中國(guó)躲不過(guò)歐債危機(jī)

????“中國(guó)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是隨著2012年推進(jìn)，外部因素的負(fù)面效應(yīng)將加大，”《如何在全球金融危機(jī)后維持中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)》（Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis）一書(shū)的作者、彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（The Peterson Institute for International Economics）高級(jí)研究員尼古拉斯?拉迪表示。他說(shuō)，出口增速放緩尤其令人擔(dān)憂，特別是鑒于中國(guó)增速已連續(xù)四個(gè)季度下滑。歐洲（中國(guó)的一個(gè)主要市場(chǎng)）今年可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)期以及這對(duì)全球其他地區(qū)帶來(lái)的廣泛影響，可能使中國(guó)出口增速再降一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

????眼下，似乎中國(guó)能做的似乎也有這么多了。中國(guó)政府也不太容易再出臺(tái)一個(gè)大規(guī)模的刺激計(jì)劃。正如《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（the Wall Street Journal）的約瑟夫?斯登伯格所指，很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家估計(jì)上一次經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃時(shí)獲批的很多貸款將出現(xiàn)壞賬。

????因此，雖然中國(guó)曾奇跡般地躲過(guò)了幾場(chǎng)風(fēng)暴，但這一次的歐債危機(jī)中國(guó)或許在劫難逃。

????"The risk for China is that the external factors would be more of a drag as we move in 2012," says Nicholas Lardy, author of Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis and senior fellow at The Peterson Institute for International Economics. Lardy says the slowdown in exports is particularly worrisome, given that China's growth has been slowing down for the past four consecutive quarters. Expectations this year of a recession in Europe – one of China's key markets – and its possibly wider impact on the rest of the world could knock off another percentage point in exports.

????At this point, it seems China can only do so much. It likely won't be very easy for officials to dole out another massive stimulus plan. This comes, as Joseph Sternberg of the Wall Street Journal notes, as many economists expect some large portion of loans approved as part of the last package to go sour.

????So while it seems China has miraculously dodged more than a few headwinds, the crisis in Europe could be the malaise it can't escape.