
? 計算機科學家、諾貝爾獎得主杰弗里·辛頓預測,隨著企業以人工智能取代工人,AI將引發大規模失業與企業利潤激增。但他對《金融時報》表示,這并非技術的過錯,而是資本主義制度的產物。盡管裁員潮尚未出現,但越來越多的證據表明,AI正在減少初級工作機會。
先鋒計算機科學家杰弗里·辛頓憑借其成就榮獲諾貝爾獎,并被尊為“AI教父”。他表示,人工智能將引發大規模失業與企業利潤激增。
這位前谷歌(Google)科學家接受了《金融時報》的深度專訪,就眾多話題發表了自己的看法。他解釋了自己離開科技巨頭谷歌的原因,就AI可能帶來的威脅發出警告,并透露了自己對AI技術的應用。他還預測了哪些人將成為贏家,哪些人將成為輸家。
辛頓表示:“實際情況是,富人將用AI取代工人。這將引發大規模失業和企業利潤激增。這會令少數人更富,而多數人將更加貧窮。這并非AI技術的過錯,而是資本主義制度的本質?!?/p>
這番言論與他上個月在《財富》雜志的表態遙相呼應。當時,他指出,AI企業更關注短期利潤,而不是技術帶來的長遠后果。
目前裁員潮尚未出現,但越來越多證據表明AI正在減少人類工作機會,尤其是大學應屆畢業生初入職場的初級崗位。
紐約聯儲(New York Fed)調查發現,盡管未來幾個月企業裁員人數預計將有所增長,但使用AI的企業更有可能對員工進行再培訓,而不是解雇。
辛頓此前曾表示,醫療保健行業將是一個能夠在潛在大規模失業潮中幸免的行業。
今年6月,他在YouTube節目《Diary of a CEO 》中解釋稱:“如果能讓醫生的效率提高五倍,我們就能以相同的成本獲得五倍的醫療服務。人們對醫療服務的需求幾乎沒有上限——只要不產生額外成本,患者總是想要獲得更多醫療服務?!?/p>
然而,辛頓堅信,執行日?,嵥楣ぷ鞯膷徫粚⒈籄I接管,但需要高技能的崗位不會受到沖擊。
在接受《金融時報》采訪時,辛頓還駁斥了OpenAI首席執行官薩姆·奧爾特曼提出的構想,即隨著AI顛覆經濟格局和減少對上班族的需求,建議支付全民基本工資。辛頓稱此舉“無法解決人類尊嚴問題”,也無法體現人們從工作中獲得的價值感。
辛頓一直警告AI技術缺乏安全護欄的危險。他估計,在發展出超級人工智能之后,AI技術有10%至20%的可能性會導致人類滅亡。
在他看來,AI的威脅分為兩類:一類是技術本身對人類未來構成的風險;一類是AI被惡意操縱者利用所造成的后果。
在接受《金融時報》采訪時,他警告AI可能助長生物武器研發,并對特朗普政府不愿意對加強AI監管表示遺憾。而中國正在更認真地對待這一威脅。但他同時也承認,鑒于AI技術巨大的可能性和不確定性,它可能蘊含著潛在機遇。
辛頓表示:“我們無法預知未來,那些妄言未來的人不過是自欺欺人。我們正處在驚人變革的關鍵歷史時刻,結果可能極好,也可能極壞。我們只能猜測,但現狀絕不會一成不變?!?/p>
與此同時,他對《金融時報》表示他在生活中也在使用AI,OpenAI的ChatGPT是他的首選。雖然他主要將聊天機器人用于研究,但他透露,前女友曾在兩人分手時用ChatGPT“告訴我我是多么卑鄙的人?!?/p>
他打趣道:“她讓聊天機器人解釋我的行為是多么糟糕,并把結果轉發給我。我并不認為自己是個卑鄙的人,所以這并沒有讓我太難過……我只是遇到了更喜歡的人,你懂的?!?/p>
辛頓還解釋了他在2023年離開谷歌的原因。雖然媒體報道稱他之所以辭職,是為了更自由地談論AI的危害,但這位77歲的諾貝爾獎得主否認此說法。
他表示:“我在75歲時離開谷歌,當時,我的編程能力已大不如前,何況Netflix還有太多我還沒來得及觀看的精彩內容。我努力工作了55年,是時候退休了……而且我想,既然要離開谷歌,索性把AI風險說清楚?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
? 計算機科學家、諾貝爾獎得主杰弗里·辛頓預測,隨著企業以人工智能取代工人,AI將引發大規模失業與企業利潤激增。但他對《金融時報》表示,這并非技術的過錯,而是資本主義制度的產物。盡管裁員潮尚未出現,但越來越多的證據表明,AI正在減少初級工作機會。
先鋒計算機科學家杰弗里·辛頓憑借其成就榮獲諾貝爾獎,并被尊為“AI教父”。他表示,人工智能將引發大規模失業與企業利潤激增。
