美國債務上限難題：先還債，還是先發社保

????當然，出現上述情況的條件是財政部決定把老奶奶放在中國和其他債券持有人之前。這樣的考驗很快就會到來。10月17日之后，美國政府的賬戶里就將只剩下約300億美元（1843.5億元人民幣）資金，再加上平均每天約70億美元（430.15億元人民幣）的遞延稅收入，這就是美國政府所能動用的全部資金——而且這種情況也不會維持很久。到11月初，財政部就要為聯邦醫療保險（Medicare）撥款約170億美元（1044.65億元人民幣）；為社保撥款250億美元（1536.25億元人民幣），而且此后每周還需要為社保提供120億美元（737.4億元人民幣）資金；此外還要為現役和退伍軍人，包括補充保障收入（Supplemental Security Income）領取人，撥款250億美元。11月15日，政府還得向債券持有人支付約310億美元（1904.95億元人民幣）利息——屆時就可能出現資金缺口。

????在這種情況下，美國政府有可能推遲還債時間，直到獲得資金或者債務上限問題得到解決——它會有什么樣的反應將主要取決于市場做何反應。此外，接下來會發生什么完全沒人說得準。為了老奶奶和中國著想，但愿我們永遠也不用知道。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie???

????That is, of course, if the Treasury decides to put grandma first in line in front of China and other bondholders. The test will come sooner than later. After the 17th the U.S. will only have around $30 billion in its account. It receives on average around $7 billion a day in revenue from withholding taxes. That revenue, combined with the $30 billion, is all the money the U.S. can live on -- it won't last very long. At the beginning of November the Treasury will need to pay out some $17 billion to Medicare; $25 billion to social security (with another $12 billion weekly thereafter); and $25 billion for military and veteran pay, including those receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). On November 15th the government will have to pay around $31 billion in interest due to bondholders -- it probably won't have enough cash to cover it.

????The government could then delay payments on its debt until it has the money or until a deal is worked out -- how it responds will be dictated largely on how the market responds. Beyond that, it is really anyone's guess as to what could happen next. For grandma and China's sake, let's hope we never find out.