今年節(jié)日季,英國(guó)一批進(jìn)步經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家只有一個(gè)要求:在解釋英國(guó)日益增多的公共債務(wù)時(shí),不要使用個(gè)人信用卡作為比喻。
在進(jìn)步政策智庫(kù)(Progressive Policy Think Tank)發(fā)布的一封公開信中,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示,包括英國(guó)國(guó)家廣播公司在內(nèi),使用這種比喻解釋公共財(cái)政是“不恰當(dāng)?shù)摹薄?/p>
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為,這種比喻會(huì)給民眾留下一種過(guò)于簡(jiǎn)單化的印象,人們會(huì)以為國(guó)家債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)的原理與個(gè)人債務(wù)相同,借款數(shù)額會(huì)有硬性限制,而且人們?cè)诟鶕?jù)這種說(shuō)法理解政府為減輕新冠疫情產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本可以選擇的方案時(shí),會(huì)有局限性。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們指出:“信用卡透支意味著政府的借款能力正在接近其硬極限。但事實(shí)上并非如此。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們的一致共識(shí)是,目前政府不應(yīng)該專注于減少赤字,而是應(yīng)該通過(guò)必要的支出來(lái)保障新冠疫情之后的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”
新冠疫情使英國(guó)付出了巨大的代價(jià)。英國(guó)政府2020至2021年的財(cái)政赤字預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到GDP的19%左右,創(chuàng)下二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)的最高水平,因此關(guān)于如何解決這些成本和保障經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇等問(wèn)題,引起了各界的激烈討論。但是否應(yīng)該用個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語(yǔ)向英國(guó)民眾解釋這些成本的影響,一直以來(lái)都存在爭(zhēng)議,并且被賦予了深刻的政治意義。
英國(guó)20世紀(jì)80年代的首相瑪格麗特·撒切爾喜歡用家庭經(jīng)濟(jì)比喻國(guó)家財(cái)政。她早期經(jīng)常說(shuō)一句話:“任何女性只要知道經(jīng)營(yíng)一個(gè)家庭要面臨的問(wèn)題,就能夠更透徹地理解管理一個(gè)國(guó)家要解決的問(wèn)題。”這番話預(yù)示著她將大刀闊斧地調(diào)整英國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),包括削減公共服務(wù)。
英國(guó)前財(cái)政大臣喬治·奧斯本在削減公共支出期間,曾經(jīng)說(shuō)削減公共支出對(duì)于減少國(guó)家赤字是必要的,因?yàn)樯弦粚霉h政府已經(jīng)“透支了”國(guó)家的信用卡。
許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直認(rèn)為,使用個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語(yǔ)形容國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)造成誤導(dǎo):國(guó)家可以使用各種復(fù)雜的經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿,包括稅率和利率改革等,但個(gè)人沒(méi)有這些手段,因此當(dāng)個(gè)人手頭拮據(jù)的時(shí)候,政府依舊能夠借款和投資。
新冠疫情給包括英國(guó)在內(nèi)的歐洲國(guó)家造成了許多成本,例如大幅增加公共福利和服務(wù)、減稅以及向被臨時(shí)裁員的雇員發(fā)放巨額工資的帶薪休假計(jì)劃等。英國(guó)政府的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至11月中旬,隨著英國(guó)開始第二輪全國(guó)封鎖,約有960萬(wàn)人參與了該計(jì)劃。與此同時(shí),由于英國(guó)政府試圖結(jié)束混亂的脫歐程序,英國(guó)可能要面臨300年歷史上最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。
政府支出計(jì)劃的規(guī)模也動(dòng)搖了英國(guó)正統(tǒng)的政治觀念。在3月公布的這些計(jì)劃都具有重要的歷史意義,一方面是這些計(jì)劃的規(guī)模,另一方面是因?yàn)樗鼈兂鲎员J攸h政府,而多年來(lái),保守黨執(zhí)政期間一直在大力削減公共服務(wù)。英國(guó)政府在今年秋天公布了更多政府支出計(jì)劃,包括大力投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和在全國(guó)普及清潔能源等。
但如果將英國(guó)與美國(guó)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,你或許會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)用信用卡和家庭預(yù)算來(lái)比喻國(guó)家債務(wù)的奇怪之處。
截至9月,美國(guó)2020年的財(cái)政負(fù)債為3.1萬(wàn)億美元,占GDP的102%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
今年節(jié)日季,英國(guó)一批進(jìn)步經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家只有一個(gè)要求:在解釋英國(guó)日益增多的公共債務(wù)時(shí),不要使用個(gè)人信用卡作為比喻。
在進(jìn)步政策智庫(kù)(Progressive Policy Think Tank)發(fā)布的一封公開信中,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示,包括英國(guó)國(guó)家廣播公司在內(nèi),使用這種比喻解釋公共財(cái)政是“不恰當(dāng)?shù)摹薄?/p>
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為,這種比喻會(huì)給民眾留下一種過(guò)于簡(jiǎn)單化的印象,人們會(huì)以為國(guó)家債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)的原理與個(gè)人債務(wù)相同,借款數(shù)額會(huì)有硬性限制,而且人們?cè)诟鶕?jù)這種說(shuō)法理解政府為減輕新冠疫情產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本可以選擇的方案時(shí),會(huì)有局限性。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們指出:“信用卡透支意味著政府的借款能力正在接近其硬極限。但事實(shí)上并非如此。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們的一致共識(shí)是,目前政府不應(yīng)該專注于減少赤字,而是應(yīng)該通過(guò)必要的支出來(lái)保障新冠疫情之后的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”
新冠疫情使英國(guó)付出了巨大的代價(jià)。英國(guó)政府2020至2021年的財(cái)政赤字預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到GDP的19%左右,創(chuàng)下二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)的最高水平,因此關(guān)于如何解決這些成本和保障經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇等問(wèn)題,引起了各界的激烈討論。但是否應(yīng)該用個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語(yǔ)向英國(guó)民眾解釋這些成本的影響,一直以來(lái)都存在爭(zhēng)議,并且被賦予了深刻的政治意義。
英國(guó)20世紀(jì)80年代的首相瑪格麗特·撒切爾喜歡用家庭經(jīng)濟(jì)比喻國(guó)家財(cái)政。她早期經(jīng)常說(shuō)一句話:“任何女性只要知道經(jīng)營(yíng)一個(gè)家庭要面臨的問(wèn)題,就能夠更透徹地理解管理一個(gè)國(guó)家要解決的問(wèn)題。”這番話預(yù)示著她將大刀闊斧地調(diào)整英國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),包括削減公共服務(wù)。
英國(guó)前財(cái)政大臣喬治·奧斯本在削減公共支出期間,曾經(jīng)說(shuō)削減公共支出對(duì)于減少國(guó)家赤字是必要的,因?yàn)樯弦粚霉h政府已經(jīng)“透支了”國(guó)家的信用卡。
