2017年11只最佳分紅股

股息，即上市公司從收入中拿出多少分給股東是非常重要的。過去一百年里，股市投資者回報中近一半都是股息。如果很多經濟學家預測應驗，未來幾年股市回報將保持平緩，股息在吸引投資者方面的作用只會更大。

但現在想找慷慨分紅的股票非常困難。多年跑贏大市后，愿意分紅的股票估值一般也相對虛高。據戴維斯研究機構，按股息算，標普500指數中排名前25%的股票市盈率達17倍，而過去36年市場平均市盈率為12倍。而且這些公司派的股息也算不上大方：提高股息的公司越來越少，降低的倒是日漸增多。如果美聯儲真像預期一樣加息，投資者有可能大批撤離，導致股市下行。

為了深入了解，《財富》采訪了五位專門研究高股息股票的資深公募基金經理，詢問他們對當前市場的看法。若要進一步了解分析的細節，請查閱《投資者指南》專刊中的專題報道。以下列出了11只股市專家認為有機會增值而且相對穩健的股票。

1．空氣化工產品公司是一家工業氣體公司，是美國世紀投資公司首席投資官兼股市回報基金經理菲兒·戴維森最熱愛的一只股票。工業氣體是準入門檻很高的行業，少數幾家公司把控整個市場。空氣化工產品公司最近出售了部分資產，集中精力經營高質量的核心資產，提升了資本回報率，也順利償還了欠債。目前公司股價有折讓，主要是宏觀因素導致，例如投資者擔心全球經濟放緩等。但戴維森認為低價是暫時的。

2．康卡斯特公司是有線電視巨頭，出現在名單里有些奇怪。其股息水平一般，只有1.8%，低于標普500股票約2%的平均水平。但T. Rowe Price紅利成長基金的基金經理湯姆·胡伯認為這家公司的資產負債表相當亮眼，管理層非常有頭腦，而且業績“被低估”——旗下NBC業務的盈利其實一直在增長。過去五年里康卡斯特的股息以20%的比例增加，還有進一步提升的空間。再加上股票回購和股價提升等因素，胡伯認為該股回報有望實現每年兩位數增長。

3．倉儲式連鎖超市好市多在股息方面類似康卡斯特。過去10年中好市多的股價和收益增長并不多，僅為1.2%，但股息年均增長達24%。威靈頓基金公司的先鋒股息增長基金經理唐·基爾布萊德特別熱愛好市多的管理層（欲深入了解，請查閱12月15日《財富》關于好市多的報道），還有利潤增長史。“提起好市多的優點，我能一直說。”

4．有限品牌公司是服裝零售商，旗下擁有維多利亞的秘密、身體乳品牌Bath & Body Works等。富達全球股票投資基金經理蕾蒙娜·佩爾紹德非常欣賞該公司對用戶需求的“精準”把握，而且資本回報率“遠超市場平均水平”，過去五年股息率約為27%。有限品牌公司一邊維持高股息率，一邊股價也與市場整體水平相當。股票收益率為3.4%，2011年以來派息年增長率達25%。

5．美敦力公司是一家醫療設備制造商，總部位于愛爾蘭，佩爾佩爾紹德認為這家公司有前途的原因是位于歐洲。英國公共養老金盛行，需要持續的現金流，從而催生了高回報的市場文化。美敦力的收益率為2.1%，略高于標普500指數收益率。

6．微軟是科技行業當之無愧的現金牛。微軟的企業服務占了收入和利潤大部分，也鎖定了未來大多數收入。哈特福德股票收益投資組合經理邁克爾·艾克梅爾指出，企業服務是粘性很強的一塊，因為大公司不會輕易更改技術設置。微軟的云服務和數據業務減緩了桌面軟件業務日漸衰退的沖擊。微軟股價持續上揚，市盈率也增至18.3倍。市盈率增長的同時股票收益仍然可觀（2.6%），股息也連續12年增加。

