卡爾?伊坎重金押注股市崩盤(pán)

上個(gè)月，這位億萬(wàn)富翁投資者在美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道（CNBC）的節(jié)目中表示，除非聯(lián)邦政府加大投入刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，否則美國(guó)股市的“最終審判之日”即將來(lái)臨。在最近提交給美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)（SEC）的文件中，Icahn Enterprises證明了這位投資者絕不只是胡吹大氣。該公司現(xiàn)在的凈空頭頭寸已經(jīng)達(dá)到了149%。

這意味著伊坎的空頭頭寸價(jià)值——或者說(shuō)他的基金通過(guò)借貸而不是購(gòu)買(mǎi)獲得的金融資產(chǎn)——達(dá)到了多頭頭寸價(jià)值的149%。伊坎希望通過(guò)這些資產(chǎn)的貶值來(lái)掙錢(qián)，屆時(shí)，他就能以比借貸時(shí)更低的價(jià)格購(gòu)入這些公司的股票，從而賺取其中的差價(jià)。

伊坎在今年4月表示，因?yàn)榈屠实木壒剩蓛r(jià)被人為地推高了，但是基本的經(jīng)濟(jì)要素?zé)o法讓股票維持在這樣的價(jià)格上。在5月5日的收益電話(huà)會(huì)議上，Icahn Enterprises的首席執(zhí)行官基斯?科扎強(qiáng)調(diào)了這種觀點(diǎn)。他說(shuō)：“比起股市上漲20%，我們認(rèn)為股市下跌20%的可能性大得多。”

財(cái)經(jīng)博客Zero Hedge把Icahn Enterprises的投資組合與公認(rèn)最看跌的對(duì)沖基金Horseman Global進(jìn)行了對(duì)比，從而更直觀地體現(xiàn)了這次伊坎空頭頭寸的規(guī)模。Horseman Global通過(guò)做空已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了連續(xù)四年的盈利，他們的凈空頭頭寸只有98%，遠(yuǎn)低于伊坎的149%。

到目前為止，伊坎的賭注還沒(méi)有收到回報(bào)，2016年的前三個(gè)月，Icahn Enterprises的投資基金虧損了12.8%。不過(guò)這位著名的投資人正在押下重注，他會(huì)在未來(lái)證明自己是對(duì)的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Last month, the billionaire investor took to CNBC’s airwaves to argue that “a day of reckoning” was coming for American stock markets unless the federal government stimulates the economy with more spending. In a recent filing with the SEC, Icahn Enterprises IEP -2.83% showed that the investor isn’t fooling around, announcing that it had a net short position of 149%.

That means that the value of Icahn’ s short positions—or financial assets that his funds have borrowed rather than bought—is worth 149% more than the value of his long positions. Icahn hopes to make money on these assets declining in value, at which point he would cash out by buying shares in companies at a cheaper price than what he borrowed them for, pocketing the difference in price.

In April, Icahn argued that stock prices have been pushed artificially high by low interest rates, but that economic fundamentals could not support those prices. During an earnings call on May 5th, Icahn Enterprises CEO Keith Cozza underscored these views. “We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%,” he said.

To put this short position in context, finance blog Zero Hedge compared Icahn Enterprises’ portfolio to what it had considered to be the most bearish hedge fund, Horseman Global, which has profitably run a short book for four years. Horseman’s net short position is just 98%, far less than Icahn’s 149%.

So far, Icahn’s bets haven’t paid off, with Icahn Enterprises investment funds losing 12.8% in the first three months of 2016, but the famed investor is betting big that he will be proved right in the long run.