歐洲將拉響新的警報

????要在重點地區計劃（包括為貨幣聯盟補充更強大的財政和銀行聯盟以及更緊密的政治一體化）上獲得進展、確保幾個具體成員國形成更好的宏觀經濟/結構政策組合，相關方面需要重新做出努力。

????我們覺得歐洲委員會的預測仍然過于樂觀，意味著采取行動的緊迫性更大。例如，太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）預計歐元區經濟今年可能萎縮1-1.5%，而不是歐洲委員會預測的僅萎縮0.6%。

????重要的是，政界應該利用當前歐洲央行的橋梁作用，現在就采取行動，讓公民對經濟的顯著好轉抱有更大希望。否則，政策性挑戰將與日俱增，歐元區將面臨越來越多的涉及經濟、金融、政治和社會因素的破壞性惡性循環。

????如果歐洲的政治家們要等到出現更深的危機才去利用歐洲央行提供的寶貴機會，那將是一個極大的恥辱，而且會是悲劇性的恥辱。

????穆罕默德?埃爾-埃利安是太平洋投資管理公司首席執行官兼聯席首席投資官。他還是美國全球發展署的負責人。（財富中文網）

????譯者：默默

????A renewed effort is needed to make progress on key regional initiatives (including supplementing monetary union with greater fiscal and banking union and closer political integration) and in ensuring a better macro-economic/structural policy mix in several individual countries.

????This urgent call for action is amplified by what we feel are still overly optimistic EC projections. For example, PIMCO projects the eurozone could contract by 1 – 1.5% this year rather than the EC's 0.6%.

????It is essential that politicians take advantage of the current ECB bridge, acting now to provide citizens with greater hope of a significant turnaround. Absent that, policy challenges will mount, and the eurozone will face a growing number of disruptive feedback loops involving economic, financial, political and social factors.

????It would be a great shame – indeed tragic – if European politicians were to wait for a deeper crisis in order to make use of the valuable opportunity afforded to them by the ECB.

????Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO. He also heads the U.S. global development council.