7．對威靈頓的基爾布賴德來說，運動裝備巨頭耐克是最理想的投資對象：持續產生價值，而且總是慷慨地與股東分享。耐克的利潤和現金流在市場里均名列前茅，每股收益率也多年保持兩位數增長。由于經營有方，耐克股票的股息也穩健提升，過去10年年均增長率為18%，用基爾布賴德的話說“是個非常驚人的數字”。（目前耐克股票收益率為1.3%。）不過目前派息率并不高，僅為22%，說明未來耐克可以輕松消化投資者增加的影響。

8．百事公司是市場上難找的分紅大戶，已經連續25年以上提升派息率。百事旗下主要是飲料和零食業務，現金流非常充足，過去10年里股息年均增長率為10%，目前收益率為2.9%。T. Rowe Price紅利成長基金的胡伯預計百事市盈率會保持高個位數增長，未來幾年股價會持續走高，隨后收益率會提升。

9．斯倫貝謝是油氣服務巨頭，在市場上占據壟斷地位，業務增長平穩，油價波動對股票有些影響。不過美國世紀投資公司的戴維森指出，斯倫貝謝在周期性衰退時低價收購了一些公司，進一步鞏固了市場地位。再加上出色的財務報表，從未縮減股息——目前收益率為2.5%，而且股價極低（過去兩年跌去三分之一），看起來是個撿大便宜的機會。

10．聯合太平洋是美國最大的鐵路運營商，所以排進了邁克爾·艾克梅爾的“最愛”名單。2015年受油價下跌等外部因素影響，聯合太平洋業務量有所下滑，不過艾克梅爾認為這是個好機會。隨著原油價格回升，煤炭和糧食庫存下降，聯合太平洋削減成本的措施收效明顯，去年股價上漲了17.5%。最好的消息是，該公司在全國很多地區占據市場壟斷地位，定價能力就保證了利潤。目前收益率為2.3%。

11.VF公司是一系列品牌的母公司，包括樂斯菲斯，添柏嵐，Leen牛仔部落等，銷售額達230億美元，因此躋身佩爾紹德的關注名單。今年以來該公司股價下跌了10%，市盈率也下降至16.4倍。現在可能是買入VF股票，享受2.9%收益率的好機會。 （財富中文網）

作者：Chris Talor

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

Dividends, the share of their revenues that companies pay to their shareholders, are a big deal: Over the past century, they’ve accounted for roughly half of total returns earned by stock investors. And if stock returns flatten out over the next few years, as many economists anticipate, dividends will matter even more in driving growth for investors.

But these days, it’s unusually difficult to find dividend-paying stocks that look like good buys. Stock valuations in the category are lofty after years of outperforming the broader market. The forward price/earnings ratio of the top 25% of S&P 500 stocks by dividend yield is 17, vs. a 36-year average of 12, according to Ned Davis Research. And the dividends themselves can seem relatively stingy: The number of companies increasing their dividend has been shrinking, and the number of decreases is accelerating. And there’s also the danger that if interest rates rise, as is expected, investors could flee the sector and send stocks careening downward.

With those pitfalls in mind, Fortune talked with five veteran mutual fund managers who specialize in dividend stocks, getting their takes on what’s happening in the markets. For a more detailed breakdown of their analyses, see this feature in our Investor’s Guide issue. In the meantime, here are 11 stocks where the experts see opportunity and safety.

1. Air Products & Chemicals APD -0.52% , an industrial gas company, is a favorite stock of Phil Davidson, American Century’s chief investment officer and manager of its Equity Income fund. Industrial gas is a realm with a high barrier to entry; just a handful of operators control almost all the market. Recent asset sales have helped Air Products & Chemicals focus on high-quality core assets, fire up its return on capital, and pay down debt. The shares have sold off because of macro issues, like worries about a global slowdown, but Davidson views that as a transitory blip.

2. Comcast , the cable giant, may seem like an odd fit for the list. It pays a modest 1.8%, below the S&P 500 average of about 2%. But Tom Huber, the manager of the T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth Fund, praises its best-in-class balance sheet, savvy management, and “underappreciated” performance—including the improving profits of its NBC unit. Comcast has been increasing its dividend at a healthy 20% clip for the past five years and has room to bolster it further. Combine that with stock buybacks and share-price increases, and Huber foresees double-digit annual returns.