許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直認(rèn)為,使用個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語(yǔ)形容國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)造成誤導(dǎo):國(guó)家可以使用各種復(fù)雜的經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿,包括稅率和利率改革等,但個(gè)人沒(méi)有這些手段,因此當(dāng)個(gè)人手頭拮據(jù)的時(shí)候,政府依舊能夠借款和投資。
新冠疫情給包括英國(guó)在內(nèi)的歐洲國(guó)家造成了許多成本,例如大幅增加公共福利和服務(wù)、減稅以及向被臨時(shí)裁員的雇員發(fā)放巨額工資的帶薪休假計(jì)劃等。英國(guó)政府的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至11月中旬,隨著英國(guó)開始第二輪全國(guó)封鎖,約有960萬(wàn)人參與了該計(jì)劃。與此同時(shí),由于英國(guó)政府試圖結(jié)束混亂的脫歐程序,英國(guó)可能要面臨300年歷史上最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。
政府支出計(jì)劃的規(guī)模也動(dòng)搖了英國(guó)正統(tǒng)的政治觀念。在3月公布的這些計(jì)劃都具有重要的歷史意義,一方面是這些計(jì)劃的規(guī)模,另一方面是因?yàn)樗鼈兂鲎员J攸h政府,而多年來(lái),保守黨執(zhí)政期間一直在大力削減公共服務(wù)。英國(guó)政府在今年秋天公布了更多政府支出計(jì)劃,包括大力投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和在全國(guó)普及清潔能源等。
但如果將英國(guó)與美國(guó)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,你或許會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)用信用卡和家庭預(yù)算來(lái)比喻國(guó)家債務(wù)的奇怪之處。
截至9月,美國(guó)2020年的財(cái)政負(fù)債為3.1萬(wàn)億美元,占GDP的102%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
This holiday season, a group of progressive British economists are asking for just one thing: When it comes to explaining the country’s spiraling public debt, a personal credit card is not the metaphor you’re looking for.
The use of such metaphors to explain public finances, including by the U.K.’s state broadcaster, is “inappropriate,” the economists said in an open letter, released by the Progressive Policy Think Tank.
That’s because it gives the oversimplified impression that a country’s debt load works in the same way as an individual’s, with hard limits on borrowing, the economists argued—and that limits the understanding of what options the government has to ease the economic cost of the pandemic.
“Maxing out a credit card would imply that the government is approaching a hard limit on its ability to borrow. This is not the case,” they said. “It is the consensus amongst economists that the government should at this point in time not focus on reducing the deficit, but rather on delivering the spending necessary to secure a recovery from COVID-19.”
As the pandemic has wrought huge costs for the U.K.—the 2020–21 deficit is now expected to be about 19% of GDP, the largest ever in peacetime—the debate over how to manage such costs and ensure an economic recovery has been revived. But whether the impact of those costs should be explained to the British public in personal finance terms is actually a long-standing—and deeply politicized—source of argument in the U.K.
The household economy metaphor was a favorite of Margaret Thatcher, the country’s Prime Minister through the 1980s, who foreshadowed her restructuring of the British economy—including huge cuts to public services—with an early, often repeated quote: “Any woman who understands the problems of running a home will be nearer to understanding the problems of running a country.”
It then reappeared during a period of cuts to public spending under George Osborne, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer—the country’s chief financial minister—who said that such cuts were necessary to reduce the national deficit, as the previous Labour government had “maxed out” the country’s credit card.
Many economists have long argued that it’s misleading to use the language of personal finance to describe a country’s economy: Countries have access to a wide range of complex economic levers, including tax rates and interest rate changes, that people do not, allowing governments to borrow and invest when individuals themselves are strained.
In Europe, including the U.K., pandemic costs include huge expansions to public benefits and services, tax breaks, and furlough programs that have paid millions of salaries as employees were temporarily laid off. As of mid-November, in the midst of the country’s second nationwide lockdown, around 9.6 million people were on the program, according to government statistics. Meanwhile, the U.K. economy is facing down what is predicted to be the worst economic crisis in 300 years, just as the government attempts to finalize its messy divorce with the EU.
The scale of that spending has also overturned political orthodoxy in the U.K. Those spending programs—first announced in March—were historic both in their sheer size and also for coming from a Conservative government, which for years had presided over massive cuts to public services. More government spending, including a huge push to invest in infrastructure and a national expansion of clean energy, has been announced this fall.
But if you’re going to compare the U.K. to the U.S., a credit card and a household budget as metaphors for national debt may sound appropriately quaint.
As of September, the U.S. fiscal debt for 2020 was $3.1 trillion—102% of GDP.