來怎樣的影響，但很多人擔心它會進一步壓低房價，推遲樓市的復蘇。

U.S. Housing: Bear

????Not every forecast is so rosy. Plenty of economists are betting that 2012's housing market won't be much different than the lackluster market of previous years. Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi says he expects home prices to fall another 4% to 5%. And analysts at Deutsche Bank forecast that national home prices on average will "likely drift still slower," as the market needs more time to run off the excess stock of vacant homes, which remains about one million units above historical trends.

????And then there's the so-called "shadow inventory," or the onslaught of homes that are still going through the foreclosure process and haven't made their way into the housing market. It's uncertain what the implications are for the housing market, but many worry it could further depress prices and prolong a recovery.