美國年賺35億美元基金經(jīng)理：市場(chǎng)堪憂 勿逆市而為

????美國薪資最高的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理對(duì)市場(chǎng)感到憂心忡忡。

????經(jīng)營著Appaloosa Management的大衛(wèi)?泰珀說：“有些時(shí)機(jī)是用來賺錢的，而眼下要避免虧損。我覺得目前的局勢(shì)令人感到不安。”

????周三，泰珀在今年拉斯維加斯SALT投資大會(huì)上對(duì)基金經(jīng)理同行和其他與會(huì)人員發(fā)出了一番警示。泰珀很少在公開場(chǎng)合聊市場(chǎng)，他最近被《機(jī)構(gòu)投資者》（Institutional Investor）雜志的《阿爾法》（Alpha）專刊評(píng)選為薪資最高的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理。這本雜志稱，他去年掙了35億美元。

????泰珀最大的擔(dān)憂在于經(jīng)濟(jì)前景及其對(duì)股票價(jià)格的影響。他說，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率能達(dá)到4%，他就不會(huì)產(chǎn)生這樣的擔(dān)憂。然而他說，即便考慮極端天氣對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速似乎也要比他預(yù)期的緩慢得多。確實(shí)，美國2014年第一季度GDP增速只有0.1%。

????泰珀說，這是個(gè)問題，因?yàn)槟壳暗墓蓛r(jià)平均水平隱含16倍的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率，意味著投資者預(yù)期企業(yè)的盈利會(huì)相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁。但如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長慢于預(yù)期，那么利潤有可能會(huì)令人們大失所望。

????泰珀指出，鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景平軟，通縮也令人擔(dān)憂。泰珀說：“如果我們?cè)儆龅絻r(jià)格壓力，那么利潤真的會(huì)被壓低。”

????泰珀表示，盡管人們通常認(rèn)為他是多頭，但他目前仍然持一部分現(xiàn)金。“我并不是建議大家做空，”泰珀稱，用華爾街的說法就是別逆市而為。“但也別拼命做多。” (財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者：翔

????The nation's highest paid hedge fund manager is concerned about the market.

????"There are times to make money," says David Tepper, who runs Appaloosa Management. "This is a time to not lose money. I think it is a nervous time."

????On Wednesday, Tepper cautioned fellow fund managers and other attendees of this year's SALT Investing Conference in Las Vegas. Tepper, who rarely talks about the market publicly, was recently named the highest paid hedge fund manager by Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine. The magazine said he made $3.5 billion last year.

????Tepper's biggest concerns hinge on economic growth prospects and its effect on stock prices. He said his opinion would be different if the economy was growing at 4%. But he said that, even adjusting for the weather, the economy looks to be growing much more slowly than he expected. Indeed, U.S. GDP grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2014.

????That's a problem, Tepper says, because stocks on average are trading at 16 times next year's expected earnings. That means investors are expecting relatively strong bottom lines. But if the economy is growing more slowly than expected, profits are likely to disappoint.

????Tepper says he is also concerned about deflation, given the sluggish economic growth prospects. "If we have price pressure as well, then that's really going to push down profits," says Tepper.

????Tepper says that while he is normally seen as a bullish investor, he currently has a portion of his money in cash. "I'm not saying go short," Tepper says, which is the Wall Street term for betting against the market. "But don't be super long either."