巴菲特股東大會見聞：蘋果重新受到追捧

????謹慎對待美國股市，尤其是美國債市。歐洲市場頗具投資價值。伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）的股票不再是一筆劃算的買賣，但是蘋果公司（Apple）的股票也許可以買進了。這是今年在奧馬哈舉行的伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司年度股東大會上投資者的普遍看法。

????投資者對資本市場的感覺與當地天氣如出一轍，陰雨綿綿且寒冷異常。但是這并沒有阻止包括許多專業人士在內的萬千投資者在這個周末涌入奧馬哈，聆聽沃倫?巴菲特對伯克希爾、經濟形勢和資本市場的總體看法。

????巴菲特往往會傳遞出一個樂觀的信號，尤其是在經濟以及美國市場方面。周六早上6:30，當Centurylink中心的大門一打開，在黑暗和寒冷中等候了幾個小時的人們紛紛沖向了盡可能接近講臺的座位，希望能夠近距離聆聽巴菲特傳經布道。

????經過了幾年的動蕩經濟形勢后，巴菲特的樂觀看法似乎更有據可依。上周五公布的非農就業數據顯示，美國4月份新增就業人數多于預期。與此同時，美國股市五年來首次出現了資金凈流入。近期美國股市也接連刷新了歷史記錄高位。

????不過，巴菲特的信徒似乎再次與其他市場人士格格不入。

????在美國知名基金經理馬里奧?蓋伯里為哥倫比亞大學（Columbia University）赫爾布倫投資中心（Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing）舉辦的籌款宴會上，投資者們表示，美國股市的這輪上漲行情似乎走過頭了。伯克希爾公司的股票也是如此，看上去不再是一個非常值得投資的標的。這和一年前面臨的情況發生了近乎一百八十度的大逆轉，當時在座的還是這些投資者，但他們大多看好大型公司的股票，尤其是伯克希爾。這次宴會仍然是在奧馬哈市中心的希爾頓酒店舉行。從伯克希爾年度股東大會會址——CenturyLink中心穿過街道即可到達。許多專業投資者通常會在周末舉行的巴菲特年會的第一天晚上在此云集。巴菲特曾在哥倫比亞大學攻讀研究生。

????另一位知名投資者利昂?庫珀曼稱，他認為企業盈利會讓投資者失望。“但是在美聯儲（Federal Reserve）營造的環境下，沒有什么資產能勝過股票，”庫珀曼說。但若美聯儲撤銷貨幣刺激措施，市場屆時可能遭受重創。歐洲仍然是個問題，因為歐洲領導人在應對當地問題方面的行動一直相當遲緩。此前受益于政府支出的公司和部分經濟領域很可能會在華盛頓削減開支和應對債務問題之際遭受重創。“我會遠離任何一家從政府赤字中受益的公司，”庫珀曼說。“他們的錢袋子要漏了。”曾就職于高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）的庫珀曼如今掌管著資產管理規模達80億美元的對沖基金——歐米茄顧問（Omega Advisors）公司。

????哥倫比亞大學著名投資學教授、第一雄鷹基金（FirstEagle Funds）研究總監布魯斯?格林沃德指出，美國經濟將陷入一個非常緩慢的增長環境。住房市場的復蘇力度不足以推動經濟增長，他說，美國家庭將不得不多存少花。中國和日本都將壓低利率，美國的出口增長將因此受挫。

????Be cautious about U.S. stocks and, especially, bonds. Europe is a good value. Berkshire Hathaway's stock is no longer a buy, but Apple may be. That was the general feeling of investors gathered here in Omaha for Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting.

????The mood about the market matched the weather, rainy and unseasonably cold. That didn't keep away the tens of thousands of investors, many professional, who pour into in this city each year for a weekend to hear Warren Buffett opine on his company's stock, the economy and the market in general.

????Buffett typically delivers an upbeat take on the economy and America especially. When the doors at the Centurylink Center opened at 6:30am Saturday, people who had been waiting outside in the dark and cold for hours dashed between rows of seats on the floor of the arena to get as close to the stage where Buffett will be speaking as possible.

????After a few years of trouble, Buffett seems to have more backing for his bullish view. Friday's jobs report showed that the economy added more jobs than expected. For the first time in five years, investors are putting more money into the market then they are pulling out. Stocks have hit new all-time highs recently.

????Once again, though, Buffett's faithful seem out of step with the rest of the market.

????Investors speaking at a dinner sponsored by Mario Gabelli to benefit the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing at Columbia University, where Buffett went to graduate school, said the stock market rally seems to be getting ahead of itself. Berkshire, too, no longer seems like a great bet. That was a near 100% about-face from a year ago, when the same group was mostly bullish on the shares of large companies and Berkshire (BRKA) in particular. The dinner, once again, was held at the downtown Omaha Hilton, which is across the street from the Centurylink Center, where the Berkshire annual meeting is held, and where lots of professional investors typically congregate on the first night of Buffett's annual weekend.

????Leon Cooperman, a Goldman Sachs (GS) alumni who runs the $8 billion Omega Advisors hedge fund, said he thought corporate profits would disappoint investors. "The Federal Reserve has created an environment where there is no better asset than equities," Cooperman said. But when the Fed removes its stimulus, the market could suffer. Europe is a problem, because leaders there have been slow to address their problems. And the companies and parts of the economy that have benefited for a while from government spending are likely to be hit as Washington curtails spending and deals with the national debt. "I would stay away from any company that has benefited from the deficit," says Cooperman. "Their pockets are about to get unlined."

????Bruce Greenwald, Columbia's renowned investing professor and the Director of Research at FirstEagle Funds, said the economy was going to be stuck in a very slow growth environment. The housing recovery isn't going to be strong enough to drive the economy up, he said. U.S. households will have to save more and spend less. China and Japan are both going to hold down their currencies, thwarting growth of U.S. exports.