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          知名風險投資人:AI不會導致“全民失業返貧”

          Emma Burleigh
          2025-10-11

          億萬富翁、安德森·霍洛維茨基金聯合創始人馬克·安德森認為,生產力大幅提升將把人類帶入物質極大豐富的時代,昔日百元之物屆時或僅需一分即可購得。

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          圖片來源:Steve Jennings / Stringer / Getty Images

          在談及AI將給世界帶來的影響時,商界領袖們的意見大相徑庭,Anthropic首席執行官達里奧·阿莫迪警告稱,職場將迎來一輪“浩劫”,五成白領職位將走入歷史;谷歌DeepMind掌門人德米斯·哈薩比斯則預言,技術將開啟太空殖民與超人類生產力的“黃金紀元”。當AI智能體不斷蠶食基層崗位,雇員們開始為職業前景惴惴不安——而億萬富翁投資人馬克·安德森則在設法平息這種“全民失業返貧”的恐慌。

          “我發現,現在有個重大經濟謬論盛行于世,即認為AI將以摧枯拉朽之勢大幅提升生產力、顛覆一切、摧毀所有崗位,”安德森近日在Stripe的 Cheeky Pint播客中說,“然而矛盾的是,(此番論調同時還認為生產力的提高)會導致人們被榨干資源,陷入赤貧之中。”

          這位安德森·霍洛維茨基金的聯合創始人預言,即便此景成真,民眾仍將擁有巨大消費能力。他指出生產力暴漲將引發萬物“供過于求”,昔日百元之物屆時或僅需一分即可購得。

          “而且即便此景成真,那么結果將是物價的斷崖式下跌,而這恰是大家忽略的關鍵所在,”這位54歲的億萬富翁補充道。

          “因此在這種環境中,憑借如此程度的生產力飛躍,商業服務價格將一落千丈,今日耗費不菲的產品將轉瞬變得廉價乃至免費。”

          AI智慧勝于常人,但暫且無法替代所有人類工作

          正如黃仁勛等商界領袖所強調的那樣,AI絕非奪人飯碗的“職位殺手”,相反,如能熟練運用該項技術,員工反而將在職場上占得先機。安德森同樣認為AI技術將助力專業人士提升工作效率,成為行業翹楚

          “借助AI技術,每個人都能成為所有領域的超級專家,”這位企業家在訪談中表示,“因此,每個個體都能取得遠超以往的成就。”

          雖然我們已經目睹有計算機程序員、金融分析師乃至部分技能崗位正被AI大面積取代,這位風險投資企業家仍認為,人類無需擔憂工作崗位被AI全面取代。他堅稱,某些職能仍非由人類承擔不可,即便AI更能勝任。

          “大家所擔憂的職場變局,其進展速度遠遠慢于預期,”安德森直言,“因為美國相當比例的工作需持證上崗、受工會保護或屬公共服務范疇,實際上不可能被AI所替代。”

          “AI教父”、OpenAI首席執行官薩姆·奧爾特曼等科技領袖預言,醫療健康將是少數幾個在這場就業風暴中受到沖擊相對較小的領域,畢竟患者始終渴望由人類為其治療疾病,且機器人尚不具備完成手術及相關任務的能力。

          安德森持相同觀點,他認為,受法規與執業許可限制,醫療法律等領域尚難與AI深度融合。聊天機器人無法參與法庭辯論,算法無法治病救人,但其處理能力實際已經超越從事相關工作的人類從業者。

          “如今的ChatGPT實際上已經比普通醫生優秀,這一點幾乎可以百分之百確定,”他說,并以自動駕駛汽車的發展類比稱:“一直以來大家都在爭論,我們究竟是要追求完美,還是只要優于普通人類駕駛員即可?如果將同樣的問題置于法律或醫療領域,答案顯而易見,那就是選擇ChatGPT醫生現在對你更有利,但現實不允許我們這么做,因為它并不具備醫生的身份。”(財富中文網)

          譯者:梁宇

          審校:夏林

          在談及AI將給世界帶來的影響時,商界領袖們的意見大相徑庭,Anthropic首席執行官達里奧·阿莫迪警告稱,職場將迎來一輪“浩劫”,五成白領職位將走入歷史;谷歌DeepMind掌門人德米斯·哈薩比斯則預言,技術將開啟太空殖民與超人類生產力的“黃金紀元”。當AI智能體不斷蠶食基層崗位,雇員們開始為職業前景惴惴不安——而億萬富翁投資人馬克·安德森則在設法平息這種“全民失業返貧”的恐慌。

          “我發現,現在有個重大經濟謬論盛行于世,即認為AI將以摧枯拉朽之勢大幅提升生產力、顛覆一切、摧毀所有崗位,”安德森近日在Stripe的 Cheeky Pint播客中說,“然而矛盾的是,(此番論調同時還認為生產力的提高)會導致人們被榨干資源,陷入赤貧之中。”

          這位安德森·霍洛維茨基金的聯合創始人預言,即便此景成真,民眾仍將擁有巨大消費能力。他指出生產力暴漲將引發萬物“供過于求”,昔日百元之物屆時或僅需一分即可購得。

          “而且即便此景成真,那么結果將是物價的斷崖式下跌,而這恰是大家忽略的關鍵所在,”這位54歲的億萬富翁補充道。

          “因此在這種環境中,憑借如此程度的生產力飛躍,商業服務價格將一落千丈,今日耗費不菲的產品將轉瞬變得廉價乃至免費。”

