日本經濟最大的敵人是……臺風？

????就在臺風“海燕”襲擊菲律賓之前，正在沖繩島附近的溫暖海域游泳戲水的日本北部居民肯定注意到，今年的海水更溫暖一些。具體來說，海水的溫度大約為28攝氏度，高于空氣溫度（26攝氏度）。能夠在漫長的冬季抵達東京之前享受最后一縷夏日驕陽自然是美事一樁，但對于一些太平洋沿岸國家及其經濟而言，這種天氣卻是致命的。

????像海燕這樣的熱帶氣旋通常形成于大片相對溫暖的水域之上。隨著今年創紀錄的高溫，東亞海域周圍的海洋已經提供了充沛的暖度，由此催生出的超級海浪已經重創菲律賓等國，遭受打擊的不僅僅是物理實體，還包括這些國家的經濟。

????自然災害似乎將不可避免地引發進一步的苦難。世界第三大經濟體、富裕的島國日本也將承受經濟負擔。此外，惡性臺風襲來時，日本也是首當其沖的受害者。一些專家估計，在不久的將來，惡性臺風將變得更加強大，更加迅猛。

????日本地處所謂“臺風胡同”(Typhoon Alley)地帶的中央。慕尼黑再保險公司(Munich Re)估計，在亞洲地區1980年至2008年10次經濟損失最嚴重的自然災害中，有8次是日本遭受的臺風襲擊。東京大學(University of Tokyo)的氣候學家米格爾?埃斯特萬表示，可以肯定的是，如此高的代價或許應歸因于日本人購買的保單顯著增加。他在近期發布的一篇論文中寫道：“除了嚴重的物理實體損害外，日本還遭受了這些天氣系統導致的其他間接經濟后果，其中包括因公共交通系統或港口等重要行業癱瘓而造成的經濟生產力損失。”

????日本是一個食品和能源幾乎完全依賴進口的經濟體，比其他發達國家更容易遭受自然災害的破壞性影響。根據英國駐日本大使館發布的一份氣候變化報告，日本在20世紀90年代因臺風遭受的直接損失比70年代高35倍，因洪災遭受的直接損失是70年代的8倍。

????但災難還遠未終結。日本的研究人員聲稱，氣候變化的影響預計將在本世紀下半葉釀成“超級臺風”，它們將以超過高速列車的速度形成摧枯拉朽之勢。

????英國發布的《斯特恩氣候變化經濟學評述報告》(Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change)聲稱，這種風暴的經濟影響將極其嚴重。“氣候變化的整體成本和風險將相當于全球GDP每年至少損失5%，從現在一直持續至永遠。如果把更廣泛的風險和影響考慮在內，這種損失估計將上升至全球GDP的20%，甚至更多。”

????“臺風當然損害經濟，它們在各地造成的損害一直在增加，”埃斯特萬說。“然而，損失的上升總的來說是因為暴露于災害之下的生命財產數量增加了。跟50年前比起來，現在居住在沿海地區的人更多，人們擁有的財物也更多。所以，臺風造成的經濟損失也更大。”

????對于日本列島而言，2013年無疑是一個臺風“大年”。日本列島每年平均經受26.7次臺風，而今年迄今為止已經歷了28次，年內很可能將超過30次。日本旋風（太平洋的臺風和大西洋的颶風）通常生成于南太平洋，它經常搭乘的正是那股把環球航行者沿日本東海岸送往舊金山的急流——臺風盟軍(Typhoon Ally)。

????埃斯特萬說：“鑒于全球變暖不斷加劇，我們務必要理解這些現象造成的時間和金錢損失可能的上升趨勢。”隨著相關國家試圖成長為類似日本這樣的經濟體，損失只會有增無減。

????Northern revelers swimming the balmy seas off Okinawa just before typhoon Haiyun struck the Philippines must have noticed the waters were warmer this year. Around 28 degrees Celsius, compared to an air temperature of 26 degrees Celsius. Great for a last bit of summer sun before the long winter in Tokyo but deadly for some of the peoples of the Pacific and their economies.

????Tropical cyclones like Haiyun typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. With record high temperatures this year, the oceans around the East Asian seas have supplied such warmth in abundance, generating megastorms, which have hit nations like the Philippines hard, both physically and economically.

????Further misery from natural disasters seems unavoidable. And the wealthier islands of Japan -- the world's third-biggest economy – will also share the financial burden. Japan also bares the brunt of vicious typhoons, which are forecast to grow even stronger in the near future, according to experts.

????Japan is located in the middle of what is known as Typhoon Alley. Reinsurer Munich Re reckons that, between 1980 and 2008, eight of the 10 costliest natural disasters in Asia were typhoons that hit Japan. To be sure, such high costs may be due to an increase in insurance policies taken out in Japan, says climate scientist Miguel Esteban at the University of Tokyo. "Japan has experienced severe physical damage and other, indirect economic consequences of these weather systems. These include the loss in economic productivity due to downtime in the public transportation system or other important industries, such as ports," he wrote in a recent paper.

????Relying almost entirely on imports of food and energy, Japan Inc. is more vulnerable to the disruptive effects of natural disasters than other developed states. According to a report on climate change by the U.K. Embassy in Japan, the cost of direct damage from typhoons in Japan in the 1990s was 35 times greater than what it was in the 1970s, while the cost of damage related to flooding was eight times as much.

????If that weren't enough, the effects of climate change are expected to spawn "super-typhoons," packing winds faster than a bullet train in the second half of this century, say Japanese researchers.

????The economic repercussions of such storms will be severe, says the U.K.'s Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. "The overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more."

????"Of course typhoons hurt the economy, and the damage they cause has generally been increasing," says Esteban. "Although this increase is generally attributed to increased exposure. There are more people in coastal areas, and people own more things these days than they did 50 years ago, so when something happens, the economic damage is greater."

????2013 has certainly been a typhoon bumper year for the Japanese archipelago, which usually averages about 26.7 annually. The tally has been 28 typhoons so far, with that number likely to surpass 30. Japanese cyclones -- typhoons in the Pacific, hurricanes in the Atlantic -- are normally spawned in the south Pacific and often travel up the same jet stream -- Typhoon Ally -- that sent pioneering circumnavigators along the east coast of Japan toward San Francisco.

????"With global warming on the rise, it is important to understand how the amount of time and money lost due to these phenomena could increase," says Esteban. As nations attempt to grow into economies like Japan, losses will only increase.