3. Costco tells a dividend story similar to Comcast’s. The big-box chain has a yield in line with its frugal prices—a bargain-basement 1.2%—but that dividend has been rising 24% a year over the past 10 years. The company’s management (for more, see our feature on Costco in the Dec. 15 issue of Fortune) and history of earnings growth earn rapturous reviews from Don Kilbride of Wellington Management, who oversees Vanguard’s Dividend Growth Fund: “I could talk forever about Costco.”

4. L Brands LB 0.29% is a clothing retailer that owns the likes of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works. Ramona Persaud, manager of Fidelity’s Global Equity Income Fund, likes the company’s “shrewd” instincts and its knack for delivering a return on capital “far superior to the market,” an average of about 27% over the past five years. Despite that, L Brands shares trade at a valuation roughly equal to the overall market’s. The stock’s yield is 3.4%, and the payout has been growing at a 25% annual clip since 2011.

5. Medtronic MDT 0.61% , the Ireland-based medical device maker, looks promising in part because it’s European, according to Persaud. The prevalence of public pensions in the U.K., which require ongoing cash streams to service their obligations, has helped to create a market culture that values higher yields. Medtronic’s yield: 2.1%, slightly higher than the S&P 500.

6. Microsoft is one of the tech industry’s true cash machines. The company’s enterprise business, which accounts for the vast majority of its revenues and profits, has locked in gushers of ongoing revenue. Michael Reckmeyer, a portfolio manager of Hartford Equity Income, notes that that’s a sticky business—big companies don’t change their tech setups easily—and Microsoft’s cloud and database businesses are dhelping mitigate the secular decline of desktop software. To be sure, Microsoft’s price/earnings ratio has surged, to 18.3, after a nice run. But even at that level the shares offer a substantial yield (2.6%), and the dividend has been raised for 12 years running.

7. Nike is an excellent representative of the two factors Kilbride of Wellington looks for: companies that are creating value and making a habit of distributing that value to shareholders. Fat margins and plenty of free cash flow are both “top of class,” and earnings per share have been growing at a double-digit rate for years. That operating wizardry has allowed the sports-apparel Goliath to push its dividend up steadily, at 18% a year over the past decade, an “astonishingly good number,” says Kilbride. (Current yield: 1.3%.) And yet the “payout ratio” of dividends to profits remains a modest 22%, which indicates Nike can easily afford more shareholder raises in the future.

8. PepsiCo is one of the rare companies that qualify as Dividend Aristocrats, having raised their payouts for 25 straight years or more. A strong mix of beverages and snacks has meant plenty of free cash flow and 10% annual dividend bumps for the past 10 years, making for a 2.9% current yield. Huber of T. Rowe Price foresees high-single-digit earnings-per-share growth, and 15% share-price upside in the next couple of years, even before factoring in yield.

9. Schlumberger, the oil and gas services giant, has a dominant market share and stable underlying businesses, but its relationship to volatile oil prices buffets the stock quite a bit. Still, Davidson of American Century points out that Schlumberger shrewdly uses the periodic downturns to improve its competitive position, buying companies on the cheap. Combine that with a sparkling balance sheet and its history of never cutting its dividend—the yield is now 2.5%—and its beaten-down share price (down by a third over the past two years) looks like an opportunity to pick up a high-quality bargain.

10. Union Pacific UNP 0.30% , the largest railroad operator in the U.S., also makes Michael Reckmeyer’s “nice” list. When the carrier’s 2015 volumes fell because of external forces, such as collapsing oil prices, Reckmeyer saw an opportunity. Rebounding crude prices, lower coal and grain inventories, and a cost-cutting regimen have all begun working in Union Pacific’s favor since then, with the stock having risen 17.5% in the past year. Perhaps best of all: The firm essentially has a number of regional monopolies around the country, and hence the pricing power to generate some impressive margins. Its yield: 2.3%.

11. VF Corp. VFC -0.93% , the $23-billion-in-sales parent company of brands ranging from the North Face to Timberland to Lee jeans, also makes Persaud’s list. The retailer’s stock has slipped 10% so far this year, lowering its forward P/E to 16.4. Now could be a handy moment to buy VF shares and profit from their 2.9% yield.