          AI智慧勝于常人,但暫且無法替代所有人類工作

          正如黃仁勛等商界領袖所強調的那樣,AI絕非奪人飯碗的“職位殺手”,相反,如能熟練運用該項技術,員工反而將在職場上占得先機。安德森同樣認為AI技術將助力專業人士提升工作效率,成為行業翹楚

          “借助AI技術,每個人都能成為所有領域的超級專家,”這位企業家在訪談中表示,“因此,每個個體都能取得遠超以往的成就。”

          雖然我們已經目睹有計算機程序員、金融分析師乃至部分技能崗位正被AI大面積取代,這位風險投資企業家仍認為,人類無需擔憂工作崗位被AI全面取代。他堅稱,某些職能仍非由人類承擔不可,即便AI更能勝任。

          “大家所擔憂的職場變局,其進展速度遠遠慢于預期,”安德森直言,“因為美國相當比例的工作需持證上崗、受工會保護或屬公共服務范疇,實際上不可能被AI所替代。”

          “AI教父”、OpenAI首席執行官薩姆·奧爾特曼等科技領袖預言,醫療健康將是少數幾個在這場就業風暴中受到沖擊相對較小的領域,畢竟患者始終渴望由人類為其治療疾病,且機器人尚不具備完成手術及相關任務的能力。

          安德森持相同觀點,他認為,受法規與執業許可限制,醫療法律等領域尚難與AI深度融合。聊天機器人無法參與法庭辯論,算法無法治病救人,但其處理能力實際已經超越從事相關工作的人類從業者。

          “如今的ChatGPT實際上已經比普通醫生優秀,這一點幾乎可以百分之百確定,”他說,并以自動駕駛汽車的發展類比稱:“一直以來大家都在爭論,我們究竟是要追求完美,還是只要優于普通人類駕駛員即可?如果將同樣的問題置于法律或醫療領域,答案顯而易見,那就是選擇ChatGPT醫生現在對你更有利,但現實不允許我們這么做,因為它并不具備醫生的身份。”(財富中文網)

          譯者:梁宇

          審校:夏林

          Business leaders are split on how AI will change our world; Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned of a jobs armageddon on the horizon that will wipe out 50% of white collar roles, while Google DeepMind chief executive Demis Hassabis said the tech will usher in a “golden era” of space colonization and superhuman productivity. As AI agents continue to snatch up junior-level work, employees are handwringing about their future careers—but billionaire investor Marc Andreessen is laying the concern to rest that we’ll all be unemployed and penniless.

          “The other great economic fallacy that I just see everywhere right now is this idea that AI is somehow going to be this hyper-successful thing: hyper-acceleration of productivity and [will] dramatically change everything, destroy all the jobs,” Andreessen recently said on Stripe’s Cheeky Pint podcast. “And yet somehow that’s going to lead to people being eviscerated, and being poor and not having anything.”

          Even if that scenario were to come true, the Andreessen Horowitz cofounder predicted that people would enjoy massive spending power. A surge in productivity would cause everything to be “oversupplied,” he said, and things that once cost $100 would now sell for a penny.

          “Even if it played out, the result would be hyper-deflation of prices, which is the thing that people miss,” the 54-year-old billionaire continued.

          “So in that environment, with that level of productivity growth, the price of business services will collapse, and things that today cost a lot of money will all of a sudden all be cheap or free.”

          AI will give people a ‘super-PhD’ and is smarter than humans—but it won’t replace everyone yet

          CEOs like Jensen Huang stress that AI won’t be a job-killer stealing human jobs—instead, employees who are savvy with the tech will be the ones snatching up roles. And Andreessen agreed that AI will give professionals wings to be hyper-efficient workers.

          “AI just makes every individual a super-PhD in every topic,” the entrepreneur predicted in the interview. “As a consequence, every single one of those people is now capable of doing so much more than they were ever capable of doing before.”

          Although we are already witnessing swaths of jobs getting replaced by AI, from computer programmers and financial analysts to even some trade jobs, the venture capital entrepreneur said humans shouldn’t be worried about a total wipeout. In fact, he insisted that some roles will still only be filled by humans, even if AI is better at the job.

          “The employment shifts everybody’s worried about are actually not going to happen at anywhere near the velocity people think,” Andreessen said, “because a significant percentage of jobs in the U.S. are licensed or unionized or civil service in a way where they literally cannot be replaced.”

          One of the few sectors that tech leaders like the “Godfather of AI” and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predict will be relatively unscathed from AI job disruption is healthcare: patients will always want a human connection for that service, and robots aren’t advanced enough to perform surgeries or related tasks.

          Andreessen echoed that sectors like medicine and law can’t be heavily integrated with AI yet due to regulations and licensing hurdles. A chatbot can’t make an argument in court, and an algorithm can’t treat an ailing human—but it does already have the processing power to outperform people in those roles.

          “ChatGPT is in fact a better doctor than your doctor today, with almost a hundred percent certainty,” he said. The investor pointed to self-driving cars as a parallel: “There’s always been this question of: Is the requirement perfection or is the requirement better than the median human driver? If you apply that same question into law or medicine, it’s just overwhelmingly clear that you’re better off today with doctor ChatGPT…You can’t live your life that way, because it can’t be your doctor.”

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