美股風向標：第一財報季四大看點

????巴特斯補充道，消費品公司特別容易受到沖擊，如耐克（Nike）、Cheerios麥圈和Yoplait酸奶的生產廠家通用磨坊（General Mills）以及Carnival的郵輪航線等。

????雖然美國航空業去年在油價飆升背景下努力實現了盈利，但今年機票價格和各種附加費上漲可能仍不足以成為盈利保障。國際航空運輸協會（International Air Transport Association）3月份的報告指出，燃料成本可能導致全球航空業利潤下降62%，降幅大于該協會5個月前做出的預測。它預計，航空業凈利潤將從去年的79億美元降至30億美元。

歐元匯率

????近月來歐債危機持續推動美元對歐元走強。今年年初，歐元平均降至約1.31美元，低于去年差不多同期的1.37美元。

????由于有幾家美國公司的年營收大部分來自國際市場，匯率波動可能導致數百萬美元的盈利波動。對于那些在歐洲有大幅銷售額的公司，美元對歐元走強自然會導致凈利潤走低。

????以麥當勞（McDonald's）為例。這家總部位于芝加哥西郊橡溪鎮的快餐連鎖企業在經濟衰退和隨后的歲月中幾乎沒有受到大的打擊。但風向即將逆轉。去年，麥當勞在歐洲實現營收109億美元，占總營收的40%。匯兌收益將其每股收益提升了19美分，但今年匯兌因素可能對這家公司造成不利影響。麥當勞在1月份的投資者電話會議中警告稱，匯兌因素（主要是歐元）可能拉低收益，導致2012年每股收益減少16-18美分。

????麥當勞預計將于4月20日發布財報。

????譯者：老榆木

????Butters adds that consumer-focused companies, such as Nike (NKE), General Mills (GIS), maker of Cheerios and Yoplait yogurt, as well as Carnival (CCL) cruise lines, are especially vulnerable.

????And while the U.S. airline industry managed to turn profits amid soaring fuel prices last year, raising ticket prices and fees might not help cushion margins this year. Fuel costs could cause profits across the world's airline industry to plunge 62%, according to the International Air Transport Association's March report. That's a bigger drop than the trade group predicted five months ago. It forecasts that carriers' net profit could fall to $3 billion in 2012 from $7.9 billion last year.

The power of the euro

????In recent months, Europe's ongoing debt crisis has helped strengthen the U.S. dollar against a weakening euro. At the start of this year, the euro on average weakened to about $1.31, compared with $1.37 around the same period last year.

????Because several U.S. companies derive a majority of annual revenues from international markets, swings in exchange rates can translate to millions of dollars in earnings. And for companies with big sales in Europe, a stronger greenback relative to the euro could certainly slow earnings.

????Take McDonald's (MCD). It rode out the recession and the months following almost unscathed. But headwinds are on the horizon. Last year, the Oak Brook-based restaurant chain generated $10.9 billion or 40% of its revenue in Europe. Foreign exchange boosted its earnings by 19 cents per share, but that will likely work against the company this year. During a call with investors in January, the company warned that foreign currency conversion, primarily driven by the euro, could drag down per-share earnings by 16 to 18 cents in 2012.

????McDonald's is expected to report earnings on April 20.