這位前谷歌(Google)科學家接受了《金融時報》的深度專訪,就眾多話題發表了自己的看法。他解釋了自己離開科技巨頭谷歌的原因,就AI可能帶來的威脅發出警告,并透露了自己對AI技術的應用。他還預測了哪些人將成為贏家,哪些人將成為輸家。
辛頓表示:“實際情況是,富人將用AI取代工人。這將引發大規模失業和企業利潤激增。這會令少數人更富,而多數人將更加貧窮。這并非AI技術的過錯,而是資本主義制度的本質?!?/p>
這番言論與他上個月在《財富》雜志的表態遙相呼應。當時,他指出,AI企業更關注短期利潤,而不是技術帶來的長遠后果。
目前裁員潮尚未出現,但越來越多證據表明AI正在減少人類工作機會,尤其是大學應屆畢業生初入職場的初級崗位。
紐約聯儲(New York Fed)調查發現,盡管未來幾個月企業裁員人數預計將有所增長,但使用AI的企業更有可能對員工進行再培訓,而不是解雇。
辛頓此前曾表示,醫療保健行業將是一個能夠在潛在大規模失業潮中幸免的行業。
今年6月,他在YouTube節目《Diary of a CEO 》中解釋稱:“如果能讓醫生的效率提高五倍,我們就能以相同的成本獲得五倍的醫療服務。人們對醫療服務的需求幾乎沒有上限——只要不產生額外成本,患者總是想要獲得更多醫療服務?!?/p>
然而,辛頓堅信,執行日?,嵥楣ぷ鞯膷徫粚⒈籄I接管,但需要高技能的崗位不會受到沖擊。
在接受《金融時報》采訪時,辛頓還駁斥了OpenAI首席執行官薩姆·奧爾特曼提出的構想,即隨著AI顛覆經濟格局和減少對上班族的需求,建議支付全民基本工資。辛頓稱此舉“無法解決人類尊嚴問題”,也無法體現人們從工作中獲得的價值感。
辛頓一直警告AI技術缺乏安全護欄的危險。他估計,在發展出超級人工智能之后,AI技術有10%至20%的可能性會導致人類滅亡。
在他看來,AI的威脅分為兩類:一類是技術本身對人類未來構成的風險;一類是AI被惡意操縱者利用所造成的后果。
在接受《金融時報》采訪時,他警告AI可能助長生物武器研發,并對特朗普政府不愿意對加強AI監管表示遺憾。而中國正在更認真地對待這一威脅。但他同時也承認,鑒于AI技術巨大的可能性和不確定性,它可能蘊含著潛在機遇。
辛頓表示:“我們無法預知未來,那些妄言未來的人不過是自欺欺人。我們正處在驚人變革的關鍵歷史時刻,結果可能極好,也可能極壞。我們只能猜測,但現狀絕不會一成不變?!?/p>
與此同時,他對《金融時報》表示他在生活中也在使用AI,OpenAI的ChatGPT是他的首選。雖然他主要將聊天機器人用于研究,但他透露,前女友曾在兩人分手時用ChatGPT“告訴我我是多么卑鄙的人。”
他打趣道:“她讓聊天機器人解釋我的行為是多么糟糕,并把結果轉發給我。我并不認為自己是個卑鄙的人,所以這并沒有讓我太難過……我只是遇到了更喜歡的人,你懂的?!?/p>
辛頓還解釋了他在2023年離開谷歌的原因。雖然媒體報道稱他之所以辭職,是為了更自由地談論AI的危害,但這位77歲的諾貝爾獎得主否認此說法。
他表示:“我在75歲時離開谷歌,當時,我的編程能力已大不如前,何況Netflix還有太多我還沒來得及觀看的精彩內容。我努力工作了55年,是時候退休了……而且我想,既然要離開谷歌,索性把AI風險說清楚。”(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
? Computer scientist and Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton predicted artificial intelligence will spark a surge in unemployment and profits as companies replace workers with AI. But it’s not the technology’s fault, he told the Financial Times, attributing it instead to capitalism. While layoffs haven’t spiked, evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities at the entry level.
