假如美國違約，美元的下場會(huì)很難看

????此外，根據(jù)相關(guān)協(xié)議，共同基金不能持有違約證券，因此他們肯定會(huì)火速清倉美國國債。所有這些都將威脅商業(yè)銀行的健康，損害美國聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司（Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.）的信譽(yù)。艾肯格林寫道：“除了短期財(cái)務(wù)成本外，美元的避險(xiǎn)作用也將喪失。”

????可以肯定的是，美元早就沒有那么受歡迎了。近幾年來，為了提高外匯儲(chǔ)備收益水平和降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中國一直在減持美國國債，分散外匯儲(chǔ)備投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。截至6月，在中國國家外匯管理局（State Administration of Foreign Exchange）持有的外匯儲(chǔ)備中，美國國債所占的比例為35%左右，而2010年6月這一比例為45%。

????美國的政治僵局解決不了問題。雖然本周美國可能會(huì)僥幸避免違約，但如果債務(wù)上限談判再度陷入僵局，美元將會(huì)逐步喪失它強(qiáng)大的地位。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：William??

????And mutual funds prohibited by covenant from holding defaulted securities would have to dump their Treasuries in a fire sale. And all this could threaten the health of commercial banks and undermine confidence in the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which insures deposits. "Beyond the immediate financial costs, the dollar's global safe-haven status would be lost," Eichengreen writes.

????To be sure, the dollar has already been unraveling. In recent years, China, the world's second-largest economy, has been trying to diversify away from U.S. government debt to seek higher returns and reduce risk. As of June, about 35% of the foreign-exchange funds held by China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange were in U.S. government debt, compared with 45% in June 2010.

????U.S. political gridlock doesn't help. The nation may barely miss default this week, but another showdown over the debt ceiling puts Americans closer to the fall of the mighty greenback.