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汽車貸款

美國的另一個次貸問題

美國汽車銷售早已從大衰退時的低點反彈，但購車一族的情況并不是那么好。紐約聯儲銀行的數據顯示，2018年底有700多萬美國人“嚴重拖欠”汽車貸款，也就是逾期90天，這是一個前所未有的數字。如果它進一步上升，就有可能對整個經濟產生令人不安的影響。

正如紐約聯儲銀行所說，這個數字表明火熱的就業市場“并非惠及所有美國人”。在各年齡段中，18-29歲的貸款購車者的拖欠率最高。這再次表明年輕成年人的自立之路是如何的困難——他們的可支配收入往往都消耗在了學生貸款上。

但手頭吃緊的借款人并非唯一的不穩定因素。摩根大通和富國銀行等大型銀行已退出這個領域，專營汽車金融業務的非銀行貸款機構則填補了這些空缺。財務咨詢公司MRV Associates負責人維拉·羅德里格斯·瓦拉達雷斯介紹說，其中許多機構“受到的監管都不像銀行那么謹慎”，而且“一直在降低貸款標準”。

因此，美國汽車貸款規模達到了歷史最高點——截至2018年底，汽車貸款余額為1.27萬億美元，而且有風險的借款人所占百分比也異乎尋常的高。紐約聯儲銀行的數據顯示，約22%的車貸屬于次級貸款，在汽車金融公司的貸款中，這個比例則為50%。新澤西州普林斯頓市汽車保險公司CURE Auto Insurance首席運營官埃里克·坡說：“我們看到有人為已經開了10年的[二手]車貸款，而且利率是29%。”華爾街對汽車貸款類資產支持證券的偏好在這方面起到了推波助瀾的作用。美國證券業與金融市場協會的數據表明，2018年此類證券的流通在外總價值已達到創紀錄的2228億美元。

貸款過多的年輕人、松懈的監管以及面向投資者的問題貸款“證券化”。對于這樣的“組合”，感覺似曾相識的人可不只你一個。分析師都認為這種情況類似于上次衰退前飛速擴張的次級抵押貸款。好消息是汽車貸款市場要比抵押貸款市場小得多（2007年，抵押貸款市場中約有1.3萬億美元的次貸，比目前整個汽車貸款市場的規模還大）。如果出現車貸危機，其影響也會較小。不過，對從事車貸業務的銀行的投資者、部分保險公司，當然還有汽車廠商來說，拖欠貸款人數增多可能是個壞消息。請大家系好安全帶，并且注意路況。—Rey Mashayekhi

Auto Loans

America’s other subprime problem

U.S. auto sales bounced back long ago from their Great Recession lows, but car buyers aren’t doing so well. At the end of 2018, more than 7 million Americans were in “serious delinquency,” or 90 days past due, on their auto loan payments, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That total represents an all-time high—and a further spike could send troubling ripples through the broader economy.

As the New York Fed noted, the numbers indicate “not all Americans have benefited” from a strong labor market. Borrowers between the ages of 18 and 29 had the highest delinquency rate of any age group, in another sign of how younger adults—often saddled with student debt obligations that sap their disposable income—are struggling to establish themselves.

But cash-strapped borrowers aren’t the only destabilizing factor. As big banks like ?JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have stepped back from the sector, nonbank lenders that specialize in auto finance have filled the void. Many of them are “not regulated as prudently as banks are,” according to Mayra Rodríguez Valladares, managing principal at financial consultancy MRV Associates, and “have been loosening their underwriting standards.”

As a result, there is more borrowing than ever—with $1.27 trillion in loans outstanding at the end of 2018—and an unusually high percentage of borrowers are risky. Some 22% of auto loans, and 50% of those underwritten by auto-finance companies, qualify as subprime, according to the New York Fed. “We’re seeing loans where people are paying 29% interest for a loan on a 10-year-old [used] car,” says Eric Poe, COO of CURE Auto Insurance, based in Princeton, N.J. Wall Street has fueled this dynamic via its appetite for auto loan asset-backed securities, whose total outstanding value reached a record $222.8 billion in 2018, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).

Overstretched young borrowers, loose regulations, iffy loans “securitized” for investors. If that pattern gives you a queasy sense of déjà vu, you aren’t alone: Analysts agree that the dynamics are similar to the subprime mortgage lending boom that preceded the last recession. The good news is that the auto loan market is far smaller than the mortgage market. (Subprime mortgages alone represented around $1.3 trillion of the mortgage market in 2007—larger than the entire auto loan market today.) And the effects of any crisis would be smaller too. Still, a spike in delinquencies would likely be bad news for investors in banks with auto loan exposure, for some insurance companies, and, of course, for the automakers themselves. Buckle up, and watch the road. —Rey Mashayekhi