經濟學界兩大泰斗激辯歐元未來

????但拜歐元所賜，南部國家和愛爾蘭的融資利率與德國一樣。因此，他們的融資利率可能與房價或不斷上漲的產品價格的漲幅一致、甚至更低。正是這樣無度的借款，而且融資利率往往低于通脹率，才推動了工資飆升。廉價融資對政府也有極大的誘惑力，使得他們能不斷上調低效率的國家控股公司中的工資水平，結果進一步傷害了生產率。從2000年到2008年，意大利、西班牙、希臘和葡萄牙的政府支出占國民收入的比率平均上升了3.8個百分點，愛爾蘭是12個百分點。梅爾策稱：“政府已經習慣了12%的融資利率，但是突然間可以拿到3%或4%的利率，這種誘惑實在難以抵制。”

????而在德國，利率高于通脹率，政府和消費者都沒有過度借貸的動力。同期，德國政府支出占國民收入的比率事實上還下降了1個百分點。

????那么，梅爾策的解決之道是什么?他認為，只有兩種可能的選擇，艱難降薪或本幣貶值，后者至少會暫時分解歐元。他估計第一種選擇行不通。“德國人說，弱國需要緊縮，”梅爾策稱。“但希臘已經歷了五年的緩慢增長，甚至是零增長。他們是建議再來五年嗎？這些國家的人們肯定不干。因為它無異于要求再來一場大蕭條。”

????梅爾策呼吁南部國家，加上愛爾蘭，可能還有法國，加入另一個“軟歐元”區。“軟歐元相比德國和北部國家現行的歐元可以進行幣值下浮，”他說。“這將恢復那些增長停滯國家的競爭力。”梅爾策說，這是讓歐元以某種形式繼續存在的唯一辦法：“經濟增長時，更容易進行改革。”在梅爾策的分析中，南部國家可以晚些時候再加入“硬”歐元，一直等到他們改革了勞動力市場后再加入。

????兩位泰斗誰的分析更有說服力？梅爾策的說法讓人頻頻點頭，從根本上也更讓人信服。問題的核心確實是競爭力因素。“結構問題，僵化的勞動力市場，在歐元時代并未發生改變，”另一位杰出的經濟學家、卡內基國際和平研究院（Carnegie Endowment）的尤里?達杜什表示。“歐元使（這些國家）無法通過貶值打破僵化，同時還導致了競爭力的喪失。”確實，在歐元引入前，幾十年來歐洲從來沒有出現過主權債務危機。本幣貶值是意大利、西班牙提升競爭力的工具。歐元令這一工具喪失，從而引發了歷史性的危機。

????但是梅爾策的解決方案也存在一個問題：南部國家真的會進行必要的改革，然后在未來一些年里再重新加入歐元嗎？如果是，蒙代爾的夢想或許最終還是可以實現。如果不是，他們保留軟歐元（不管最終叫什么名字）的話日子可能更好過一些。

????眼下，辛納屈的另一首歌——《夢想留給未來》（Put Your Dreams Away (for Another Day)）或許更適合蒙代爾來演唱。

????譯者：早稻米

????But the southern countries and Ireland could borrow at the same rates as Germany, courtesy of the euro. Hence, they could load on debt at rates the same, or even lower, than the appreciation in their homes or ever-rising prices of their products. It was that excessive borrowing, frequently at costs lower than inflation, that enabled wages to explode. Cheap borrowing also proved powerfully seductive to governments, allowing them to keep raising pay in inefficient, state-controlled companies, further hitting productivity. From 2000 to 2008, government spending as a share of national income grew by an average of 3.8 percentage points in Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, and 12 points in Ireland. Says Meltzer: "It doesn't help when the government is used to borrowing at 12% and suddenly it can borrow at 3% or 4%."

????In Germany, where interest rates dwarfed inflation, giving neither the government nor consumers an incentive to borrow excessively, state spending actually dropped one point over the same period.

????So what's Meltzer's solution? He sees only two possibilities, a policy of grinding wage reductions, or devaluation that would at least temporarily dismantle the euro. The first option, he reckons, won't work. "The Germans say the weaker countries need austerity," says Meltzer. "But Greece has gone through five years of slow or no growth. Are they recommending five more years? The people of these countries won't accept it. They're asking for another Great Depression."

????Instead, Meltzer is advocating that southern countries, plus Ireland and perhaps France, join a separate, "soft-euro" area. "The soft euro would float down in value versus the current euro in Germany and the northern countries," he says. "That would restore the competitiveness of the nations that can't grow today." For Meltzer, it's the only way to keep the euro in any form. "It's easier to make reforms when the economies are growing," he adds. In Meltzer's scenario, the southern countries could rejoin the "hard" euro later, once they've reformed their labor markets.

????Which of these two legends makes the stronger case? The nod must go to Meltzer. The reason is fundamental. The heart of the problem is indeed the competitiveness issue. "The structural problems, the rigidity of the labor markets, didn't change in the euro era," says another outstanding economist, Uri Dadush of the Carnegie Endowment. "The euro just made it impossible to deal with the rigidities by devaluing. That robbed countries of their competitiveness." Indeed, Europe never had a sovereign debt crisis in the decades before the euro was introduced. The tool of devaluation was a sign of weakness in an Italy or Spain, but it's the euro, by removing that tool, that's caused an historic upheaval.

????The question surrounding Meltzer's solution in whether the southern countries will actually make the reforms necessary to rejoin the euro in years to come. If so, Mundell's dream might eventually materialize. If not, they're far better off keeping the soft euro, whatever name is finally chosen.

????Another Sinatra tune might be a better refrain for Mundell, "Put Your Dreams Away (for Another Day)."