Pioneering computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, whose work has earned him a Nobel Prize and the moniker “godfather of AI,” said artificial intelligence will spark a surge in unemployment and profits.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the former Google scientist cleared the air about why he left the tech giant, raised alarms on potential threats from AI, and revealed how he uses the technology. But he also predicted who the winners and losers will be.
“What’s actually going to happen is rich people are going to use AI to replace workers,” Hinton said. “It’s going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits. It will make a few people much richer and most people poorer. That’s not AI’s fault, that is the capitalist system.”
That echos comments he gave to Fortune last month, when he said AI companies are more concerned with short-term profits than the long-term consequences of the technology.
For now, layoffs haven’t spiked, but evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially at the entry level where recent college graduates start their careers.
A survey from the New York Fed found that companies using AI are much more likely to retrain their employees than fire them, though layoffs are expected to rise in the coming months.
Hinton said earlier that healthcare is the one industry that will be safe from the potential jobs armageddon.
“If you could make doctors five times as efficient, we could all have five times as much health care for the same price,” he explained on the Diary of a CEO YouTube series in June. “There’s almost no limit to how much health care people can absorb—[patients] always want more health care if there’s no cost to it.”
Still, Hinton believes that jobs that perform mundane tasks will be taken over by AI, while sparing some jobs that require a high level of skill.
In his interview with the FT, he also dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s idea to pay a universal basic income as AI disrupts the economy and reduce demand for workers, saying it “won’t deal with human dignity” and the value people derive from having jobs.
Hinton has long warned about the dangers of AI without guardrails, estimating a 10% to 20% chance of the technology wiping out humans after the development of superintelligence.
In his view, the dangers of AI fall into two categories: the risk the technology itself poses to the future of humanity, and the consequences of AI being manipulated by people with bad intent.
In his FT interview, he warned AI could help someone build a bioweapon and lamented the Trump administration’s unwillingness to regulate AI more closely, while China is taking the threat more seriously. But he also acknowledged potential upside from AI amid its immense possibilities and uncertainties.
“We don’t know what is going to happen, we have no idea, and people who tell you what is going to happen are just being silly,” Hinton said. “We are at a point in history where something amazing is happening, and it may be amazingly good, and it may be amazingly bad. We can make guesses, but things aren’t going to stay like they are.”
Meanwhile, he told the FT how he uses AI in his own life, saying OpenAI’s ChatGPT is his product of choice. While he mostly uses the chatbot for research, Hinton revealed that a former girlfriend used ChatGPT “to tell me what a rat I was” during their breakup.
“She got the chatbot to explain how awful my behavior was and gave it to me. I didn’t think I had been a rat, so it didn’t make me feel too bad?.?.?.?I met somebody I liked more, you know how it goes,” he quipped.
Hinton also explained why he left Google in 2023. While media reports have said he quit so he could speak more freely about the dangers of AI, the 77-year-old Nobel laureate denied that was the reason.
“I left because I was 75, I could no longer program as well as I used to, and there’s a lot of stuff on Netflix I haven’t had a chance to watch,” he said. “I had worked very hard for 55 years, and I felt it was time to retire?.?.?.?And I thought, since I am leaving anyway, I could talk about the risks.”